2014 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 88%  18 North Dakota State      35 33.0,    67 Sam Houston State        3 20.4
 88%   1 Texas Christian         42 34.0,    37 Mississippi              3 21.2
 86%  60 Utah State              21 32.7,   191 Texas - El Paso          6 20.7
 78%  19 Stanford                45 29.2,    75 Maryland                21 21.4
 71%  24 Arizona State           36 36.1,    72 Duke                    31 30.3
 70% 129 Bowling Green           33 31.5,   199 South Alabama           28 25.6
 69%  97 Louisiana Tech          35 35.4,   137 Illinois                18 30.7
 69%  17 Florida                 28 32.2,    56 East Carolina           20 26.9
 69%  15 Southern California     45 34.6,    35 Nebraska                42 29.4
 69%  12 Boise State             38 34.9,    39 Arizona                 30 30.0
 67%   2 Oregon                  59 37.7,     5 Florida State           20 33.3
 65%  14 Wisconsin               34 32.7,    34 Auburn                  31 28.9
 63% 132 Western Kentucky        49 34.7,   155 Central Michigan        48 31.6
 63% 101 Toledo                  63 35.9,   124 Arkansas State          44 33.5
 62%  20 Georgia Tech            49 32.9,    22 Mississippi State       34 30.7
 61%  27 Missouri                33 28.4,    52 Minnesota               17 26.1
 61%  16 Georgia                 37 33.1,    21 Louisville              14 30.8
 61%   3 Ohio State              42 34.2,     4 Alabama                 35 32.4
 60%  36 Arkansas                31 25.2,    51 Texas                    7 22.3
 59%  57 Utah                    45 29.8,    77 Colorado State          10 28.9
 59%  23 Texas A&M               45 33.6,    31 West Virginia           37 32.5
 57%  26 South Carolina          24 29.0,    45 Miami - Florida         21 28.1
 55%  30 Oklahoma State          30 30.9,    46 Washington              22 30.3
 51%  74 Marshall                52 35.1,    49 Northern Illinois       23 35.0

 48%  59 Tennessee               45 27.5,    42 Iowa                    28 27.8
 42%  11 Clemson                 40 28.1,     8 Oklahoma                 6 29.0
 40%  64 Houston                 35 27.6,    48 Pittsburgh              34 29.3
 39% 144 Air Force               38 27.1,   134 Western Michigan        24 29.1
 39% 109 Navy                    17 26.5,    85 San Diego State         16 29.3
 39%  79 Memphis                 55 29.0,    41 Brigham Young           48 31.1
 39%  58 Penn State              31 19.7,    43 Boston College          30 21.8
 39%  55 Virginia Tech           33 22.8,    40 Cincinnati              17 25.2
 39%   6 Michigan State          42 36.4,     7 Baylor                  41 38.3
 35% 142 Louisiana - Lafayette   16 30.2,   105 Nevada - Reno            3 34.0
 35% 115 Rutgers                 40 30.2,    71 North Carolina          21 34.3
 32%  32 California - Los Angel  40 28.5,    13 Kansas State            35 33.4
 29% 166 Rice                    30 28.5,   103 Fresno State             6 34.5
 29%  70 North Carolina State    34 24.3,    28 Central Florida         27 29.2
 26%  44 Notre Dame              31 21.3,     9 Louisiana State         28 29.3
 17%  65 Illinois State          21 29.8,    25 New Hampshire           18 38.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.28  24 0.91   5 0.55   4 0.87   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  40  24  26.4 0.91

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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