12 Jan 2016: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2015 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5  12  9.0  7.2 Alabama                  128 43   0  7.2  5.5 Towson                  
  2  6  11  9.3  6.5 Oklahoma                 129 47   0  8.4  4.2 Montana State           
  3  9  11  9.7  6.1 Clemson                  130 61   0  7.9  4.7 Purdue                  
  4 13  10  9.2  6.3 Mississippi              131 55   0  7.6  5.1 New Mexico              
  5 13  10  9.0  6.4 Stanford                 132 69   0  7.4  5.3 New Hampshire           
  6  8  10  8.6  6.7 Ohio State               133 38   0  7.3  5.4 Yale                    
  7  8  10  9.7  5.7 Baylor                   134 37   0  8.1  4.5 California Poly         
  8 27   9  9.4  5.8 North Carolina           135 37   0  7.4  5.2 Eastern Kentucky        
  9 14   9  8.5  6.6 Florida State            136 72   0  7.0  5.6 North Carolina A&T      
 10  9   8  8.2  6.8 North Dakota State       137 52   0  7.2  5.4 Georgia State           
 11 22   8  8.5  6.5 Louisiana State          138 41   0  7.7  4.9 Western Carolina        
 12 38   9  9.1  5.9 Houston                  139 24   0  8.0  4.5 Tennessee - Martin      
 13 28   8  9.2  5.8 Arkansas                 140 45   0  7.1  5.4 South Dakota            
 14 27   8  8.2  6.7 Washington               141 36   0  8.1  4.3 Eastern Washington      
 15 36   8  9.1  5.8 Notre Dame               142 50   0  7.7  4.8 Buffalo                 
 16 24   8  8.4  6.5 Michigan                 143 57   0  7.9  4.6 Bethune - Cookman       
 17 11   8  8.9  5.9 Texas Christian          144 53   0  7.4  5.0 Oregon State            
 18 12   8  8.8  6.0 Mississippi State        145 29   0  7.2  5.2 Eastern Illinois        
 19 22   8  8.9  5.9 Tennessee                146 35   0  7.3  5.1 North Dakota            
 20 35   8  9.7  5.0 Oregon                   147 46   0  7.3  5.1 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 21 15   7  8.8  5.8 Boise State              148 33   0  7.7  4.6 Brown                   
 22 17   7  8.1  6.5 Michigan State           149 63   0  7.3  5.1 Bryant                  
 23 65   7  9.4  5.3 Western Kentucky         150 59   0  8.3  4.0 Prairie View            
 24 17   7  8.5  6.0 Southern California      151 53   0  7.7  4.5 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 25 21   7  8.4  6.1 West Virginia            152 40   0  7.2  5.1 Colgate                 
 26 48   7  9.3  5.2 California               153 46   0  7.2  5.0 Liberty                 
 27 28   7  9.1  5.4 Oklahoma State           154 16  -1  7.2  5.1 Southeast Missouri State
 28 45   6  8.4  6.1 Auburn                   155 64  -1  7.9  4.2 Grambling               
 29 48   6  8.5  6.0 Navy                     156 32  -1  7.0  5.2 Wofford                 
 30 16   6  7.8  6.5 Georgia                  157 58  -1  7.8  4.3 Southern Methodist      
 31 23   6  8.1  6.2 Utah                     158 45  -1  7.0  5.2 Florida Atlantic        
 32 68   6  8.7  5.7 Memphis                  159 70  -1  7.1  5.0 Mercer                  
 33 44   6  9.0  5.3 Arizona State            160 48  -1  7.0  5.1 Army                    
 34 62   6  8.5  5.9 Toledo                   161 36  -1  7.8  4.2 Lehigh                  
 35 27   6  8.6  5.8 Brigham Young            162 67  -1  6.5  5.6 South Carolina State    
 36 23   6  8.0  6.3 Northern Iowa            163 26  -1  6.7  5.4 Weber State             
 37 36   6  8.5  5.8 Louisville               164 **  -1  6.9  5.2 San Diego               
 38 70   6  9.2  5.2 Bowling Green            165 86  -1  7.1  4.9 Central Arkansas        
 39 47   6  7.9  6.3 San Diego State          166 54  -1  7.1  4.9 Massachusetts           
 40 22   6  8.7  5.6 Jacksonville State       167 32  -1  6.9  5.2 Monmouth                
 41 17   6  8.3  6.0 California - Los Angeles 168 56  -1  6.4  5.6 Maine                   
