prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 116 Old Dominion 17 52.5, 246 Eastern Michigan 3 25.6
94% 9 Louisiana State 31 43.6, 170 Northeast Louisiana 0 14.3
94% 7 Texas A&M 38 58.9, 228 Rice 10 17.5
94% 4 Oregon 48 51.1, 146 Wyoming 14 20.0
94% 2 Alabama 52 51.6, 235 Southern Mississippi 12 7.7
93% 27 Ohio State 66 38.0, 192 Kent State 0 11.2
92% 31 Northern Illinois 48 41.4, 224 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 18.2
92% 5 Oklahoma State 43 43.7, 139 Texas - San Antonio 13 22.1
91% 108 Tennessee - Chattanoog 42 41.2, 250 Austin Peay 6 12.0
91% 76 Montana 28 37.3, 219 South Dakota 20 14.8
91% 41 Southern Illinois 50 42.4, 211 Southeast Missouri Sta 23 19.8
91% 3 Baylor 63 52.7, 151 Buffalo 21 28.3
90% 100 Eastern Kentucky 55 42.6, 231 Morehead State 13 23.1
90% 52 Duke 41 40.0, 196 Kansas 3 21.3
90% 40 Michigan 34 40.3, 222 Miami - Ohio 10 14.7
90% 16 North Dakota State 58 51.1, 247 Incarnate Word 0 13.4
89% 75 Fordham 54 43.3, 220 Rhode Island 7 22.1
89% 8 Mississippi 56 45.9, 157 Louisiana - Lafayette 15 20.9
87% 36 Arizona State 38 43.0, 201 Colorado 24 26.5
87% 23 Stanford 35 39.9, 173 Army 0 19.6
87% 13 Texas Christian 30 35.1, 81 Minnesota 7 20.2
86% 56 Monmouth 21 37.6, 193 Wagner 16 14.7
86% 26 Missouri 38 40.6, 68 Central Florida 10 24.4
85% 114 Alabama State 47 38.7, 245 Mississippi Valley Sta 22 11.5
85% 107 Colorado State 49 32.5, 202 California - Davis 21 16.0
85% 89 Richmond 42 33.7, 188 Hampton 17 19.9
85% 17 Brigham Young 33 35.8, 106 Houston 25 18.9
85% 6 Oklahoma 34 40.5, 66 Tennessee 10 23.5
84% 179 Northern Colorado 28 48.0, 251 Houston Baptist 20 22.2
83% 177 Western Michigan 45 35.9, 243 Idaho 33 25.2
82% 30 Pittsburgh 42 36.5, 227 Florida International 25 14.0
81% 32 Notre Dame 30 37.4, 197 Purdue 14 18.2
80% 79 Marshall 44 36.9, 166 Ohio 14 22.9
79% 131 Missouri State 38 38.1, 207 North Dakota 0 23.7
79% 62 Miami - Florida 41 31.8, 125 Arkansas State 20 21.0
77% 213 Gardner - Webb 34 39.0, 251 Houston Baptist 0 19.6
77% 180 Texas - El Paso 42 36.4, 229 New Mexico State 24 26.6
77% 28 Florida 36 31.2, 80 Kentucky 30 18.6
74% 85 Lafayette 50 30.4, 159 Robert Morris 3 16.9
74% 59 South Dakota State 26 30.3, 189 Southern Utah 6 17.5
73% 190 Alabama - Birmingham 41 40.9, 226 Alabama A&M 14 25.9
72% 74 William & Mary 29 26.1, 158 Norfolk State 14 13.9
71% 142 Bowling Green 45 39.7, 183 Indiana 42 31.9
71% 109 Coastal Carolina 30 34.1, 118 South Carolina State 3 26.0
70% 29 Nebraska 55 38.5, 140 Fresno State 19 30.6
69% 153 McNeese State 48 42.0, 199 Prairie View 16 32.5
69% 78 Youngstown State 44 34.8, 123 Butler 13 26.9
69% 38 Illinois State 34 40.3, 121 Eastern Illinois 15 27.5
68% 73 North Carolina State 49 29.1, 186 South Florida 17 18.9
68% 35 Boise State 38 26.3, 150 Connecticut 21 16.3
67% 215 Charleston Southern 34 31.2, 242 Campbell 10 20.1
