19 Jan 2015: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2014 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5   7 15.3  8.1 Texas Christian          127 42   0 11.1  5.2 Monmouth                
  2  5   7 15.6  7.6 Oregon                   128 30   0 11.2  5.0 Bowling Green           
  3  6   7 15.1  7.4 Ohio State               129 51   0 10.3  5.8 Syracuse                
  4 68   6 14.5  7.6 Florida State            130 44   0 10.5  5.5 South Carolina State    
  5  6   6 14.0  8.0 Clemson                  131 32   0 10.9  5.2 Eastern Kentucky        
  6 21   6 13.9  7.8 Alabama                  132 42   0 11.6  4.6 Montana State           
  7  8   6 14.2  7.5 Michigan State           133 45   0 11.0  5.1 Air Force               
  8  8   6 14.5  7.2 Georgia                  134 21   0 10.4  5.5 Wofford                 
  9  9   6 15.3  6.6 Baylor                   135 41   0 11.8  4.3 California              
 10  9   5 13.2  7.8 Harvard                  136 31   0 11.3  4.7 Buffalo                 
 11 10   5 13.0  7.7 Stanford                 137 43   0 11.3  4.6 Arkansas State          
 12 23   4 12.9  7.7 North Dakota State       138 26   0 11.3  4.6 Indiana                 
 13 16   5 13.1  7.6 Louisiana State          139 57   0  9.8  5.7 Marist                  
 14 12   5 13.6  7.3 Wisconsin                140 52   0 10.4  5.2 Towson                  
 15 18   5 13.9  6.8 Boise State              141 46   0 12.1  3.9 Western Kentucky        
 16 35   4 13.5  6.9 Kansas State             142 27   0 10.7  5.0 Southern Illinois       
 17 16   4 13.5  6.8 Southern California      143 24   0 10.0  5.5 Wagner                  
 18 15   4 12.6  7.4 Florida                  144 49   0 10.3  5.1 McNeese State           
 19 21   4 13.9  6.5 Georgia Tech             145 17   0 11.0  4.6 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 20 52   4 13.1  7.0 Oklahoma                 146 40   0 11.2  4.3 Central Arkansas        
 21 47   3 12.6  6.9 Missouri                 147 35   0 11.5  4.1 Old Dominion            
 22 21   4 12.8  6.8 Louisville               148 42   0 10.5  4.9 Tennessee - Martin      
 23 12   4 13.4  6.4 Arizona State            149 57   0 10.7  4.7 Western Michigan        
 24 30   3 12.6  6.8 Arkansas                 150 31   0 10.6  4.8 Central Michigan        
 25 24   4 13.5  6.2 Texas A&M                151 37   0  9.8  5.4 Wake Forest             
 26 27   3 12.7  6.7 Utah                     152 27   0 10.1  5.1 Northeast Louisiana     
 27 63   3 12.9  6.6 Oklahoma State           153 42   0 11.2  4.3 Washington State        
 28 23   3 13.0  6.5 Villanova                154 32   0 10.2  5.0 Vanderbilt              
 29 51   3 13.0  6.5 South Carolina           155 45   0 11.3  4.1 Prairie View            
 30 41   3 13.2  6.3 Auburn                   156 43   0 10.3  4.9 Indiana State           
 31 34   3 12.6  6.6 Miami - Florida          157 30   0 10.5  4.7 The Citadel             
 32 52   3 13.0  6.3 Notre Dame               158 36   0  9.6  5.3 Georgetown              
 33 53   3 13.1  6.3 California - Los Angeles 159 33   0 10.5  4.6 Iowa State              
 34 35   3 12.7  6.5 Dartmouth                160 34   0 10.5  4.6 Illinois                
 35 25   3 12.0  7.0 Virginia Tech            161 19   0  9.9  5.0 Ohio                    
 36 19   3 13.0  6.3 New Hampshire            162 31   0  9.6  5.3 South Florida           
 37 20   3 13.4  5.9 Marshall                 163 15   0 10.1  4.8 Missouri State          
 38 40   3 13.2  6.0 Nebraska                 164 35   0 10.0  4.9 Northern Arizona        
 39 16   3 13.3  5.9 Fordham                  165 39   0 10.1  4.8 Purdue                  
 40 42   3 12.8  6.2 West Virginia            166 59   0 10.4  4.5 Texas State - San Marcos
 41 17   3 12.1  6.5 Central Florida          167 41   0 10.2  4.6 North Texas             
