prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 125 Arkansas State 68 40.8, 246 New Mexico State 35 20.1
94% 15 Kansas State 51 39.7, 161 Kansas 13 14.6
94% 14 Louisville 44 40.3, 139 Kentucky 40 19.8
94% 5 Ohio State 42 39.4, 55 Michigan 28 19.1
93% 94 Appalachian State 45 43.3, 239 Idaho 28 21.7
93% 74 Georgia Southern 22 36.2, 171 Northeast Louisiana 16 19.7
93% 43 Northern Iowa 44 40.5, 188 Stephen F. Austin 10 21.9
93% 6 Wisconsin 34 37.8, 57 Minnesota 24 21.5
92% 107 Toledo 52 41.8, 245 Eastern Michigan 16 22.5
92% 4 Alabama 55 34.4, 37 Auburn 44 20.4
91% 83 Fresno State 28 39.0, 180 Hawaii 21 25.6
91% 70 Houston 35 35.9, 228 Southern Methodist 9 16.6
90% 3 Florida State 24 34.3, 17 Florida 19 21.8
89% 2 Oregon 47 40.3, 82 Oregon State 19 26.1
88% 32 Fordham 44 37.9, 89 Sacred Heart 22 26.1
88% 1 Baylor 48 53.8, 104 Texas Tech 46 30.8
87% 49 Utah 38 34.8, 194 Colorado 34 22.7
87% 18 Boise State 50 34.3, 47 Utah State 19 22.1
86% 105 Nevada - Reno 49 36.2, 213 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 25.8
85% 68 Duke 41 30.8, 152 Wake Forest 21 19.1
84% 54 Boston College 28 28.4, 114 Syracuse 7 18.8
83% 93 Memphis 41 31.6, 178 Connecticut 10 17.5
83% 51 East Carolina 49 40.3, 177 Tulsa 32 28.3
81% 166 Texas State - San Marc 54 34.6, 235 Georgia State 31 25.1
81% 92 Richmond 46 36.3, 168 Morgan State 24 25.3
80% 44 Virginia Tech 24 27.7, 95 Virginia 20 17.4
78% 27 Central Florida 16 29.7, 165 South Florida 0 17.9
77% 30 Southern California 49 32.3, 40 Notre Dame 14 25.7
76% 45 West Virginia 37 35.5, 133 Iowa State 24 26.7
74% 62 Montana 52 30.9, 112 San Diego 14 19.4
74% 13 Clemson 35 32.8, 31 South Carolina 17 23.1
72% 124 San Diego State 38 28.1, 167 San Jose State 7 21.1
72% 80 Navy 42 35.2, 190 South Alabama 40 26.9
71% 118 Louisiana Tech 76 31.7, 151 Rice 31 25.2
71% 71 Tennessee 24 31.6, 150 Vanderbilt 17 23.5
69% 148 Louisiana - Lafayette 42 33.7, 222 Troy State 23 28.0
69% 56 Washington 31 37.4, 149 Washington State 13 31.5
68% 8 Michigan State 34 26.1, 46 Penn State 10 21.2
66% 145 Ohio 24 26.5, 223 Miami - Ohio 21 21.6
66% 144 Indiana 23 36.5, 169 Purdue 16 31.9
65% 35 Cincinnati 14 32.4, 88 Temple 6 27.1
63% 42 Brigham Young 42 36.3, 126 California 35 32.5
62% 29 Missouri 21 27.9, 34 Arkansas 14 23.2
60% 186 Texas - El Paso 24 31.3, 179 Middle Tennessee State 21 29.5
60% 181 Kent State 27 23.3, 207 Akron 24 21.6
60% 162 Southern 52 32.3, 187 Grambling 45 30.7
60% 159 Old Dominion 31 35.9, 200 Florida Atlantic 28 34.6
60% 79 South Dakota State 47 34.8, 130 Montana State 40 32.6
60% 77 Sam Houston State 21 34.4, 78 Southeast Louisiana 17 32.3
60% 7 Texas Christian 48 29.0, 20 Texas 10 27.7
59% 41 Mississippi 31 24.7, 24 Mississippi State 17 23.5
58% 36 Arizona 42 34.7, 25 Arizona State 35 34.0
54% 212 Alabama - Birmingham 45 29.4, 227 Southern Mississippi 24 28.8
46% 156 Buffalo 41 30.6, 182 Massachusetts 21 31.1
40% 215 New Mexico 36 32.2, 172 Wyoming 30 33.5
40% 73 Northern Illinois 31 29.7, 123 Western Michigan 21 30.9
40% 48 Nebraska 37 26.9, 58 Iowa 34 28.1
39% 231 Texas - San Antonio 34 22.8, 183 North Texas 27 26.4
39% 135 Air Force 27 30.8, 81 Colorado State 24 32.8
39% 21 Stanford 31 25.5, 26 California - Los Angel 10 28.3
39% 16 Louisiana State 23 26.4, 28 Texas A&M 17 28.7
33% 160 Indiana State 36 25.1, 131 Eastern Kentucky 16 30.8
29% 96 North Carolina State 35 30.7, 65 North Carolina 7 37.3
27% 116 Rutgers 41 23.0, 75 Maryland 38 31.1
26% 110 Liberty 26 27.3, 50 James Madison 21 37.0
25% 63 Pittsburgh 35 23.4, 38 Miami - Florida 23 31.7
19% 143 Illinois 47 24.6, 72 Northwestern 33 33.9
18% 140 Ball State 41 26.0, 108 Bowling Green 24 33.4
15% 132 Western Kentucky 67 29.8, 39 Marshall 66 45.0
12% 19 Georgia Tech 30 31.0, 11 Georgia 24 40.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.15 18 1.05 14 0.96 16 0.88 13 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 70 53 52.6 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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