prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 164 Old Dominion 38 41.9, 247 Eastern Michigan 34 25.6
90% 158 Mercer 28 36.1, 250 Austin Peay 7 13.0
90% 134 The Citadel 69 48.0, 248 Davidson 0 15.1
90% 132 Illinois 52 32.6, 214 Kent State 3 18.8
90% 124 South Carolina State 35 40.4, 243 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 15.0
90% 118 Eastern Kentucky 52 41.1, 241 Valparaiso 10 14.6
90% 102 Northern Illinois 38 40.4, 219 Nevada - Las Vegas 30 21.3
90% 84 Oregon State 26 35.3, 210 Weber State 7 15.6
90% 80 Houston 52 39.1, 215 Tennessee Tech 24 17.5
90% 79 Colorado State 65 55.5, 252 Savannah State 13 11.2
90% 75 North Carolina State 49 41.9, 228 Troy State 21 16.8
90% 71 Cincinnati 52 45.6, 232 Alabama A&M 10 15.4
90% 69 Liberty 32 40.2, 240 Delaware State 13 7.9
90% 68 Utah State 12 30.8, 187 Southern Utah 9 12.1
90% 58 Duke 37 32.3, 196 Tulane 7 16.1
90% 55 James Madison 56 56.5, 239 Morehead State 7 18.9
90% 53 Tennessee 59 37.3, 160 Bowling Green 30 22.3
90% 48 Marshall 41 43.0, 167 Purdue 31 21.6
90% 40 Fordham 37 44.4, 203 Army 35 23.3
90% 39 Coastal Carolina 38 36.6, 176 Furman 35 19.2
90% 37 Arizona 42 39.1, 211 Texas - San Antonio 32 10.4
90% 30 California - Los Angel 34 34.6, 88 Virginia 16 18.9
90% 29 Florida 61 51.9, 242 New Mexico State 13 6.8
90% 26 Arkansas 48 40.3, 189 Texas - El Paso 13 11.1
90% 23 Mississippi State 34 44.9, 230 Southern Mississippi 16 12.2
90% 18 Oklahoma 41 43.9, 202 Akron 3 10.3
90% 17 Missouri 34 45.6, 198 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 13.1
90% 15 Kansas State 34 42.0, 166 South Dakota 0 12.5
90% 14 Southern California 55 42.6, 129 Arkansas State 6 18.8
90% 11 Mississippi 76 36.5, 151 Tennessee - Martin 3 11.4
90% 9 Clemson 49 34.7, 125 Wofford 10 10.2
90% 8 Florida State 59 47.0, 175 Texas State - San Marc 16 14.5
90% 7 Georgia 51 46.8, 182 Northeast Louisiana 14 9.3
90% 6 Michigan State 37 40.7, 149 Western Michigan 24 17.9
90% 5 Baylor 56 59.5, 233 Southern Methodist 21 13.8
90% 3 Oregon 61 53.4, 65 Eastern Washington 42 31.3
90% 2 Texas Christian 23 34.7, 61 Minnesota 17 18.4
89% 150 Ball State 48 42.8, 231 Virginia Military 36 24.2
89% 117 Appalachian State 49 37.9, 204 Howard 0 22.6
88% 107 Syracuse 47 28.8, 222 Rhode Island 0 11.4
88% 44 Oklahoma State 24 36.0, 170 Central Michigan 13 20.9
88% 41 South Dakota State 41 31.7, 159 Kansas 38 18.2
88% 19 Georgia Tech 69 46.0, 128 Alcorn State 6 21.8
88% 4 Ohio State 42 33.4, 42 Virginia Tech 24 19.9
87% 98 Rutgers 63 25.3, 212 Norfolk State 13 9.7
86% 114 Nevada - Reno 31 34.4, 206 California - Davis 17 19.4
86% 35 Utah 24 27.4, 73 Michigan 17 17.3
85% 192 New Mexico 66 40.9, 249 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 18.2
85% 142 Dayton 27 29.2, 237 Robert Morris 24 16.3
85% 90 Indiana State 52 34.9, 197 Butler 17 16.8
85% 43 Miami - Florida 45 34.0, 120 Bethune - Cookman 0 18.3
84% 188 Ohio 45 30.8, 235 Idaho 28 21.5
84% 184 Prairie View 38 35.4, 244 Texas Southern 11 26.2
84% 148 Saint Francis - Pennsy 48 27.6, 195 Georgetown 20 18.4
83% 96 Kentucky 40 34.6, 141 Louisiana - Lafayette 33 25.7
