2014 Week 10 (21-25 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 94% 101 Northern Illinois       28 42.9,   245 Eastern Michigan        17 22.2
 94%  89 Eastern Kentucky        33 37.0,   214 Southeast Missouri Sta  21 21.4
 94%  55 Jacksonville State      49 40.7,   215 Tennessee Tech           3 20.7
 94%  39 Marshall                35 46.0,   195 Florida Atlantic        16 23.3
 94%   4 Texas Christian         82 46.8,   114 Texas Tech              27 22.1
 93% 174 Tennessee - Martin      37 34.3,   249 Austin Peay              7 13.3
 93%  83 Colorado State          45 36.5,   185 Wyoming                 31 22.0
 93%  76 Coastal Carolina        43 37.3,   216 Charleston Southern     22 18.9
 93%  16 Villanova               48 45.9,   202 Morgan State            28 18.0
 93%  10 Michigan State          35 34.7,    68 Michigan                11 18.1
 93%   8 Clemson                 16 36.5,    79 Syracuse                 6 19.7
 92% 209 North Carolina Central  42 40.3,   250 Savannah State          14 21.0
 92% 145 Wofford                 38 37.4,   244 Virginia Military        3 18.6
 92%  54 Georgia Southern        69 42.0,   239 Georgia State           31 21.4
 92%  25 Missouri                24 36.5,   140 Vanderbilt              14 17.8
 92%  14 North Dakota State      47 33.5,   205 South Dakota             7 13.6
 91%  63 Utah State              34 34.6,   218 Nevada - Las Vegas      20 17.3
 91%   5 Oregon                  59 46.2,   147 California              41 26.4
 90%  86 McNeese State           41 41.8,   248 Incarnate Word          21 16.0
 90%  35 California - Los Angel  40 42.0,   188 Colorado                37 28.0
 90%  20 Nebraska                42 37.5,   109 Rutgers                 24 20.6
 89%  56 Arkansas                45 42.2,   179 Alabama - Birmingham    17 26.5
 89%  43 East Carolina           31 38.2,   171 Connecticut             21 19.2
 89%  30 New Hampshire           28 32.6,    77 Stony Brook             20 19.9
 88% 122 North Carolina A&T      40 28.1,   212 Florida A&M             21 13.9
 88% 117 Liberty                 34 37.6,   225 Gardner - Webb           0 22.6
 88%  13 Wisconsin               52 35.7,    59 Maryland                 7 23.6
 87% 112 Toledo                  42 42.0,   199 Massachusetts           35 27.2
 87%  98 Bryant                  42 35.9,   198 Robert Morris            9 19.0
 86%  66 Richmond                30 31.5,   203 Elon                    10 19.2
 86%  21 Kansas State            23 34.3,    48 Texas                    0 22.2
 85% 149 Marist                  27 33.5,   242 Campbell                20 16.2
 85%  96 Dartmouth               27 35.8,   234 Columbia                 7 20.2
 85%  70 Illinois State          21 33.4,   123 Missouri State           7 24.2
 85%  62 Brown                   42 28.7,   165 Cornell                 16 15.8
 84% 108 Maine                   20 27.6,   232 Rhode Island            14 16.0
 84%   1 Alabama                 34 32.7,    85 Tennessee               20 18.8
 79% 169 South Alabama           27 38.0,   229 Troy State              13 26.4
 79%   3 Ohio State              31 33.7,    44 Penn State              24 25.5
 78%  82 Cincinnati              34 34.9,   146 South Florida           17 24.0
 78%  61 Boston College          23 26.2,   163 Wake Forest             17 16.6
 77%  22 Boise State             55 33.8,    42 Brigham Young           30 23.7
 77%  19 Stanford                38 27.2,    67 Oregon State            14 16.5
 75%  41 Arizona                 59 38.4,   134 Washington State        37 32.6
 74% 125 Drake                   21 28.6,   176 Butler                  19 19.2
 74% 118 Sam Houston State       38 40.7,   184 Abilene Christian       21 31.1
 74%  51 Northern Iowa           27 27.8,   166 Western Illinois        13 20.4
 73% 241 Morehead State          48 36.4,   247 Valparaiso              47 28.1
 72% 136 Memphis                 48 33.3,   222 Southern Methodist      10 20.9
 72%  78 Yale                    43 37.2,   135 Pennsylvania            21 27.6
 72%  46 San Diego               40 31.2,    74 Dayton                  29 24.2
 71%  71 Albany                  24 30.0,   115 Colgate                 17 23.0
 71%  32 Auburn                  42 35.8,    26 South Carolina          35 29.5
 70% 152 Western Michigan        42 29.2,   173 Ohio                    21 22.4
