prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 59 Monmouth 61 36.7, 235 Columbia 28 12.4
94% 51 Coastal Carolina 40 41.6, 241 Presbyterian 28 16.6
94% 44 Georgia Southern 47 48.6, 240 Idaho 24 18.6
94% 15 Wisconsin 38 39.8, 158 Illinois 28 17.6
94% 10 Villanova 44 45.2, 224 Rhode Island 21 12.4
92% 136 Navy 51 39.8, 243 Virginia Military 14 19.7
92% 9 Harvard 24 43.1, 188 Cornell 7 15.7
92% 1 Florida State 38 37.4, 100 Syracuse 20 20.7
91% 148 Central Arkansas 70 51.5, 252 Houston Baptist 0 18.4
91% 99 Bethune - Cookman 49 35.9, 222 Howard 12 19.0
90% 49 Temple 35 40.8, 203 Tulsa 24 20.4
90% 31 San Diego 31 52.0, 244 Stetson 23 19.5
90% 14 Oklahoma State 27 38.1, 190 Kansas 20 17.9
89% 69 Jacksonville 45 47.3, 238 Morehead State 26 24.9
88% 218 Florida A&M 24 32.4, 249 Savannah State 14 14.1
88% 191 Stephen F. Austin 42 46.7, 251 Nicholls State 20 26.2
88% 172 Mercer 49 47.2, 250 Austin Peay 21 17.8
88% 16 Stanford 34 37.2, 132 Washington State 17 21.7
87% 108 Arkansas State 52 35.9, 232 Georgia State 10 23.3
87% 19 North Dakota State 38 31.0, 101 Southern Illinois 10 15.7
86% 129 Drake 51 35.9, 239 Davidson 14 16.4
86% 91 Sacred Heart 52 30.7, 198 Robert Morris 13 13.2
86% 30 Marshall 49 45.1, 165 Middle Tennessee State 24 25.6
85% 121 Delaware 34 29.4, 220 Elon 24 14.8
85% 86 Kentucky 48 34.4, 189 Northeast Louisiana 14 18.9
85% 11 Michigan State 45 35.7, 147 Purdue 31 22.4
84% 193 Northwestern State 49 42.8, 247 Incarnate Word 12 20.4
84% 39 Fordham 60 37.8, 120 Pennsylvania 22 24.4
84% 29 Illinois State 20 35.8, 156 Indiana State 18 21.9
83% 55 Miami - Florida 55 34.7, 95 Cincinnati 34 24.9
82% 58 Northern Iowa 27 32.8, 196 South Dakota 16 22.0
82% 26 East Carolina 28 41.1, 169 South Florida 17 25.6
81% 124 North Carolina A&T 31 29.1, 186 Hampton 14 19.1
80% 115 Lafayette 24 27.6, 150 Georgetown 21 20.4
78% 128 California Poly 30 34.1, 226 Weber State 24 24.6
77% 127 Southeast Louisiana 61 36.4, 234 Lamar 34 23.1
77% 20 Notre Dame 50 34.6, 73 North Carolina 43 24.8
74% 67 Utah State 34 33.2, 140 Air Force 16 24.8
73% 68 Brown 27 26.1, 138 Holy Cross 24 15.4
72% 98 San Diego State 24 32.9, 202 New Mexico 14 24.9
71% 18 Oklahoma 31 28.8, 53 Texas 26 20.3
71% 8 Clemson 23 37.5, 22 Louisville 17 26.0
70% 166 Akron 29 30.4, 213 Miami - Ohio 19 21.7
70% 146 Vanderbilt 21 28.1, 194 Charleston Southern 20 20.5
70% 70 Eastern Kentucky 36 35.3, 97 Eastern Illinois 33 28.4
68% 106 Eastern Washington 42 40.8, 192 Southern Utah 30 31.4
68% 62 Iowa 45 32.6, 122 Indiana 29 26.9
68% 33 New Hampshire 32 31.9, 46 William & Mary 3 25.5
66% 111 Montana State 77 31.7, 187 California - Davis 37 25.5
66% 6 Oregon 42 37.3, 36 California - Los Angel 30 33.3
66% 2 Baylor 61 38.8, 4 Texas Christian 58 31.2
65% 174 Hawaii 38 28.7, 182 Wyoming 28 25.1
65% 104 James Madison 62 29.0, 110 Towson 7 24.0
65% 85 Dayton 31 27.3, 153 Marist 21 22.0
64% 207 Tennessee - Martin 17 29.9, 229 Tennessee Tech 10 26.4
64% 181 Texas - San Antonio 16 27.9, 201 Florida International 13 22.7
64% 135 The Citadel 63 43.1, 209 North Carolina - Charl 56 34.1