 42 40   3 12.7  6.1 Arizona                  168 35   0  9.7  4.9 Kansas                  
 43 28   3 12.3  6.2 Mississippi State        169 14   0  9.8  4.7 Central Connecticut     
 44 62   2 12.2  6.3 Montana                  170 25   0  9.8  4.8 Hawaii                  
 45 40   2 12.2  6.2 Washington               171 26   0  9.8  4.7 San Jose State          
 46 31   2 11.9  6.4 Northern Iowa            172 61   0  9.8  4.7 Jackson State           
 47 25   3 13.1  5.6 Yale                     173 27   0  9.5  4.9 Connecticut             
 48 41   2 11.5  6.7 Mississippi              174 46  -1 10.3  4.3 Northwestern State      
 49 31   2 12.5  5.9 Cincinnati               175 25  -1 10.2  4.3 Middle Tennessee State  
 50 36   2 11.5  6.6 Utah State               176 41  -1 10.5  4.0 Southern                
 51 17   2 11.3  6.7 Penn State               177 31  -1 10.1  4.4 Wyoming                 
 52 31   2 12.0  6.1 Jacksonville State       178 39  -1  9.9  4.6 Cornell                 
 53 42   2 12.4  5.8 Tennessee                179 51  -1 10.2  4.3 Army                    
 54 27   2 12.5  5.7 Coastal Carolina         180 56  -1  9.9  4.5 Butler                  
 55 29   2 11.9  6.1 Boston College           181 35  -1  9.4  4.8 Florida A&M             
 56 20   2 12.7  5.6 East Carolina            182 20  -1 10.3  4.1 Tulsa                   
 57 40   2 12.2  5.9 James Madison            183 38  -1 10.0  4.4 Alabama A&M             
 58 22   2 11.8  6.2 Brown                    184 36  -1  9.7  4.6 Charleston Southern     
 59 35   2 12.1  5.9 Pittsburgh               185 18  -1  9.9  4.5 South Alabama           
 60 18   2 12.1  6.0 Houston                  186 27  -1 10.3  4.1 Morgan State            
 61 41   2 12.2  5.8 Duke                     187 45  -1 10.5  3.9 Colorado                
 62 24   2 12.4  5.7 Brigham Young            188 25  -1  9.3  4.8 Kent State              
 63 41   2 11.9  6.0 Tennessee - Chattanooga  189 34  -1  9.7  4.5 Texas - El Paso         
 64 41   2 11.6  6.3 William & Mary           190 38  -1 10.4  3.9 Alabama - Birmingham    
 65 70   2 11.2  6.6 Texas                    191 43  -1  9.6  4.5 Akron                   
 66 28   2 12.2  5.8 Illinois State           192 88  -1 10.5  3.7 Mercer                  
 67 23   2 11.9  5.9 North Carolina State     193 25  -1  8.4  5.3 Norfolk State           
 68 64   2 11.3  6.4 Michigan                 194 56  -1  9.8  4.3 North Carolina Central  
 69 40   2 11.8  5.9 Rutgers                  195 46  -1 10.6  3.6 Sacramento State        
 70 16   2 12.0  5.7 Georgia Southern         196 30  -1  9.2  4.7 Furman                  
 71 51   2 12.0  5.7 Sam Houston State        197 84  -1 10.5  3.7 Abilene Christian       
 72 35   2 11.7  6.0 Minnesota                198 42  -1 10.0  4.0 Grambling               
 73 43   2 11.6  6.0 Iowa                     199 48  -1 10.3  3.8 Stephen F. Austin       
 74 29   2 11.6  5.9 Lafayette                200 26  -1  9.6  4.3 Southern Utah           
 75 22   1 12.0  5.6 Liberty                  201 30  -1  9.4  4.4 Western Illinois        
 76 53   1 12.0  5.5 Eastern Illinois         202 55  -1  9.1  4.7 Tulane                  
 77 39   1 11.5  5.9 Northwestern             203 25  -1  9.6  4.2 Florida Atlantic        
 78 15   1 11.4  5.9 Sacred Heart             204 50  -2 11.3  2.8 North Carolina - Charlot
 79 56   1 11.7  5.7 Jacksonville             205 41  -1  9.3  4.4 Florida International   
 80 55   1 12.0  5.5 Memphis                  206 29  -1  9.7  4.0 California - Davis      
 81 31   1 12.0  5.4 South Dakota State       207 31  -1 10.3  3.6 New Mexico              
 82 65   1 11.9  5.5 California Poly          208 53  -1  9.9  3.9 Howard                  
 83 43   1 11.3  5.9 Virginia                 209 21  -1  9.0  4.6 Elon                    
 84 34   1 11.7  5.6 Northern Illinois        210 34  -1  9.5  4.2 Hampton                 
