prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 150 Alcorn State 61 45.3, 246 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 19.3
93% 134 Eastern Illinois 40 40.4, 247 Austin Peay 16 10.1
93% 132 McNeese State 37 46.2, 250 Nicholls State 7 8.8
93% 118 California Poly 58 43.6, 213 Idaho State 26 20.9
93% 71 New Hampshire 37 36.4, 212 Elon 14 10.5
93% 53 Jacksonville State 49 58.8, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 4.5
93% 24 Boise State 55 41.6, 153 Hawaii 0 12.0
93% 14 Michigan State 24 45.4, 129 Purdue 21 16.4
93% 11 Louisiana State 44 55.2, 210 Eastern Michigan 22 10.5
92% 85 Appalachian State 31 40.0, 214 Wyoming 13 16.3
92% 77 Marshall 27 48.3, 202 Old Dominion 7 23.7
92% 9 Florida State 24 37.9, 120 Wake Forest 16 13.5
92% 6 Ohio State 34 45.4, 78 Indiana 27 25.4
91% 159 Brown 41 31.9, 233 Rhode Island 31 14.3
91% 55 Harvard 45 41.2, 209 Georgetown 0 8.9
91% 41 Brigham Young 30 32.1, 145 Connecticut 13 11.2
90% 167 New Mexico 38 45.5, 221 New Mexico State 29 28.8
90% 158 Duquesne 27 31.1, 227 Central Connecticut 10 13.1
90% 116 Arkansas State 49 44.5, 206 Idaho 35 26.3
90% 94 Fordham 35 35.8, 204 Lafayette 7 22.9
90% 61 Coastal Carolina 55 48.9, 232 Alabama A&M 0 18.8
89% 133 Liberty 41 36.0, 218 Georgia State 33 21.5
89% 89 Southeast Louisiana 30 44.8, 185 Lamar 27 24.2
89% 30 Auburn 35 40.9, 121 San Jose State 21 20.1
88% 62 Penn State 20 34.5, 136 Army 14 16.5
88% 1 Baylor 63 58.4, 28 Texas Tech 35 42.6
87% 176 Bucknell 28 33.6, 226 Virginia Military 22 20.9
87% 157 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 43.6, 219 Murray State 10 29.8
87% 149 Jacksonville 30 46.4, 238 Morehead State 26 21.2
87% 26 Memphis 24 39.8, 146 South Florida 17 22.1
87% 7 Texas Christian 50 41.2, 59 Texas 7 20.3
86% 38 California 34 46.2, 88 Washington State 28 35.5
86% 18 Oregon 41 45.1, 99 Colorado 24 28.6
85% 107 Sam Houston State 34 45.0, 195 Stephen F. Austin 28 30.6
85% 63 East Carolina 49 41.4, 144 Southern Methodist 23 29.5
84% 123 Princeton 10 46.0, 242 Columbia 5 16.1
84% 82 Temple 37 37.5, 211 North Carolina - Charl 3 19.2
83% 220 Alabama State 41 28.3, 243 Texas Southern 23 16.6
83% 188 Kent State 20 28.8, 215 Miami - Ohio 14 19.1
83% 27 Michigan 28 30.4, 100 Maryland 0 16.9
82% 48 Louisiana Tech 43 41.5, 128 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 26.8
81% 67 Georgia Southern 51 31.1, 155 Northeast Louisiana 31 19.5
81% 47 Houston 38 44.3, 125 Tulsa 24 31.0
79% 122 Montana 27 33.8, 200 California - Davis 13 21.3
79% 20 Stanford 55 34.3, 33 Arizona 17 25.0
76% 171 Dayton 27 36.9, 244 Stetson 14 18.5
75% 137 Southern Mississippi 49 38.2, 190 North Texas 14 27.0
75% 108 Richmond 48 29.3, 164 Maine 17 18.6
75% 57 James Madison 38 32.0, 117 Stony Brook 20 20.4
73% 44 Northwestern 27 22.3, 79 Minnesota 0 13.6
72% 169 San Diego 30 29.9, 222 Marist 27 13.8
71% 60 Toledo 24 35.3, 112 Ball State 10 28.1
70% 75 Kentucky 34 33.7, 126 Eastern Kentucky 27 26.0
68% 198 Morgan State 26 31.7, 240 Delaware State 6 23.0
68% 178 Grambling 59 44.5, 235 Jackson State 27 36.8
68% 140 San Diego State 21 33.7, 148 Fresno State 7 26.8
68% 10 Clemson 24 32.2, 19 Notre Dame 22 25.1
67% 194 Western Carolina 33 23.1, 234 Presbyterian 21 16.5
67% 163 Colgate 28 27.7, 231 Cornell 21 19.1