83% 83 Louisiana Tech 62 43.4, 201 Southern 15 22.8
82% 127 Bucknell 17 23.4, 183 Marist 0 13.0
82% 112 California 73 45.8, 216 Grambling 14 28.2
80% 54 Southeast Louisiana 34 32.3, 143 Northwestern State 20 23.2
80% 1 Alabama 35 27.6, 13 Wisconsin 17 20.1
78% 161 North Carolina - Charl 23 39.7, 234 Georgia State 20 28.2
78% 32 South Carolina 17 39.0, 82 North Carolina 13 29.8
77% 95 Navy 48 31.0, 147 Colgate 10 21.6
76% 180 South Alabama 33 24.7, 217 Gardner - Webb 23 16.8
76% 67 East Carolina 28 37.6, 130 Towson 20 24.6
74% 38 Boise State 16 31.4, 47 Washington 13 25.0
72% 185 South Florida 51 21.8, 218 Florida A&M 3 14.0
71% 136 Air Force 63 33.6, 174 Morgan State 7 25.4
71% 60 Boston College 24 25.9, 93 Maine 3 16.2
70% 138 Tennessee State 24 23.6, 156 Alabama State 14 18.1
70% 51 West Virginia 44 36.2, 70 Georgia Southern 0 28.8
69% 163 Wake Forest 41 22.2, 199 Elon 3 14.3
69% 135 Rice 56 24.8, 165 Wagner 16 17.3
68% 77 Samford 45 34.2, 110 Central Arkansas 16 26.8
64% 49 Notre Dame 38 25.9, 45 Texas 3 21.4
63% 177 Middle Tennessee State 70 31.7, 221 Jackson State 14 21.9
60% 146 Lehigh 20 30.8, 193 Central Connecticut 14 27.1
60% 62 William & Mary 34 24.0, 113 Lafayette 7 20.7
60% 16 Auburn 31 29.9, 28 Louisville 24 26.0
59% 205 Tulsa 47 28.8, 200 Florida Atlantic 44 27.8
59% 145 Fresno State 34 32.4, 162 Abilene Christian 13 27.2
58% 122 San Diego State 37 26.5, 137 San Diego 3 20.5
57% 227 Miami - Ohio 26 19.7, 224 Presbyterian 7 19.0
57% 86 Memphis 63 25.9, 92 Missouri State 7 21.9
55% 119 Western Kentucky 14 33.6, 152 Vanderbilt 12 33.1
44% 105 Jacksonville 20 25.5, 106 Delaware 14 29.0
43% 154 Northern Arizona 34 28.8, 153 Stephen F. Austin 28 31.5
43% 103 Western Illinois 33 26.7, 72 Eastern Illinois 5 28.7
43% 99 Texas Tech 59 35.4, 56 Sam Houston State 45 38.3
43% 46 Jacksonville State 23 23.3, 50 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 26.0
42% 190 Hawaii 28 28.0, 155 Colorado 20 29.4
42% 123 Indiana 48 32.5, 76 Southern Illinois 47 34.5
42% 104 Temple 27 16.1, 59 Penn State 10 18.9
42% 78 Pittsburgh 45 27.8, 52 Youngstown State 37 29.9
42% 34 Texas A&M 38 36.4, 27 Arizona State 17 38.3
41% 91 Maryland 50 28.4, 63 Richmond 21 30.1
41% 66 Iowa 31 23.9, 33 Illinois State 14 27.6
40% 213 North Dakota 24 21.4, 191 Wyoming 13 26.4
40% 173 Buffalo 51 26.1, 109 Albany 14 31.2
38% 144 Holy Cross 27 24.0, 133 Monmouth 19 28.1
37% 225 Kennesaw State 56 13.2, 172 East Tennessee State 16 24.8
24% 74 California Poly 20 26.1, 31 Montana 19 38.9
18% 181 Portland State 24 26.4, 116 Washington State 17 38.1
18% 64 Brigham Young 33 28.5, 36 Nebraska 28 38.0
12% 131 Iowa State 31 19.2, 22 Northern Iowa 7 33.7
12% 89 Northwestern 16 14.6, 10 Stanford 6 26.5
10% 223 Florida International 15 8.9, 57 Central Florida 14 37.0
10% 209 Connecticut 20 13.5, 24 Villanova 15 40.0
10% 178 San Jose State 43 18.9, 21 New Hampshire 13 41.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
21 0.66 9 1.04 12 1.24 32 1.02 35 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 85 85.9 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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