2015 Week 4 (17-19 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93% 163 Alcorn State            55 46.2,   252 Mississippi Valley Sta  14 12.3
 93%  12 Wisconsin               28 51.7,   201 Troy State               3 11.7
 93%   3 Oregon                  61 63.6,   218 Georgia State           28  9.6
 93%   2 Texas Christian         56 52.4,   205 Southern Methodist      37  6.8
 92% 128 Vanderbilt              47 37.4,   248 Austin Peay              7  8.1
 92% 103 Richmond                42 49.3,   228 Virginia Military       10 21.7
 92%  19 Oklahoma                52 51.1,   158 Tulsa                   38 18.9
 92%   4 Ohio State              20 51.9,    96 Northern Illinois       13 21.7
 91%  88 Washington State        31 44.6,   196 Wyoming                 14 25.9
 91%  53 Michigan                28 40.7,   186 Nevada - Las Vegas       7 13.5
 91%  43 Minnesota               10 36.6,   204 Kent State               7  8.8
 91%  18 Texas A&M               44 46.6,   101 Nevada - Reno           27 24.9
 90%  25 Missouri                 9 36.3,   178 Connecticut              6  8.7
 89%  65 Cincinnati              37 42.1,   208 Miami - Ohio            33 22.0
 89%  57 Villanova               28 33.7,   166 Delaware                21 14.2
 89%  22 Mississippi State       62 42.7,   162 Northwestern State      13 17.2
 88%  42 Oklahoma State          69 36.3,   171 Texas - San Antonio     14 10.8
 88%  33 Arizona State           34 47.5,   159 New Mexico              10 22.3
 88%   7 Georgia                 52 39.2,    40 South Carolina          20 22.0
 87% 193 Abilene Christian       49 58.6,   253 Houston Baptist         21 18.3
 87% 164 South Carolina State    36 31.6,   231 Florida A&M              0 11.6
 87%  41 Marshall                45 40.7,   233 Norfolk State            7 11.1
 86%  68 Jacksonville State      48 33.7,   179 Tennessee State         13 16.2
 86%  55 North Dakota State      34 40.8,   200 North Dakota             9 17.6
 85% 213 Morgan State            61 51.6,   253 Houston Baptist          0 15.9
 84%  92 Indiana State           29 39.6,   185 Southeast Missouri Sta  28 22.4
 84%  64 Coastal Carolina        34 37.6,   119 Western Illinois        27 23.5
 84%   9 Michigan State          35 42.9,    80 Air Force               21 20.9
 83%  26 Utah                    45 37.9,   125 Fresno State            24 22.8
 82% 184 Akron                   52 41.7,   251 Savannah State           9 16.7
 82%  56 Harvard                 41 42.6,   232 Rhode Island            10 10.7
 82%  36 Illinois State          34 39.5,   131 Eastern Illinois        31 24.4
 81%  73 Fordham                 44 48.7,   240 Columbia                24 15.5
 81%  38 Boise State             52 48.0,   127 Idaho State              0 28.5
 81%  35 Tennessee               55 45.9,   188 Western Carolina        10 18.9
 80%  71 James Madison           42 39.5,   135 Albany                  28 23.0
 79%  61 North Carolina State    38 44.3,   146 Old Dominion            14 30.7
 79%  28 Arizona                 77 41.8,   169 Northern Arizona        13 20.0
 78%  29 Memphis                 44 44.7,   120 Bowling Green           41 30.1
 78%  17 California - Los Angel  24 36.7,    45 Brigham Young           23 26.0
 78%  14 Kansas State            39 37.9,    49 Louisiana Tech          33 22.4
 77%  97 Youngstown State        48 38.1,   152 Saint Francis - Pennsy   3 25.4
 76% 122 Ball State              28 40.5,   229 Eastern Michigan        17 24.2
 76%  93 Syracuse                30 28.1,   130 Central Michigan        27 16.1
 74%  39 Washington              31 23.1,    77 Utah State              17 12.7
 73% 206 Southern                50 40.7,   238 Jackson State           31 28.0
 71% 174 Texas - El Paso         50 38.2,   226 New Mexico State        47 29.4
 70%  95 Oregon State            35 30.7,   132 San Jose State          21 21.6
 68% 203 Prairie View            53 42.6,   237 Alabama A&M             49 32.2
 68% 150 Hawaii                  47 28.6,   214 California - Davis      27 20.1
 68%  90 Maryland                35 31.3,   142 South Florida           17 21.4
 68%  87 Indiana                 38 42.9,    84 Western Kentucky        35 37.7
 67%  50 Virginia Tech           51 29.3,   118 Purdue                  24 20.2
 66% 121 Middle Tennessee State  73 38.7,   180 North Carolina - Charl  14 31.4
 66% 116 Western Michigan        52 45.4,   207 Murray State            20 34.4
 66%  86 Temple                  25 33.3,   181 Massachusetts           23 21.6
 66%  81 Toledo                  30 38.9,   105 Iowa State              23 29.7
 66%  74 Penn State              28 28.5,    91 Rutgers                  3 20.7
