prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 94 Montana State 23 44.0, 224 Weber State 13 26.6
94% 81 Dayton 41 45.9, 245 Morehead State 7 19.4
94% 22 Southern California 56 41.5, 190 Colorado 28 19.1
93% 86 Richmond 37 37.9, 229 Rhode Island 0 18.2
93% 80 Bethune - Cookman 48 42.5, 248 Savannah State 20 14.9
93% 27 Central Florida 20 38.6, 198 Tulane 13 16.7
93% 7 Oregon 45 43.9, 55 Washington 20 27.6
93% 4 Ohio State 56 42.1, 79 Rutgers 17 21.4
92% 108 Drake 17 41.8, 249 Valparaiso 9 16.9
92% 73 Montana 42 33.3, 218 California - Davis 28 12.5
92% 13 North Dakota State 34 32.8, 161 Indiana State 17 11.7
92% 12 Louisiana State 41 37.1, 76 Kentucky 3 21.9
91% 107 Cincinnati 41 34.8, 231 Southern Methodist 3 20.3
91% 6 Harvard 24 37.1, 101 Lafayette 14 17.7
90% 96 Eastern Washington 26 48.5, 232 Northern Colorado 18 27.2
90% 85 Northern Illinois 51 36.6, 227 Miami - Ohio 41 17.6
90% 21 Louisville 30 32.4, 99 North Carolina State 18 17.4
89% 132 Alcorn State 40 35.5, 212 Texas Southern 25 23.6
89% 1 Florida State 31 36.5, 20 Notre Dame 27 22.6
88% 36 Marshall 45 37.1, 186 Florida International 13 21.8
88% 33 South Carolina 41 34.1, 173 Furman 10 13.5
88% 29 Boise State 37 38.3, 90 Fresno State 27 25.7
88% 15 Mississippi 34 33.6, 71 Tennessee 3 20.5
87% 182 Stephen F. Austin 59 50.3, 252 Houston Baptist 27 23.7
87% 169 South Alabama 30 39.1, 239 Georgia State 27 24.2
87% 112 Missouri State 31 35.6, 204 South Dakota 12 22.2
86% 46 Texas 48 30.4, 116 Iowa State 45 18.6
85% 83 Minnesota 39 31.3, 157 Purdue 38 21.0
84% 158 Pennsylvania 31 31.3, 238 Columbia 7 16.1
83% 236 Lamar 63 36.6, 251 Nicholls State 21 25.2
83% 197 Massachusetts 36 38.1, 246 Eastern Michigan 14 25.3
83% 119 Texas Tech 34 33.3, 170 Kansas 21 22.3
83% 9 Texas Christian 42 37.7, 16 Oklahoma State 9 28.5
82% 52 San Diego 27 34.9, 206 Butler 21 18.9
79% 14 Michigan State 56 40.0, 122 Indiana 17 30.5
78% 69 Stony Brook 20 23.7, 199 Elon 3 13.1
78% 2 Georgia 45 37.5, 34 Arkansas 32 28.6
77% 127 North Carolina A&T 33 25.8, 211 Delaware State 20 16.7
77% 67 Yale 45 33.5, 105 Colgate 31 25.5
76% 160 Prairie View 52 36.8, 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 19 26.5
76% 30 California - Los Angel 36 40.1, 150 California 34 30.8
75% 87 Jacksonville 30 46.2, 235 Stetson 7 31.4
74% 113 Bryant 42 35.6, 183 Saint Francis - Pennsy 27 28.1
74% 84 McNeese State 31 43.9, 177 Abilene Christian 20 30.5
73% 159 Air Force 35 32.7, 196 New Mexico 31 24.9
73% 145 Louisiana Tech 27 32.8, 203 Texas - San Antonio 20 23.8
72% 54 Illinois State 37 29.4, 154 Western Illinois 34 21.4
71% 5 Clemson 17 33.6, 59 Boston College 13 26.0
69% 178 Morgan State 21 31.4, 207 North Carolina Central 20 26.1
69% 109 San Diego State 20 28.4, 171 Hawaii 10 21.0
68% 131 Appalachian State 53 34.7, 230 Troy State 14 27.3
68% 92 Lehigh 31 32.5, 175 Cornell 14 26.2
68% 57 Maryland 38 27.9, 60 Iowa 31 21.8
68% 19 Villanova 35 30.7, 77 William & Mary 31 23.1
67% 82 Youngstown State 26 29.9, 95 Southern Illinois 14 24.8