 70% 138 Central Arkansas        58 37.6,   180 Northwestern State      35 30.5
 69% 148 Rice                    41 32.3,   177 North Texas             21 26.0
 69% 124 Navy                    41 31.1,   142 San Jose State          31 26.2
 69%   9 Harvard                 49 33.1,    45 Princeton                7 28.1
 68%  53 James Madison           48 45.0,   208 North Carolina - Charl  40 35.6
 67% 100 Eastern Illinois        28 31.2,   116 Tennessee State          3 25.5
 67%  72 William & Mary          31 27.8,   103 Delaware                17 21.2
 66%  81 Nevada - Reno           26 32.1,   168 Hawaii                  18 26.6
 66%  12 Louisiana State         10 27.7,    18 Mississippi              7 21.3
 65%  38 Central Florida         34 29.4,    75 Temple                  14 22.9
 65%  28 Fordham                 48 37.6,    80 Lehigh                  27 32.7
 64% 143 Western Kentucky        66 42.7,   151 Old Dominion            51 37.9
 64%  92 Tennessee - Chattanoog  38 41.7,   189 Mercer                  31 31.5
 64%  29 Utah                    24 30.2,    23 Southern California     21 26.6
 63% 153 Ball State              35 28.5,   172 Akron                   21 24.6
 63% 133 Louisiana Tech          31 32.0,   201 Southern Mississippi    20 27.5
 63%  37 Mississippi State       45 30.9,    91 Kentucky                31 27.5
 61% 190 Portland State          30 29.1,   230 Weber State             17 26.8
 61% 111 Bucknell                22 21.8,   150 Georgetown              17 19.3
 60% 236 Stetson                 40 37.3,   246 Davidson                34 34.0
 60% 183 Texas State - San Marc  22 27.6,   204 Northeast Louisiana     18 26.0
 60% 132 Alcorn State            77 34.6,   162 Prairie View            48 32.5
 60% 126 Central Michigan        20 31.3,   155 Buffalo                 14 29.8
 59% 192 Hampton                 23 23.4,   221 Delaware State           0 22.1
 59% 127 Samford                 45 25.2,   167 Furman                   0 23.7
 55% 207 Miami - Ohio            10 26.1,   178 Kent State               3 25.2
 55%  60 North Carolina          28 34.8,   104 Virginia                27 34.1
 53% 231 Idaho State             46 35.5,   228 Northern Colorado       12 35.1

 49%  33 Arizona State           24 33.2,    47 Washington              10 33.3
 47%  73 Youngstown State        30 28.9,   110 South Dakota State      27 29.2
 47%  49 Georgia Tech            56 30.4,    64 Pittsburgh              28 30.9
 45% 252 Houston Baptist         31 31.3,   251 Nicholls State          21 32.1
 40% 226 Southern Utah           35 21.8,   187 North Dakota            17 23.8
 40% 128 California Poly         41 30.8,    57 Montana                 21 33.7
 39% 235 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   38 29.3,   227 Texas Southern          37 35.0
 39% 175 Stephen F. Austin       27 36.9,   120 Southeast Louisiana     17 40.4
 38% 144 South Carolina State    20 20.6,    84 Bethune - Cookman       14 23.9
 38% 141 Illinois                28 27.4,    90 Minnesota               24 30.4
 37% 223 Western Carolina        29 28.0,   161 The Citadel             15 32.3
 37% 159 Louisiana - Lafayette   55 28.0,   107 Arkansas State          40 31.6
 37% 158 Northern Arizona        28 31.4,   102 Eastern Washington      27 36.1
 37%  36 West Virginia           34 31.7,    31 Oklahoma State          10 36.5
 36% 217 Texas - El Paso         34 26.2,   200 Texas - San Antonio      0 30.8
 34% 170 Wagner                  20 24.2,   137 Central Connecticut     10 30.2
 29% 156 Indiana State           41 21.3,    99 Southern Illinois       26 28.9
 26% 121 Holy Cross              24 23.3,    87 Lafayette               14 29.0
 24%  40 Miami - Florida         30 22.7,    24 Virginia Tech            6 30.5
 22% 210 Alabama A&M             37 23.0,   129 Alabama State           36 32.0
 20% 197 Southern                42 28.6,   160 Jackson State           28 35.8
 10% 196 Saint Francis - Pennsy  30 22.6,    65 Sacred Heart            27 39.1
  6% 238 Presbyterian            18 17.5,    50 Monmouth                12 40.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 1.09  33 1.00  22 1.10  20 1.04  20 1.03   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105  82  78.8 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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