2014 Week 4 (11-13 Sep) Forecast for College Football Division IA & IAA

                                                                   ave score ROUNDED
rank projected winning team         rank projected losing team     TO NEAREST 3.5 POINTS
 --- ----------------------          --- ----------------------    ---------------------

90-100% chance of victory:

   3 Baylor                    over  151 Buffalo                    52.5 to 28.0
   2 Alabama                   over  235 Southern Mississippi       52.5 to  7.0
 108 Tennessee - Chattanooga   over  250 Austin Peay                42.0 to 10.5
  52 Duke                      over  196 Kansas                     38.5 to 21.0
   9 Louisiana State           over  170 Northeast Louisiana        42.0 to 14.0
  76 Montana                   over  219 South Dakota               38.5 to 14.0
  31 Northern Illinois         over  224 Nevada - Las Vegas         42.0 to 17.5
  16 North Dakota State        over  247 Incarnate Word             52.5 to 14.0
  27 Ohio State                over  192 Kent State                 38.5 to 10.5
   5 Oklahoma State            over  139 Texas - San Antonio        42.0 to 21.0
 116 Old Dominion              over  246 Eastern Michigan           52.5 to 24.5
   4 Oregon                    over  146 Wyoming                    52.5 to 21.0
  41 Southern Illinois         over  211 Southeast Missouri State   42.0 to 21.0
   7 Texas A&M                 over  228 Rice                       59.5 to 17.5

80-90% chance of victory:

  17 Brigham Young             over  106 Houston                    35.0 to 17.5
 114 Alabama State             over  245 Mississippi Valley State   38.5 to 10.5
  36 Arizona State             over  201 Colorado                   42.0 to 28.0
 107 Colorado State            over  202 California - Davis         31.5 to 17.5
 100 Eastern Kentucky          over  231 Morehead State             42.0 to 24.5
  30 Pittsburgh                over  227 Florida International      35.0 to 14.0
  75 Fordham                   over  220 Rhode Island               42.0 to 21.0
 177 Western Michigan          over  243 Idaho                      35.0 to 24.5
  47 San Diego                 over  206 Jacksonville               38.5 to 21.0
  40 Michigan                  over  222 Miami - Ohio               42.0 to 14.0
   8 Mississippi               over  157 Louisiana - Lafayette      45.5 to 21.0
  26 Missouri                  over   68 Central Florida            42.0 to 24.5
  56 Monmouth                  over  193 Wagner                     38.5 to 14.0
 179 Northern Colorado         over  251 Houston Baptist            49.0 to 21.0
  32 Notre Dame                over  197 Purdue                     38.5 to 17.5
   6 Oklahoma                  over   66 Tennessee                  42.0 to 24.5
  89 Richmond                  over  188 Hampton                    35.0 to 21.0
  23 Stanford                  over  173 Army                       38.5 to 21.0
  13 Texas Christian           over   81 Minnesota                  35.0 to 21.0
  20 Virginia Tech             over   54 East Carolina              38.5 to 28.0

70-80% chance of victory:

 190 Alabama - Birmingham      over  226 Alabama A&M                42.0 to 24.5
  86 Ball State                over  167 Indiana State              35.0 to 24.5
  10 Southern California       over  117 Boston College             31.5 to 21.0
 142 Bowling Green             over  183 Indiana                    38.5 to 31.5
 109 Coastal Carolina          over  118 South Carolina State       35.0 to 24.5
  28 Florida                   over   80 Kentucky                   31.5 to 17.5
 213 Gardner - Webb            over  251 Houston Baptist            38.5 to 21.0
  55 Iowa                      over  126 Iowa State                 31.5 to 21.0
  85 Lafayette                 over  159 Robert Morris              31.5 to 17.5
  79 Marshall                  over  166 Ohio                       38.5 to 24.5
  62 Miami - Florida           over  125 Arkansas State             31.5 to 21.0
 131 Missouri State            over  207 North Dakota               38.5 to 24.5
 135 Furman                    over  239 Presbyterian               24.5 to 14.0
 147 Southern                  over  218 Northwestern State         35.0 to 24.5
  59 South Dakota State        over  189 Southern Utah              31.5 to 17.5
 180 Texas - El Paso           over  229 New Mexico State           35.0 to 28.0
  69 Southeast Louisiana       over  204 Tulane                     38.5 to 24.5
  74 William & Mary            over  158 Norfolk State              24.5 to 14.0