 85 38   1 10.8  6.2 Stony Brook              211 40  -2  9.8  3.8 Southeast Missouri State
 86 38   1 11.0  6.0 Duquesne                 212 28  -2  9.6  3.9 Portland State          
 87 24   1 12.5  4.9 Toledo                   213 15  -2  9.7  3.8 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 88 26   1 11.6  5.6 Richmond                 214 19  -1  9.1  4.3 Southern Methodist      
 89 34   1 10.7  6.2 Temple                   215 35  -2 10.5  3.1 Murray State            
 90 54   1 12.3  5.0 North Carolina           216 41  -2  9.5  3.9 Massachusetts           
 91 50   1 11.3  5.8 Oregon State             217 31  -2  8.9  4.4 Rhode Island            
 92 35   1 11.5  5.6 Youngstown State         218 61  -2 10.3  3.1 Idaho State             
 93 28   1 11.7  5.4 Louisiana Tech           219 29  -2  9.0  4.2 North Dakota            
 94 32   1 12.6  4.7 Eastern Washington       220 21  -2  8.7  4.4 Texas - San Antonio     
 95 24   1 11.8  5.3 Appalachian State        221 72  -2 10.0  3.3 Lamar                   
 96 33   1 11.8  5.3 Princeton                222 30  -2  8.4  4.5 Robert Morris           
 97 21   1 10.9  5.9 San Diego State          223 14  -2  9.1  3.9 Tennessee Tech          
 98 28   1 11.4  5.5 Albany                   224 17  -2  9.2  3.8 Troy State              
 99 32   1 11.5  5.5 Lehigh                   225 17  -2  9.3  3.6 South Dakota            
100 61   1 10.8  6.0 Drake                    226 29  -2  9.4  3.5 Western Carolina        
101 42   1 11.2  5.7 Pennsylvania             227 28  -2  8.9  3.9 Miami - Ohio            
102 58   1 10.5  6.1 Maine                    228 35  -2  8.8  3.8 Texas Southern          
103 49   1 11.6  5.3 Maryland                 229 27  -2  8.5  3.9 Columbia                
104 50   1 12.2  4.9 Texas Tech               230 19  -3  8.7  3.8 Weber State             
105 47   1 11.5  5.4 Southeast Louisiana      231 42  -3  8.3  3.9 Gardner - Webb          
106 22   1 11.5  5.4 Navy                     232 34  -3  9.2  3.2 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
107 35   1 11.0  5.7 Bryant                   233 16  -3  8.3  3.6 Northern Colorado       
108 71   1 11.3  5.5 Dayton                   234 26  -3  8.4  3.6 Southern Mississippi    
109 26   1 11.0  5.7 Holy Cross               235 12  -3  8.0  3.7 Delaware State          
110 17   1 10.9  5.7 Colgate                  236 11  -3  7.5  3.8 Presbyterian            
111 55   1 11.7  5.0 Alcorn State             237 23  -3  8.2  3.3 Campbell                
112 53   1 11.1  5.5 Delaware                 238 13  -4  8.5  2.9 Georgia State           
113 46   1 11.5  5.1 Colorado State           239 67  -4  8.7  2.6 Stetson                 
114 53   0 10.6  5.8 North Carolina A&T       240 32  -4  8.6  2.6 Idaho                   
115 25   0 11.0  5.5 Samford                  241  9  -4  8.0  3.1 Mississippi Valley State
116 38   0 10.8  5.6 Bucknell                 242 93  -4  8.3  2.8 Valparaiso              
117 62   0 11.1  5.4 Alabama State            243 41  -4  8.8  2.3 Morehead State          
118 61   0 11.0  5.5 Bethune - Cookman        244 27  -5  8.5  2.4 Virginia Military       
119 29   0 11.0  5.4 Nevada - Reno            245 31  -4  8.5  2.4 New Mexico State        
120 76   0 10.9  5.4 San Diego                246 18  -5  7.7  2.6 Eastern Michigan        
121 37   0 11.4  5.0 Kentucky                 247 12  -5  7.1  2.4 Incarnate Word          
122 24   0 11.0  5.3 Louisiana - Lafayette    248 27  -6  7.4  2.1 Davidson                
123 35   0 11.0  5.3 Rice                     249  7  -6  6.5  2.4 Austin Peay             
124 19   0 11.2  5.1 Ball State               250  6  -8  6.3  1.2 Savannah State          
125 49   0 11.2  5.1 Fresno State             251  6  -8  6.0  0.8 Nicholls State          
126 67   0 10.8  5.4 Tennessee State          252  5  -9  5.4  0.3 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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