67% 56 Princeton 27 32.1, 78 Brown 16 26.1
67% 24 Nebraska 38 31.1, 72 Northwestern 17 25.4
65% 221 Gardner - Webb 47 29.2, 241 Virginia Military 41 23.4
65% 10 Alabama 59 32.7, 18 Texas A&M 0 27.7
64% 98 Syracuse 30 25.1, 149 Wake Forest 7 20.5
64% 68 Colorado State 16 32.7, 64 Utah State 13 28.3
63% 217 Grambling 63 34.1, 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 39 28.7
63% 120 Eastern Illinois 52 38.1, 193 Southeast Missouri Sta 13 33.2
62% 134 California Poly 56 36.9, 201 Sacramento State 27 32.8
61% 164 Ohio 23 25.7, 179 Akron 20 22.9
61% 125 Southeast Louisiana 41 35.8, 121 Central Arkansas 24 32.6
61% 104 Dartmouth 24 30.1, 123 Holy Cross 21 25.9
60% 237 Idaho 29 34.7, 240 New Mexico State 17 33.1
60% 156 South Florida 38 27.0, 202 Tulsa 30 24.6
60% 153 San Jose State 27 27.1, 180 Wyoming 20 25.6
60% 63 Duke 20 31.2, 70 Virginia 13 29.9
57% 244 Campbell 28 30.4, 243 Davidson 27 29.1
56% 106 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 27.1, 140 The Citadel 14 26.3
54% 65 North Carolina 48 35.6, 45 Georgia Tech 43 35.1
53% 187 Middle Tennessee State 34 36.3, 174 Alabama - Birmingham 22 35.8
53% 35 Utah 29 27.0, 62 Oregon State 23 26.5
44% 166 Northern Arizona 21 27.8, 195 Portland State 17 28.5
44% 58 Sacred Heart 23 25.9, 91 Duquesne 20 26.9
41% 88 Houston 31 27.6, 51 Temple 10 28.8
40% 100 Albany 20 22.9, 93 Maine 7 25.0
40% 47 Arizona State 26 27.4, 17 Stanford 10 28.9
39% 184 Northwestern State 31 29.6, 103 Sam Houston State 27 33.1
39% 135 Wofford 24 24.2, 143 Samford 20 27.8
39% 89 Pittsburgh 21 23.0, 31 Virginia Tech 16 26.2
37% 234 Idaho State 56 31.7, 189 Southern Utah 28 35.7
37% 214 Kent State 39 25.4, 181 Army 17 29.4
37% 191 Norfolk State 21 15.7, 194 Hampton 13 20.2
37% 144 Ball State 32 25.9, 129 Central Michigan 29 30.0
36% 225 Florida A&M 31 20.3, 226 Howard 28 24.5
35% 37 Missouri 42 20.3, 32 Florida 13 26.5
34% 220 Western Carolina 35 32.4, 163 Mercer 21 42.9
33% 40 West Virginia 41 36.3, 3 Baylor 27 43.5
32% 205 Robert Morris 27 20.4, 146 Central Connecticut 24 26.6
31% 208 Florida Atlantic 45 29.3, 137 Western Kentucky 38 35.0
29% 176 Louisiana - Lafayette 34 29.9, 162 Texas State - San Marc 10 36.0
27% 141 Towson 24 21.7, 124 Delaware 17 28.3
26% 152 Western Michigan 26 29.1, 114 Bowling Green 14 36.4
24% 115 Nevada - Reno 42 22.6, 41 Brigham Young 35 33.6
23% 117 South Dakota State 31 20.2, 49 Northern Iowa 28 29.9
19% 228 Southern Mississippi 30 23.9, 168 North Texas 20 33.9
16% 242 Presbyterian 7 17.5, 185 Charleston Southern 3 31.1
16% 192 Tennessee - Martin 21 17.0, 118 Tennessee State 16 29.4
16% 23 Kansas State 31 25.0, 8 Oklahoma 30 37.0
15% 250 Austin Peay 20 20.0, 222 Murray State 13 36.0
11% 223 Tennessee Tech 39 19.7, 66 Eastern Kentucky 31 34.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.12 35 0.93 19 0.98 24 0.87 16 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 76 78.4 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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