60-70% chance of victory:

 215 Charleston Southern       over  242 Campbell                   31.5 to 21.0
 110 North Texas               over  149 Louisiana Tech             31.5 to 24.5
  46 Cincinnati                over   83 Toledo                     35.0 to 31.5
  60 Arizona                   over  101 Nevada - Reno              35.0 to 28.0
 200 Bethune - Cookman         over  221 Grambling                  24.5 to 17.5
 130 Central Michigan          over  182 Syracuse                   31.5 to 21.0
  35 Boise State               over  150 Connecticut                28.0 to 17.5
 143 Towson                    over  191 Delaware State             31.5 to 24.5
  22 Dayton                    over   99 Duquesne                   28.0 to 21.0
  29 Nebraska                  over  140 Fresno State               38.5 to 31.5
 175 Air Force                 over  237 Georgia State              31.5 to 21.0
  39 Georgia Tech              over   43 Georgia Southern           38.5 to 31.5
  51 Northern Iowa             over  155 Hawaii                     28.0 to 21.0
  38 Illinois State            over  121 Eastern Illinois           42.0 to 28.0
 138 Marist                    over  176 Georgetown                 24.5 to 17.5
 153 McNeese State             over  199 Prairie View               42.0 to 31.5
  34 Lehigh                    over   64 New Hampshire              38.5 to 35.0
 122 North Carolina - Charlot  over  223 North Carolina Central     42.0 to 31.5
  58 Tennessee State           over   94 Jackson State              31.5 to 28.0
  53 Texas                     over   98 California - Los Angeles   31.5 to 28.0
  82 Mississippi State         over  169 South Alabama              35.0 to 28.0
  21 Georgia                   over   37 South Carolina             31.5 to 28.0
  73 North Carolina State      over  186 South Florida              28.0 to 17.5
  57 Texas State - San Marcos  over  112 Navy                       35.0 to 24.5
  77 Texas Tech                over   84 Arkansas                   38.5 to 31.5
 127 Utah State                over  164 Wake Forest                24.5 to 17.5
 172 Vanderbilt                over  216 Massachusetts              24.5 to 17.5
  11 Louisville                over  119 Virginia                   35.0 to 24.5
 232 Virginia Military         over  240 Davidson                   31.5 to 24.5
  87 Washington                over  152 Illinois                   38.5 to 31.5
 103 Drake                     over  187 Western Illinois           24.5 to 21.0
  78 Youngstown State          over  123 Butler                     35.0 to 28.0

50-60% chance of victory:

  61 Maine                     over  102 Bryant                     21.0 to 21.0
 148 Delaware                  over  141 Colgate                    24.5 to 24.5
 124 North Carolina A&T        over  181 Elon                       28.0 to 24.5
 198 Tulsa                     over  217 Florida Atlantic           28.0 to 28.0
 133 Holy Cross                over  128 Central Connecticut        24.5 to 24.5
  95 Saint Francis - Pennsylv  over   92 James Madison              28.0 to 28.0
  19 West Virginia             over   48 Maryland                   31.5 to 31.5
 144 Middle Tennessee State    over  120 Western Kentucky           35.0 to 35.0
 115 Central Arkansas          over  137 Montana State              35.0 to 35.0
  90 Rutgers                   over   67 Penn State                 28.0 to 24.5
 194 Sacramento State          over  205 Weber State                28.0 to 28.0
 111 Sam Houston State         over  107 Colorado State             35.0 to 35.0
 185 Mercer                    over  236 Stetson                    52.5 to 42.0
 203 Abilene Christian         over  230 Troy State                 38.5 to 38.5
 160 Washington State          over  156 Portland State             38.5 to 35.0

NOTE: the above scores are rounded to the nearest 3.5 points. Exact predicted scores are not released until after game time

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