 42 30   6  8.0  6.2 Texas A&M                169 56  -2  7.2  4.8 Tulane                  
 43 16   6  7.7  6.6 Wisconsin                170 53  -2  6.9  5.0 Sacred Heart            
 44 65   6  8.4  5.8 South Florida            171 32  -2  7.2  4.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 45 25   6  8.3  5.9 Illinois State           172 36  -2  7.5  4.3 Fresno State            
 46 38   6  8.7  5.5 North Carolina State     173 34  -2  7.4  4.5 South Alabama           
 47 25   5  8.1  6.1 Iowa                     174 39  -2  7.2  4.7 Ball State              
 48 41   5  8.4  5.8 Virginia Tech            175 47  -2  7.9  3.8 Idaho                   
 49 42   6  9.8  4.4 Texas Tech               176 60  -2  6.1  5.8 Delaware                
 50 26   5  8.7  5.4 Nebraska                 177 42  -2  6.8  5.1 North Carolina Central  
 51 20   5  8.3  5.8 Georgia Southern         178 63  -2  7.5  4.3 Lamar                   
 52 37   5  8.3  5.8 Pittsburgh               179 26  -2  7.3  4.5 Rice                    
 53 40   5  7.9  6.1 Harvard                  180 31  -2  7.0  4.8 Florida International   
 54 51   5  8.3  5.8 Washington State         181 37  -2  7.0  4.9 Wyoming                 
 55 37   5  8.1  5.9 Georgia Tech             182 **  -2  6.9  4.9 Jacksonville            
 56 53   5  7.9  6.2 Temple                   183 27  -2  6.7  5.1 Hampton                 
 57 81   5  8.7  5.2 Southern Mississippi     184 96  -2  6.4  5.4 Dayton                  
 58 28   4  8.3  5.6 Richmond                 185 67  -2  7.5  4.2 Southern                
 59 46   5  9.1  4.8 Arizona                  186 57  -2  5.9  5.9 Stony Brook             
 60 70   4  8.5  5.4 Western Michigan         187 32  -2  6.6  5.1 Furman                  
 61 35   4  7.7  6.2 South Dakota State       188 67  -3  7.4  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
 62 70   4  8.0  5.8 South Carolina           189 20  -3  7.6  3.9 Murray State            
 63 30   4  8.1  5.7 Miami - Florida          190 15  -3  6.0  5.7 Columbia                
 64 41   4  7.8  6.0 Texas                    191 92  -3  6.5  5.1 Marist                  
 65 24   4  7.3  6.4 Florida                  192 28  -3  6.9  4.7 Texas - San Antonio     
 66 51   4  8.4  5.4 Duke                     193 45  -3  6.8  4.8 Miami - Ohio            
 67 40   4  9.0  4.6 James Madison            194 33  -3  6.2  5.4 Elon                    
 68 45   4  8.2  5.5 Kansas State             195 47  -3  6.7  4.8 Tennessee State         
 69 61   4  9.1  4.6 Indiana                  196 44  -3  7.4  4.1 Northwestern State      
 70 56   4  8.3  5.4 Air Force                197 20  -3  7.1  4.4 Texas State - San Marcos
 71 52   3  7.9  5.7 Minnesota                198 44  -4  7.6  3.8 Eastern Michigan        
 72 26   3  7.9  5.6 Appalachian State        199 51  -3  6.4  5.1 Albany                  
 73 43   3  7.2  6.4 Dartmouth                200 29  -4  7.3  4.1 Old Dominion            
 74 35   3  7.7  5.9 Penn State               201 32  -3  6.0  5.5 Kent State              
 75 31   3  7.8  5.7 Marshall                 202 44  -4  6.5  5.0 Georgetown              
 76 38   3  7.7  5.8 Tennessee - Chattanooga  203 30  -4  7.1  4.2 Northern Colorado       
 77 48   3  8.1  5.3 Utah State               204 31  -4  7.6  3.7 New Mexico State        
 78 60   3  6.7  6.8 Missouri                 205 45  -4  5.8  5.7 Bucknell                
 79 55   3  8.6  4.9 Arkansas State           206 35  -4  6.5  4.9 Central Florida         
 80 41   3  8.0  5.4 William & Mary           207 25  -4  6.6  4.8 Texas - El Paso         
 81 43   3  8.2  5.2 Louisiana Tech           208 **  -4  7.2  4.1 Kennesaw State          
 82 46   2  6.6  6.8 Boston College           209 23  -4  6.7  4.7 Hawaii                  
 83 53   3  8.1  5.3 Coastal Carolina         210 30  -4  6.8  4.5 California - Davis      
 84 39   3  8.0  5.4 East Carolina            211 15  -4  7.0  4.2 Virginia Military       
