prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 3 Texas Christian 55 46.0, 134 Iowa State 3 18.7
93% 16 Boise State 28 43.8, 82 Fresno State 14 26.4
93% 8 North Dakota State 27 35.3, 81 South Dakota State 24 18.7
91% 23 Villanova 29 40.3, 93 Liberty 22 26.5
87% 1 Oregon 51 42.1, 30 Arizona 13 30.9
85% 2 Alabama 42 29.7, 33 Missouri 13 19.8
83% 90 Alcorn State 38 40.1, 169 Southern 24 30.8
79% 68 Coastal Carolina 36 36.0, 85 Richmond 15 29.7
79% 61 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 32.9, 137 Indiana State 14 24.7
77% 109 Temple 10 27.6, 210 Tulane 3 19.3
77% 65 Marshall 26 39.3, 112 Louisiana Tech 23 30.1
77% 5 Baylor 38 42.7, 14 Kansas State 27 34.0
71% 36 Cincinnati 38 34.0, 53 Houston 31 28.0
70% 4 Florida State 37 35.7, 21 Georgia Tech 35 30.5
67% 22 New Hampshire 44 38.3, 28 Fordham 19 33.9
64% 6 Ohio State 59 34.2, 9 Wisconsin 0 31.2
61% 77 Northern Illinois 51 30.8, 113 Bowling Green 17 28.4
60% 67 Eastern Washington 37 36.2, 38 Montana 20 34.3
59% 69 Illinois State 41 28.5, 35 Northern Iowa 21 27.5
51% 26 Central Florida 32 32.3, 57 East Carolina 30 32.2
27% 227 Southern Methodist 27 16.2, 194 Connecticut 20 25.1
24% 94 Sam Houston State 37 24.3, 52 Jacksonville State 26 33.9
7% 46 Oklahoma State 38 22.1, 12 Oklahoma 35 38.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.82 4 1.59 9 1.03 3 1.18 5 0.86 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 23 20 17.6 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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