67% 96 Iowa State 38 30.6, 142 Kansas 13 22.6
67% 32 Duke 9 23.4, 49 Boston College 7 19.1
66% 223 Norfolk State 15 22.1, 241 Howard 12 15.6
66% 181 Saint Francis - Pennsy 58 28.5, 225 East Tennessee State 9 21.4
66% 154 Bethune - Cookman 28 31.1, 205 North Carolina Central 26 25.5
66% 138 Central Arkansas 42 44.3, 193 Abilene Christian 14 34.0
66% 92 Dartmouth 41 33.5, 191 Pennsylvania 20 21.9
66% 42 Illinois State 21 33.9, 52 Northern Iowa 13 26.5
66% 17 Texas A&M 30 32.0, 25 Mississippi State 17 27.7
66% 16 Oklahoma State 36 32.5, 22 Kansas State 34 27.5
65% 248 Valparaiso 42 30.2, 251 Davidson 35 27.0
65% 156 Holy Cross 37 27.5, 160 Albany 0 22.6
65% 115 Yale 27 37.5, 177 Lehigh 12 32.5
65% 104 Ohio 14 21.2, 141 Akron 12 17.7
65% 81 Utah State 33 26.3, 87 Colorado State 18 22.9
65% 65 Navy 33 31.8, 74 Air Force 11 28.5
65% 64 Western Kentucky 49 38.9, 111 Rice 10 36.5
64% 151 North Carolina A&T 45 26.1, 197 Hampton 31 24.3
64% 86 Youngstown State 31 27.9, 119 South Dakota 3 25.6
64% 58 Missouri 24 21.9, 50 South Carolina 10 19.5
64% 21 Oklahoma 44 32.3, 12 West Virginia 24 30.1
63% 165 Texas - San Antonio 25 32.2, 192 Texas - El Paso 6 30.4
61% 103 Indiana State 56 27.9, 131 Missouri State 28 26.7
57% 170 Tennessee - Martin 31 30.1, 207 Tennessee Tech 17 28.8
55% 83 Bowling Green 28 35.5, 113 Buffalo 22 35.0
54% 110 Western Illinois 37 27.9, 95 Southern Illinois 36 27.4
46% 147 Wofford 34 26.0, 180 Mercer 33 26.5
45% 168 Furman 17 22.2, 162 South Carolina State 3 22.9
36% 70 North Dakota State 28 33.2, 51 South Dakota State 7 35.3
35% 199 Southern Utah 44 20.6, 189 Weber State 0 24.6
35% 186 South Alabama 24 27.6, 182 Troy State 18 31.4
35% 184 Monmouth 31 26.5, 124 Bryant 24 28.4
35% 174 Northern Arizona 49 29.8, 97 Montana State 41 36.9
35% 172 Massachusetts 24 24.6, 135 Florida International 14 28.4
35% 98 Central Michigan 29 22.6, 66 Northern Illinois 19 26.4
34% 239 Campbell 24 18.6, 216 Drake 14 26.1
34% 201 North Dakota 19 22.0, 161 Portland State 17 26.8
34% 76 Illinois 14 32.1, 43 Nebraska 13 37.2
34% 37 Louisville 20 26.4, 34 North Carolina State 13 32.0
34% 31 Florida 38 24.6, 2 Mississippi 10 30.7
34% 4 Alabama 38 28.8, 5 Georgia 10 33.7
33% 229 Robert Morris 9 17.1, 217 Wagner 6 25.7
32% 102 Vanderbilt 17 18.5, 73 Middle Tennessee State 13 27.2
32% 80 Cincinnati 34 32.5, 40 Miami - Florida 23 38.0
32% 56 Pittsburgh 17 23.0, 45 Virginia Tech 13 31.3
32% 39 Iowa 10 20.0, 23 Wisconsin 6 28.6
29% 245 Incarnate Word 45 18.2, 208 Northwestern State 31 30.0
29% 175 Tulane 45 16.9, 106 Central Florida 31 25.5
26% 127 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 24.8, 105 Nevada - Reno 17 34.6
23% 179 Delaware 24 14.8, 84 William & Mary 23 24.6
23% 46 Arkansas 24 21.3, 29 Tennessee 20 30.1
18% 236 Northern Colorado 27 23.5, 196 Sacramento State 20 33.8
18% 54 Arizona State 38 23.4, 13 California - Los Angel 23 34.7
15% 249 Savannah State 37 22.5, 237 Florida A&M 27 36.4
11% 35 North Carolina 38 27.1, 8 Georgia Tech 31 41.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.09 47 0.94 15 0.90 31 1.01 16 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 85 86.3 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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