 85 45   3  8.3  5.1 Cincinnati               212 23  -4  6.5  4.7 Kansas                  
 86 65   3  7.9  5.5 Virginia                 213 20  -4  6.4  4.8 Rhode Island            
 87 44   2  7.1  6.3 Northwestern             214 23  -4  6.6  4.6 Northeast Louisiana     
 88 44   2  7.6  5.7 Youngstown State         215 32  -4  6.4  4.9 Central Connecticut     
 89 66   2  8.1  5.2 Syracuse                 216 88  -4  6.1  5.2 Southeast Louisiana     
 90 49   2  7.8  5.5 Southern Utah            217 27  -4  6.5  4.8 North Texas             
 91 57   2  7.8  5.5 Iowa State               218 15  -4  6.9  4.2 Tennessee Tech          
 92 46   2  7.7  5.5 Montana                  219 56  -4  6.3  5.0 Morgan State            
 93 50   2  8.0  5.2 Kentucky                 220 39  -4  5.7  5.6 Presbyterian            
 94 31   2  7.9  5.4 Western Illinois         221 85  -5  7.0  4.1 Morehead State          
 95 63   2  8.5  4.7 Sam Houston State        222 **  -5  6.2  5.0 Drake                   
 96 36   2  8.5  4.7 Southern Illinois        223 94  -5  6.9  4.1 Abilene Christian       
 97 31   2  7.9  5.3 Portland State           224 88  -5  6.6  4.5 Butler                  
 98 45   2  7.8  5.4 The Citadel              225 43  -5  6.0  5.1 Norfolk State           
 99 54   2  7.6  5.6 Illinois                 226 21  -5  6.2  4.9 Cornell                 
100 47   2  7.7  5.5 Northern Illinois        227 77  -5  6.3  4.7 Alabama State           
101 19   2  8.0  5.1 Pennsylvania             228 34  -5  6.4  4.6 Sacramento State        
102 73   2  7.7  5.4 San Jose State           229 99  -5  6.2  4.8 Campbell                
103 63   1  7.4  5.7 Central Michigan         230 14  -6  6.8  4.0 Idaho State             
104 59   1  7.5  5.6 Colorado                 231 43  -6  6.6  4.1 North Carolina - Charlot
105 60   1  7.8  5.2 Middle Tennessee State   232 72  -6  6.1  4.6 Incarnate Word          
106 59   1  6.8  6.2 Villanova                233 40  -7  6.1  4.4 Lafayette               
107 67   1  8.8  4.2 Tulsa                    234 16  -7  6.1  4.3 Wagner                  
108 61   1  7.7  5.3 Ohio                     235 15  -7  6.4  4.0 Howard                  
109 41   1  8.4  4.5 Northern Arizona         236 39  -7  5.3  5.3 Gardner - Webb          
110 63   1  6.9  6.1 Wake Forest              237 28  -7  6.3  4.2 Nicholls State          
111 29   1  8.1  4.8 Samford                  238 34  -7  5.2  5.3 Robert Morris           
112 65   1  7.8  5.1 Alcorn State             239 20  -7  5.9  4.5 Florida A&M             
113 30   1  7.8  5.1 Princeton                240 49  -8  6.1  4.2 Missouri State          
114 51   1  7.8  5.1 Maryland                 241 44  -8  6.0  4.3 Jackson State           
115 47   1  7.7  5.2 Colorado State           242 34  -8  6.0  4.2 Alabama A&M             
116 43   1  6.6  6.3 Vanderbilt               243 11  -9  5.8  4.2 Delaware State          
117 29   1  7.8  5.0 Indiana State            244 10  -9  5.7  4.3 Austin Peay             
118 56   1  8.0  4.9 Rutgers                  245 32  -9  5.9  3.9 Texas Southern          
119 57   1  7.3  5.6 Charleston Southern      246 14 -10  6.0  3.6 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
120 50   1  8.4  4.4 Fordham                  247 62 -10  5.9  3.7 Stetson                 
121 45   1  7.5  5.3 Nevada - Reno            248  9 -11  6.1  3.3 Savannah State          
122 62   0  7.1  5.8 Akron                    249 25 -12  6.0  3.2 Valparaiso              
123 55   0  6.6  6.2 Connecticut              250  7 -11  5.4  3.8 Mississippi Valley State
124 84   0  6.7  6.1 McNeese State            251 24 -11  5.3  4.0 East Tennessee State    
125 48   0  7.5  5.2 Holy Cross               252 22 -12  5.4  3.7 Davidson                
126 62   0  7.7  5.1 Troy State               253 14 -14  5.2  3.2 Houston Baptist         
127 53   0  7.4  5.3 Duquesne                

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net