2015 Week 3 (10-12 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 85%  11 Southern California     59 57.9,   212 Idaho                    9 11.5
 84%   2 Ohio State              38 55.6,   147 Hawaii                   0 13.5
 83%   5 Baylor                  66 65.8,   197 Lamar                   31 24.1
 82%  67 North Dakota State      41 45.2,   210 Weber State             14 14.8
 82%   3 Texas Christian         70 58.1,   167 Stephen F. Austin        7 18.1
 81%  13 Wisconsin               58 47.8,   192 Miami - Ohio             0 10.1
 80%  10 Georgia Tech            65 48.1,   173 Tulane                  10 11.3
 78%   8 Florida State           34 46.3,   152 South Florida           14 11.9
 77%   4 Alabama                 37 48.0,   115 Middle Tennessee State  10 14.6
 76%  48 Boston College          76 45.0,   223 Howard                   0 14.4
 75%  79 Youngstown State        21 44.5,   238 Robert Morris           14 13.2
 75%   6 Georgia                 31 44.9,   127 Vanderbilt              14 17.0
 73%  47 Illinois State          67 45.3,   198 Morgan State            14 19.7
 73%   9 Mississippi             73 43.8,   117 Fresno State            21 16.0
 72% 163 Northeast Louisiana     47 47.5,   249 Nicholls State           0 17.5
 72%  24 Nebraska                48 45.1,   161 South Alabama            9 18.8
 71% 100 Samford                 58 38.2,   233 Florida A&M             21 13.0
 71%  56 South Dakota State      55 41.3,   196 Southern Utah           10 17.8
 71%  20 California - Los Angel  37 46.8,   174 Nevada - Las Vegas       3 22.7
 70%  16 Clemson                 41 41.4,   108 Appalachian State       10 17.2
 69% 221 Northern Colorado       34 48.2,   253 Houston Baptist         10 21.6
 69% 140 McNeese State           43 44.9,   246 Incarnate Word           6 14.5
 69% 119 Sacred Heart            56 43.6,   244 Valparaiso               3 18.9
 69%  40 Virginia Tech           42 34.8,   199 Furman                   3 10.6
 69%  37 Washington              49 46.6,   168 Sacramento State         0 25.1
 69%  25 Texas A&M               56 46.1,   118 Ball State              23 25.6
 69%  14 Kansas State            30 38.1,   169 Texas - San Antonio      3 13.5
 68% 200 Southern Mississippi    52 36.5,   248 Austin Peay              6 17.2
 68%  86 Northern Illinois       57 51.0,   207 Murray State            26 31.3
 68%  77 Texas Tech              69 45.1,   145 Texas - El Paso         20 27.4
 68%  39 Duke                    55 42.7,   189 North Carolina Central   0 22.0
 68%  38 Oklahoma State          32 44.2,   135 Central Arkansas         8 25.4
 67% 146 Albany                  35 34.1,   232 Rhode Island             7 16.3
 67%  85 Indiana                 36 40.6,   177 Florida International   22 23.3
 67%  81 James Madison           55 41.9,   166 Lehigh                  17 24.9
 67%  36 Miami - Florida         44 38.8,   141 Florida Atlantic        20 21.6
 67%  23 Arizona State           35 43.4,   105 California Poly         21 27.3
 67%  22 Missouri                27 38.1,   111 Arkansas State          20 22.2
 66% 219 Southern                50 38.5,   251 Mississippi Valley Sta  13 22.7
 66% 194 Mercer                  57 45.2,   242 Stetson                 14 29.3
 66% 134 Stony Brook             38 33.2,   209 Central Connecticut      9 16.3
 66%  58 Pittsburgh              24 35.0,   175 Akron                    7 20.5
 66%  50 New Hampshire           26 36.2,   179 Colgate                  8 21.7
 66%  12 Auburn                  27 39.9,    72 Jacksonville State      20 26.1
 65% 226 Virginia Military       43 46.8,   243 Morehead State          40 38.2
 65% 195 Kent State              45 26.6,   240 Delaware State          13 15.7
 65% 183 North Carolina - Charl  34 34.8,   222 Presbyterian            10 25.0
 65% 181 Tennessee State         35 32.6,   236 Jackson State           25 18.1
 65% 178 Bethune - Cookman       56 33.2,   228 Grambling               53 26.4
 65% 157 Wofford                 34 32.5,   215 Tennessee Tech          14 21.0
 65% 131 Old Dominion            24 34.5,   231 Norfolk State           10 22.1
 65% 130 The Citadel             28 39.9,   182 Western Carolina        10 28.1
 65% 110 Louisiana - Lafayette   44 36.1,   154 Northwestern State      17 28.8
 65% 103 Colorado                48 41.2,   176 Massachusetts           14 31.2
 65% 101 Richmond                31 40.4,   216 Hampton                 28 27.1
 65%  97 Georgia Southern        43 35.9,   107 Western Michigan        17 29.3