 66%  59 Eastern Washington      55 53.1,   110 Montana State           50 42.2
 66%  46 Iowa                    27 30.3,    63 Pittsburgh              24 23.4
 66%  34 Florida                 14 31.8,    72 Kentucky                 9 23.7
 65% 246 Incarnate Word          20 33.2,   249 Nicholls State          10 24.6
 65% 222 Presbyterian            23 26.4,   239 Campbell                13 19.9
 65% 215 Hampton                 37 34.9,   234 Howard                  19 27.3
 65% 209 Southern Utah           30 27.1,   223 Northern Colorado        3 21.9
 65% 153 Bucknell                19 29.9,   227 Cornell                 14 21.4
 65% 139 Charleston Southern     47 28.2,   202 East Tennessee State     7 18.9
 65% 134 North Carolina A&T      14 27.4,   220 Elon                     7 17.5
 65% 133 McNeese State           28 35.9,   177 Stephen F. Austin       14 30.2
 65% 124 Buffalo                 33 32.3,   148 Florida Atlantic        15 29.9
 65% 123 Wake Forest             17 27.0,   160 Army                    14 23.6
 65% 109 Dartmouth               31 32.7,   211 Georgetown              10 20.8
 65% 104 Yale                    29 37.8,   191 Colgate                 28 28.2
 65%  89 Rice                    38 35.4,   141 North Texas             24 28.6
 65%  76 Navy                    45 38.7,    62 East Carolina           21 35.4
 65%  69 North Carolina          48 36.8,    66 Illinois                14 33.7
 65%  48 Northern Iowa           34 29.5,   102 California Poly         20 25.2
 65%  27 Miami - Florida         36 38.3,    24 Nebraska                33 32.7
 65%  16 Louisiana State         45 31.2,    13 Auburn                  21 26.7
 65%  15 Clemson                 20 27.3,    32 Louisville              17 23.7
 63% 143 Princeton               40 32.4,   161 Lafayette                7 29.6
 62%  11 Florida State           14 32.8,    31 Boston College           0 31.3
 56% 183 Lehigh                  42 32.1,   190 Pennsylvania            21 30.7
 56%  94 Georgia Southern        48 31.7,   107 The Citadel             13 30.8
 54%   1 Mississippi             43 29.4,     5 Alabama                 37 28.6
 53% 192 Dayton                  24 28.4,   138 Duquesne                13 27.8
 51% 243 Texas Southern          24 31.1,   245 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   20 30.9
 50% 168 Florida International   39 26.3,   189 North Carolina Central  14 26.2

 49% 182 Towson                  29 25.5,   157 Holy Cross              26 25.6
 47% 114 Arkansas State          70 30.2,   115 Missouri State           7 30.6
 47%  75 Virginia                35 25.2,   100 William & Mary          29 25.7
 45% 117 Bryant                  20 28.9,   144 Brown                   16 30.7
 38% 172 South Dakota            52 20.9,   198 Drake                    0 23.8
 38%  70 Tennessee - Chattanoog  31 29.3,    85 Samford                 21 31.3
 36% 212 Weber State             32 31.9,   167 Sacramento State        14 34.8
 36% 129 Stony Brook             31 22.0,    58 New Hampshire            6 26.2
 35% 170 Monmouth                31 24.3,   165 Wagner                  16 30.1
 35% 113 Liberty                 31 26.6,    79 Montana                 21 30.0
 35%  98 Colorado                27 31.7,    67 Colorado State          24 35.3
 35%  47 California              45 30.5,    54 Texas                   44 33.3
 34% 219 Tennessee Tech          29 27.5,   175 Mercer                  22 34.4
 34% 145 Ohio                    35 21.8,    83 Southeast Louisiana     14 32.4
 34%  30 Notre Dame              30 34.2,    10 Georgia Tech            22 40.0
 33%  52 Texas Tech              35 30.5,    23 Arkansas                24 39.2
 32% 230 Marist                  34 15.5,   106 Sacred Heart            27 30.3
 32% 187 Tulane                  38 15.6,   140 Maine                    7 26.1
 32%  51 Northwestern            19 23.2,    37 Duke                    10 29.5
 31%  20 Stanford                41 17.7,     8 Southern California     31 28.7
 29% 173 South Alabama           34 14.2,   108 San Diego State         27 26.9
 28% 197 Lamar                   49 27.0,    82 Sam Houston State       46 50.1
 27% 194 Southern Mississippi    56 23.7,   149 Texas State - San Marc  50 33.5
 24% 216 Idaho                   41 22.6,   147 Wofford                 38 36.3
 21% 224 Grambling               34 25.5,   210 Alabama State           10 38.5
 19% 199 Furman                  16 15.3,    78 Central Florida         15 33.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 1.13  51 1.05  16 0.91  25 1.13  12 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114  88  83.1 1.06

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net