2014 Week 6 (25-27 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 94%  82 Montana                 38 35.9,   230 Northern Colorado       13 11.7
 94%  31 Illinois State          55 50.7,   247 Austin Peay              6  9.3
 94%  21 Nebraska                45 41.7,   141 Illinois                14 22.9
 94%  11 Louisiana State         63 48.3,   233 New Mexico State         7 11.6
 94%   4 Georgia                 35 44.6,    94 Tennessee               32 22.3
 93%  13 Michigan State          56 37.0,   171 Wyoming                 14 12.8
 93%  10 Wisconsin               27 44.4,   178 South Florida           10 13.7
 92% 165 Central Arkansas        52 46.4,   249 Nicholls State          18 19.3
 92%  92 San Diego State         34 38.2,   218 Nevada - Las Vegas      17 21.1
 92%  44 Kansas State            58 38.0,   200 Texas - El Paso         28 16.2
 92%  40 Coastal Carolina        31 41.2,   202 Elon                     3 17.2
 92%   8 Ohio State              50 43.7,    63 Cincinnati              28 27.3
 91%  36 Louisville              20 35.2,   159 Wake Forest             10 17.0
 91%  22 Auburn                  45 43.4,   157 Louisiana Tech          17 22.1
 91%  20 Texas Christian         56 33.4,   210 Southern Methodist       0 11.6
 91%  14 Oklahoma State          45 44.6,   136 Texas Tech              35 23.4
 91%   7 Clemson                 50 45.5,    68 North Carolina          35 27.8
 91%   3 Baylor                  49 49.8,   116 Iowa State              28 28.0
 90%  33 Princeton               56 53.5,   241 Davidson                17 16.6
 89% 155 Central Connecticut     38 32.8,   239 Rhode Island            14 14.2
 89% 119 Montana State           29 35.7,   208 North Dakota            18 22.0
 89%  41 Northern Iowa           50 40.3,   228 Tennessee Tech           7 13.7
 89%  29 Virginia Tech           35 41.3,   173 Western Michigan        17 18.5
 88% 220 Delaware State          35 39.6,   252 Savannah State          10 16.0
 88%  30 Yale                    49 46.6,   181 Army                    43 21.4
 88%  16 Mississippi             24 41.6,   133 Memphis                  3 23.3
 86%  38 Georgia Southern        34 38.8,   125 Appalachian State       14 22.3
 85%  83 Tennessee State         27 29.4,   219 Florida A&M              7 10.5
 84% 146 Alcorn State            56 38.4,   212 Southern                16 25.9
 84% 103 Virginia                45 34.2,   198 Kent State              13 17.8
 84%  89 Jacksonville State      52 42.2,   226 Murray State            28 27.9
 84%  79 Alabama State           38 39.5,   174 Texas Southern           3 26.6
 84%  53 Albany                  42 30.7,   223 Columbia                 7 10.5
 83% 129 Southeast Louisiana     63 43.6,   245 Incarnate Word           7 21.2
 83% 124 California              59 38.7,   194 Colorado                56 28.1
 83%   1 Florida State           56 36.3,    66 North Carolina State    41 24.1
 82% 112 Toledo                  42 37.6,   167 Central Michigan        28 26.0
 81% 152 Buffalo                 35 33.3,   217 Miami - Ohio            27 21.9
 80%  76 Lafayette               35 35.8,   191 Wagner                  23 18.1
 79% 131 Mercer                  27 49.6,   236 Virginia Military       24 32.8
 79% 115 Fresno State            35 44.8,   227 New Mexico              24 33.9
 79% 111 Sam Houston State       42 38.8,   229 Lamar                   10 27.9
 79%  50 Texas                   23 30.1,   189 Kansas                   0 17.8
 78%  34 San Diego               20 30.3,   163 Marist                  16 16.6
 78%   2 Texas A&M               35 44.5,    37 Arkansas                28 33.0
 77% 183 Abilene Christian       59 53.3,   251 Houston Baptist         14 28.5
 77%  28 Southern California     35 30.2,    64 Oregon State            10 19.0
 76%  87 Tennessee - Chattanoog  38 33.0,   161 Samford                 24 25.1
 75% 184 Northeast Louisiana     22 30.4,   231 Troy State              20 19.4
 75% 122 North Carolina A&T      38 32.5,   224 Howard                  22 22.7
 74%  55 Temple                  36 31.1,   147 Connecticut             10 22.7
 73% 118 Rutgers                 31 32.0,   207 Tulane                   6 21.0
 72% 144 The Citadel             37 28.9,   201 Gardner - Webb          14 18.4