63% 80 Duquesne 28 28.1, 144 Central Connecticut 20 25.3
63% 75 Minnesota 24 25.8, 74 Northwestern 17 22.0
63% 57 Washington 31 39.4, 151 California 7 35.2
61% 233 Troy State 41 31.1, 237 New Mexico State 24 27.4
61% 117 South Dakota State 32 29.2, 123 Missouri State 28 25.6
61% 93 Stony Brook 19 21.0, 113 Maine 7 16.3
61% 90 Tennessee 45 30.7, 79 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 26.6
61% 47 West Virginia 37 37.2, 103 Texas Tech 34 34.4
61% 7 Georgia 34 33.7, 25 Missouri 0 31.9
61% 3 Alabama 14 29.9, 40 Arkansas 13 27.1
60% 208 Sacramento State 43 29.7, 230 Northern Colorado 38 28.0
60% 175 Wagner 46 26.7, 176 Saint Francis - Pennsy 39 23.9
60% 60 Houston 28 30.0, 126 Memphis 24 28.2
60% 17 Southern California 28 32.7, 38 Arizona 26 30.6
57% 48 Central Florida 31 26.8, 35 Brigham Young 24 26.0
56% 13 Louisiana State 30 23.4, 43 Florida 27 22.6
55% 88 Michigan 18 22.8, 50 Penn State 13 22.2
55% 61 Jacksonville State 27 28.4, 105 Tennessee State 20 27.6
54% 109 Iowa State 37 33.8, 118 Toledo 30 33.1
52% 197 North Dakota 24 27.7, 179 Portland State 16 27.5
50% 71 Colorado State 31 33.0, 84 Nevada - Reno 24 33.0
48% 206 Murray State 44 35.2, 195 Southeast Missouri Sta 41 35.7
46% 133 Bowling Green 31 29.3, 154 Ohio 13 29.7
41% 211 Tulane 12 23.3, 171 Connecticut 3 24.8
40% 157 Rice 41 30.5, 159 Army 21 32.3
40% 125 Liberty 55 27.1, 142 Appalachian State 48 28.7
39% 223 Massachusetts 40 23.9, 199 Kent State 17 27.4
39% 216 Southern 35 28.2, 212 Alabama A&M 34 31.8
39% 102 Colgate 31 29.9, 45 Princeton 30 35.1
39% 82 Boston College 30 26.2, 81 North Carolina State 14 29.3
39% 41 Mississippi State 38 28.5, 23 Auburn 23 30.7
37% 225 Texas - El Paso 42 32.4, 163 Old Dominion 35 37.1
37% 219 Delaware State 13 14.3, 185 Norfolk State 10 19.1
37% 210 Alabama - Birmingham 56 31.1, 137 North Texas 21 35.8
37% 180 Prairie View 34 29.1, 116 Alabama State 24 33.8
36% 119 Sam Houston State 38 28.5, 52 McNeese State 22 34.9
33% 21 Mississippi 35 28.6, 12 Texas A&M 20 35.6
32% 168 Western Michigan 42 27.9, 139 Ball State 38 33.0
32% 112 Bucknell 45 25.8, 96 Lehigh 24 31.0
32% 87 Richmond 41 26.4, 72 Albany 28 33.1
28% 228 Western Carolina 26 24.5, 141 Wofford 14 32.0
28% 94 Dartmouth 38 28.3, 63 Yale 31 35.3
25% 245 Campbell 28 20.7, 170 Butler 9 34.1
24% 200 Grambling 28 27.0, 114 Alcorn State 21 35.3
22% 78 Duke 31 29.5, 42 Georgia Tech 25 36.5
20% 215 North Carolina Central 48 15.5, 130 South Carolina State 35 26.8
12% 161 Western Illinois 30 19.3, 66 Youngstown State 24 32.7
11% 164 Central Michigan 34 22.3, 56 Northern Illinois 17 37.2
10% 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 27 18.8, 155 Jackson State 23 36.5
9% 246 Eastern Michigan 37 21.5, 131 Buffalo 27 42.1
8% 221 Nevada - Las Vegas 30 24.8, 89 Fresno State 27 38.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.11 39 0.97 17 0.87 25 1.07 14 0.85 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 77 79.0 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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