 65%  93 Syracuse                30 26.1,   124 Wake Forest             17 17.2
 65%  92 Air Force               37 36.4,   138 San Jose State          16 25.3
 65%  76 Northwestern            41 31.0,   106 Eastern Illinois         0 26.5
 65%  75 North Carolina          53 37.0,   136 North Carolina A&T      14 29.6
 65%  66 Michigan                35 28.4,    82 Oregon State             7 20.9
 65%  64 North Carolina State    35 35.3,   128 Eastern Kentucky         0 27.2
 65%  62 Penn State              27 33.6,   125 Buffalo                 14 20.9
 65%  61 Coastal Carolina        41 34.6,   164 South Carolina State    14 24.7
 65%  57 California              35 38.4,    99 San Diego State          7 30.4
 65%  51 Iowa                    31 31.0,   102 Iowa State              17 24.5
 65%  46 Northern Iowa           38 40.0,    65 Eastern Washington      35 34.7
 65%  44 Texas                   42 30.3,    90 Rice                    28 19.5
 65%  41 Memphis                 55 33.2,   120 Kansas                  23 23.8
 65%  35 Notre Dame              34 32.7,    73 Virginia                27 26.7
 65%  31 West Virginia           41 37.7,    98 Liberty                 17 25.2
 65%  30 Utah                    24 28.5,    74 Utah State              14 17.0
 65%  29 Arizona                 44 37.1,    94 Nevada - Reno           20 27.5
 65%  28 Florida                 31 36.9,    52 East Carolina           24 24.0
 65%  21 Stanford                31 26.9,    60 Central Florida          7 14.2
 64% 151 Texas State - San Marc  63 38.4,   205 Prairie View            24 34.6
 63%  84 Illinois                44 33.3,   116 Western Illinois         0 29.5
 62% 214 Georgetown              34 20.8,   227 Marist                   7 16.7
 62% 158 Delaware                19 28.1,   139 Lafayette                9 24.5
 58% 185 Towson                  35 31.6,   149 Saint Francis - Pennsy  20 29.3
 57%  45 Brigham Young           35 35.9,    32 Boise State             24 34.1
 54% 184 Connecticut             22 27.3,   159 Army                    17 26.1
 53%  19 Oklahoma                31 33.6,    34 Tennessee               24 32.8
 52% 132 Central Michigan        31 29.5,   153 Monmouth                10 28.8

 48% 220 Georgia State           34 34.8,   224 New Mexico State        32 35.3
 47% 186 South Dakota            27 25.5,   211 California - Davis      17 26.3
 47%  17 Louisiana State         21 28.0,    18 Mississippi State       19 28.9
 46% 142 Duquesne                26 23.6,   144 Bucknell                 7 25.0
 45%   7 Michigan State          31 35.6,     1 Oregon                  28 37.0
 43% 172 Alcorn State            31 29.4,   203 Alabama State           14 31.5
 40% 225 Elon                    21 19.9,   218 Gardner - Webb          13 23.3
 39%  42 Minnesota               23 28.2,    54 Colorado State          20 31.4
 38%  55 Villanova               14 34.3,    53 Fordham                  7 37.6
 37% 123 Purdue                  38 27.7,    95 Indiana State           14 31.7
 35% 217 Southern Methodist      31 27.1,   137 North Texas             13 33.8
 35% 213 North Dakota            21 20.6,   201 Drake                   18 26.9
 35% 208 Troy State              44 24.8,   143 Charleston Southern     16 35.3
 35% 188 Portland State          34 34.3,   126 Idaho State             14 41.7
 35% 170 Tulsa                   40 35.5,   133 New Mexico              21 42.8
 35%  96 Temple                  34 22.7,    49 Cincinnati              26 33.6
 35%  89 Washington State        37 29.4,    68 Rutgers                 34 38.4
 35%  80 Western Kentucky        41 36.8,    43 Louisiana Tech          38 41.2
 35%  70 Kentucky                26 27.2,    33 South Carolina          22 39.0
 35%  69 Houston                 34 23.6,    26 Louisville              31 35.7
 34% 234 Eastern Michigan        48 23.0,   162 Wyoming                 29 38.8
 34% 204 Southeast Missouri Sta  27 25.0,    87 Southern Illinois       24 40.3
 34% 156 Ohio                    21 25.1,    27 Marshall                10 40.8
 34% 129 Bowling Green           48 27.6,    63 Maryland                27 42.2
 34%  83 Toledo                  16 27.2,    15 Arkansas                12 43.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               11 0.84  78 1.16  13 1.36   7 1.21   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109  84  72.3 1.16

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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