 72%  24 Villanova               41 37.0,   142 Pennsylvania             7 22.7
 71%  77 Eastern Washington      37 41.8,   209 California - Davis      14 27.1
 70%  23 Notre Dame              31 30.4,    86 Syracuse                15 23.0
 68% 204 South Alabama           34 34.2,   238 Idaho                   10 27.3
 68% 140 Bowling Green           47 32.6,   214 Massachusetts           42 25.5
 68% 104 Southern Illinois       34 29.4,   154 Western Illinois        17 21.9
 68%  56 Fordham                 45 34.5,   120 Holy Cross              16 29.2
 64% 180 Southern Utah           31 25.3,   221 Weber State             28 19.0
 64% 128 Kentucky                17 33.2,   153 Vanderbilt               7 26.5
 63% 248 Campbell                34 28.0,   250 Valparaiso              24 21.7
 63% 232 Alabama A&M             42 26.7,   244 Mississippi Valley Sta  20 21.4
 63% 149 Texas State - San Marc  37 32.4,   193 Tulsa                   34 27.5
 63%  71 Miami - Florida         22 34.0,    72 Duke                    10 30.8
 63%  65 Iowa                    24 28.0,   168 Purdue                  10 21.9
 62% 158 Jackson State           33 34.7,   222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   30 29.7
 61% 172 Norfolk State           15 25.8,   199 Morgan State            14 22.3
 61% 162 Rice                    41 29.4,   225 Southern Mississippi    23 24.8
 61%  97 Nevada - Reno           21 31.1,   160 San Jose State          10 28.0
 61%  19 Stanford                20 31.0,    61 Washington              13 27.3
 61%  18 Harvard                 22 24.6,    67 Brown                   14 21.1
 60% 105 Colgate                 19 23.2,   100 Georgetown               0 20.5
 60% 101 Bucknell                20 29.7,   135 Cornell                  7 26.8
 60%  81 Maryland                37 36.1,   138 Indiana                 15 33.5
 59% 108 Jacksonville            35 29.8,   151 Butler                   7 28.4
 57%  60 New Hampshire           52 29.1,    58 Dartmouth               19 28.0
 56%  73 William & Mary          27 20.6,    93 Stony Brook             21 19.4

 49% 148 South Carolina State    17 22.5,   190 Hampton                 10 22.7
 46% 213 Southeast Missouri Sta  31 30.6,   206 Tennessee - Martin      27 31.2
 43% 170 Northern Arizona        38 23.3,   130 California Poly         35 24.7
 40% 211 Grambling               26 31.7,   195 Prairie View            20 34.7
 40% 192 Charleston Southern     47 32.5,   187 North Carolina - Charl  41 36.6
 40% 121 Maine                   27 21.9,   126 Towson                  24 24.3
 40%  47 Colorado State          24 32.4,    57 Boston College          21 34.2
 39%  25 Missouri                21 27.4,    15 South Carolina          20 32.4
 38% 177 Ohio                    34 26.8,    95 Eastern Illinois        19 32.0
 37% 176 Florida Atlantic        41 26.8,   143 Texas - San Antonio     37 31.1
 37% 156 Indiana State           38 23.2,    88 Liberty                 19 27.6
 36% 139 Delaware                30 24.4,   109 James Madison           23 31.3
 35% 240 Idaho State             44 30.7,   188 Sacramento State        24 37.8
 34%  49 California - Los Angel  62 30.2,    39 Arizona State           27 35.2
 33% 132 Western Kentucky        36 31.5,    96 Navy                    27 36.3
 33%  90 Minnesota               30 22.5,    80 Michigan                14 27.8
 30% 175 Middle Tennessee State  41 31.7,   127 Old Dominion            28 40.6
 27% 216 Florida International   34 27.3,   169 Alabama - Birmingham    20 37.4
 25% 123 Monmouth                28 27.8,    85 Lehigh                  21 37.4
 17% 137 Northwestern            29 16.6,    48 Penn State               6 30.3
 13% 166 Air Force               28 23.0,    17 Boise State             14 37.2
 11% 235 Western Carolina        35 16.6,   145 Furman                  17 32.3
  9% 134 Washington State        28 23.3,    26 Utah                    27 40.0
  7% 205 Akron                   21 15.9,    45 Pittsburgh              10 37.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               11 0.63  28 1.07  20 1.13  23 1.02  21 0.98   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103  79  78.1 1.01

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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