67% 39 Georgia Tech 42 37.5, 43 Georgia Southern 38 32.1
66% 46 Cincinnati 58 36.1, 83 Toledo 34 30.5
65% 122 North Carolina - Charl 40 43.4, 223 North Carolina Central 28 30.8
65% 87 Washington 44 37.6, 152 Illinois 19 29.8
65% 60 Arizona 35 35.0, 101 Nevada - Reno 28 27.8
64% 172 Vanderbilt 34 23.4, 216 Massachusetts 31 15.8
63% 200 Bethune - Cookman 36 26.0, 221 Grambling 23 18.6
63% 175 Air Force 48 30.5, 237 Georgia State 38 22.4
63% 58 Tennessee State 35 33.1, 94 Jackson State 7 27.1
62% 232 Virginia Military 52 32.0, 240 Davidson 24 24.6
62% 127 Utah State 36 23.4, 164 Wake Forest 24 17.6
62% 82 Mississippi State 35 34.8, 169 South Alabama 3 29.4
61% 143 Towson 21 30.7, 191 Delaware State 7 26.0
60% 194 Sacramento State 42 29.3, 205 Weber State 31 26.4
60% 185 Mercer 49 51.4, 236 Stetson 0 43.0
60% 160 Washington State 59 38.2, 156 Portland State 21 35.9
59% 19 West Virginia 40 32.9, 48 Maryland 37 30.5
58% 148 Delaware 28 25.6, 141 Colgate 25 24.1
58% 124 North Carolina A&T 17 27.2, 181 Elon 12 25.7
57% 144 Middle Tennessee State 50 36.1, 120 Western Kentucky 47 34.8
56% 203 Abilene Christian 38 39.4, 230 Troy State 35 37.9
53% 133 Holy Cross 20 25.5, 128 Central Connecticut 7 24.9
50% 102 Bryant 13 21.0, 61 Maine 10 21.1
47% 137 Montana State 43 34.1, 115 Central Arkansas 33 34.5
45% 217 Florida Atlantic 50 26.5, 198 Tulsa 21 27.0
45% 92 James Madison 38 27.4, 95 Saint Francis - Pennsy 22 28.3
42% 107 Colorado State 47 33.5, 111 Sam Houston State 21 35.0
42% 67 Penn State 13 25.9, 90 Rutgers 10 27.3
40% 64 New Hampshire 45 34.1, 34 Lehigh 27 37.8
40% 37 South Carolina 38 28.9, 21 Georgia 35 31.4
39% 187 Western Illinois 38 20.6, 103 Drake 13 24.5
39% 176 Georgetown 27 18.6, 138 Marist 7 24.8
39% 98 California - Los Angel 20 28.0, 53 Texas 17 32.1
37% 149 Louisiana Tech 42 25.4, 110 North Texas 21 31.6
37% 84 Arkansas 49 31.4, 77 Texas Tech 28 36.8
35% 155 Hawaii 27 21.5, 51 Northern Iowa 24 27.1
35% 112 Navy 35 25.8, 57 Texas State - San Marc 21 35.5
33% 99 Duquesne 33 20.7, 22 Dayton 13 29.2
31% 182 Syracuse 40 20.2, 130 Central Michigan 3 29.9
30% 119 Virginia 23 24.1, 11 Louisville 21 36.4
29% 117 Boston College 37 20.8, 10 Southern California 31 32.9
26% 239 Presbyterian 10 14.1, 135 Furman 7 25.6
25% 218 Northwestern State 51 23.1, 147 Southern 27 34.2
25% 204 Tulane 35 25.9, 69 Southeast Louisiana 20 37.8
24% 167 Indiana State 27 23.5, 86 Ball State 20 36.1
24% 126 Iowa State 20 20.2, 55 Iowa 17 30.9
15% 206 Jacksonville 35 19.6, 47 San Diego 18 38.6
11% 54 East Carolina 28 27.7, 20 Virginia Tech 21 37.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 1.06 32 0.96 18 0.89 20 1.05 14 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 99 73 72.9 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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