prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 142 Western Michigan 51 39.9, 245 Eastern Michigan 7 18.4
94% 108 Sam Houston State 76 51.5, 252 Houston Baptist 0 15.8
94% 107 North Carolina A&T 34 45.6, 250 Savannah State 0 14.6
94% 59 San Diego 32 45.8, 246 Valparaiso 27 18.1
94% 46 Brigham Young 42 39.7, 225 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 15.7
94% 30 Fordham 52 38.4, 148 Georgetown 7 20.2
94% 22 Boise State 38 39.0, 131 San Diego State 29 19.5
93% 72 Jacksonville 45 41.4, 243 Campbell 19 15.2
93% 32 Marshall 41 41.7, 136 Rice 14 25.3
93% 29 New Hampshire 43 37.9, 104 Delaware 14 23.2
93% 21 Southern California 38 42.4, 124 California 30 27.0
93% 1 Alabama 25 34.1, 43 Mississippi State 20 17.5
92% 5 Texas Christian 34 40.4, 165 Kansas 30 18.1
91% 192 Northwestern State 48 47.6, 251 Nicholls State 21 18.2
91% 82 Stony Brook 35 30.9, 224 Rhode Island 14 12.7
91% 62 Utah State 28 38.0, 205 New Mexico 21 22.9
91% 23 Villanova 48 36.6, 96 Albany 31 22.2
89% 67 Illinois State 45 35.4, 213 South Dakota 26 21.8
89% 7 Harvard 34 31.7, 114 Pennsylvania 24 16.7
88% 204 Southeast Missouri Sta 42 36.6, 249 Austin Peay 7 19.6
88% 169 Southern 44 37.1, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 19.9
88% 160 Marist 38 32.0, 247 Davidson 7 13.2
88% 120 Alcorn State 56 45.4, 227 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 6 26.8
88% 58 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 35.0, 222 Tennessee Tech 17 18.7
88% 33 Central Florida 31 41.3, 182 Tulsa 7 21.5
88% 8 Wisconsin 59 34.7, 24 Nebraska 24 24.1
88% 4 Ohio State 31 39.8, 79 Minnesota 24 27.9
87% 137 Central Michigan 34 30.5, 226 Miami - Ohio 27 17.5
87% 102 Eastern Kentucky 43 41.1, 223 Murray State 36 23.2
86% 73 Coastal Carolina 52 37.0, 128 Monmouth 21 27.2
84% 113 Bowling Green 30 31.8, 184 Kent State 20 19.7
83% 91 Montana State 44 44.5, 215 Idaho State 39 31.5
83% 14 North Dakota State 45 30.4, 147 Missouri State 10 17.9
83% 9 Oklahoma 42 39.6, 133 Texas Tech 30 27.8
81% 93 Dayton 21 33.3, 200 Butler 14 23.8
81% 87 Montana 35 29.3, 199 Southern Utah 17 20.4
80% 111 South Dakota State 59 30.6, 171 Western Illinois 24 22.0
79% 101 Memphis 38 30.5, 195 Tulane 7 21.1
79% 76 Tennessee 50 35.0, 115 Kentucky 16 27.2
79% 52 Iowa 30 31.4, 152 Illinois 14 24.8
77% 109 North Carolina State 42 27.0, 155 Wake Forest 13 18.3
77% 88 Lehigh 30 30.6, 125 Colgate 27 23.7
76% 49 Arizona 27 32.9, 63 Washington 26 27.3
76% 12 Michigan State 37 32.9, 77 Maryland 15 25.7
75% 218 Lamar 31 42.5, 248 Incarnate Word 20 27.8
74% 44 Penn State 30 23.6, 85 Temple 13 14.7
72% 90 Maine 24 22.7, 193 Elon 17 15.9
71% 156 South Florida 14 27.2, 229 Southern Methodist 13 18.3
71% 75 Northern Illinois 27 38.0, 116 Toledo 24 32.1
69% 170 Jackson State 15 29.3, 234 Texas Southern 10 23.0
68% 94 Southeast Louisiana 28 34.5, 135 McNeese State 9 27.2
67% 206 Weber State 34 27.8, 230 Northern Colorado 21 21.8
67% 158 Saint Francis - Pennsy 40 29.4, 210 Robert Morris 7 23.9
66% 219 Texas - San Antonio 12 26.6, 233 Southern Mississippi 10 21.1
66% 183 Cornell 30 24.6, 231 Columbia 27 18.6
66% 2 Florida State 30 34.0, 27 Miami - Florida 26 30.4
65% 232 Western Carolina 42 34.1, 240 Virginia Military 27 28.8
65% 13 Georgia 34 38.9, 18 Auburn 7 32.2
64% 187 Sacramento State 48 33.4, 202 Portland State 41 29.3
64% 50 Jacksonville State 27 36.9, 51 Eastern Illinois 20 32.6
63% 172 Buffalo 55 28.2, 189 Akron 24 25.5
62% 181 Western Kentucky 52 36.4, 190 Army 24 32.3
62% 127 Rutgers 45 32.1, 144 Indiana 23 29.3
62% 83 North Carolina 40 35.1, 89 Pittsburgh 35 31.7
62% 61 Yale 44 37.4, 54 Princeton 30 34.3
61% 146 Louisiana - Lafayette 34 28.6, 167 Northeast Louisiana 27 26.2
61% 106 Samford 20 30.0, 154 The Citadel 17 27.4
61% 103 Alabama State 37 29.3, 177 Grambling 23 26.8
61% 47 Northern Iowa 40 27.0, 110 Southern Illinois 21 23.8
60% 217 Troy State 34 32.7, 237 Idaho 17 31.1
60% 178 Texas - El Paso 35 31.2, 159 North Texas 17 29.6
60% 162 Prairie View 38 35.3, 201 Alabama A&M 35 33.1
60% 81 Sacred Heart 14 27.7, 64 Bryant 7 25.8
60% 78 William & Mary 37 25.5, 129 Towson 14 23.4
60% 55 Dartmouth 44 26.1, 56 Brown 21 24.1
57% 151 Wagner 23 21.6, 130 Duquesne 13 20.6
55% 239 Morehead State 41 40.3, 235 Stetson 18 39.4
54% 197 South Alabama 24 28.4, 179 Texas State - San Marc 20 27.8
54% 25 Georgia Tech 28 33.5, 10 Clemson 6 33.0
50% 69 Cincinnati 54 33.5, 48 East Carolina 46 33.5
43% 220 Florida A&M 41 18.8, 221 Delaware State 7 19.6
43% 196 North Carolina Central 19 21.4, 180 Norfolk State 14 22.3
40% 209 Florida International 38 25.2, 168 Middle Tennessee State 28 27.9
40% 132 Air Force 45 28.3, 70 Nevada - Reno 38 29.7
40% 45 Virginia Tech 17 25.6, 53 Duke 16 27.0
39% 238 Presbyterian 14 19.1, 236 Gardner - Webb 7 22.1
39% 198 Furman 31 19.3, 143 Wofford 14 22.4
38% 123 Bucknell 31 22.4, 98 Holy Cross 24 25.7
38% 26 Missouri 34 28.9, 35 Texas A&M 27 32.4
37% 191 Abilene Christian 37 37.4, 174 Stephen F. Austin 35 42.4
36% 194 Massachusetts 24 29.0, 134 Ball State 10 32.8
36% 121 Appalachian State 37 25.5, 99 Arkansas State 32 31.4
36% 60 Arkansas 17 23.9, 11 Louisiana State 0 27.9
36% 41 Texas 28 23.2, 36 Oklahoma State 7 28.1
35% 68 James Madison 55 25.7, 57 Richmond 20 30.5
32% 208 Morgan State 24 23.9, 122 South Carolina State 21 29.4
32% 39 Utah 20 20.6, 17 Stanford 17 26.4
31% 228 North Dakota 30 20.3, 149 Northern Arizona 28 26.7
29% 207 Howard 28 24.7, 175 Central Connecticut 25 31.7
29% 38 South Carolina 23 23.4, 28 Florida 20 30.8
28% 86 Oregon State 35 29.4, 20 Arizona State 27 36.2
26% 188 Hawaii 13 24.0, 145 San Jose State 0 31.1
26% 118 Navy 52 30.8, 37 Georgia Southern 19 36.0
22% 211 Hampton 40 20.8, 92 Bethune - Cookman 35 29.0
20% 164 Indiana State 27 22.8, 84 Youngstown State 24 32.9
19% 212 California - Davis 48 21.1, 139 California Poly 35 34.2
14% 173 Charleston Southern 38 22.6, 74 Liberty 36 34.6
11% 117 Northwestern 43 18.9, 31 Notre Dame 40 32.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.17 37 0.98 18 0.89 24 0.97 17 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 80 80.2 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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