prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 230 Drake 34 36.3, 249 Valparaiso 7 15.5
93% 198 Prairie View 45 51.1, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 25.7
93% 192 Stephen F. Austin 28 46.0, 250 Nicholls State 24 15.2
93% 191 Morgan State 42 46.9, 246 Savannah State 3 21.6
93% 135 Central Arkansas 43 54.3, 253 Houston Baptist 7 12.9
93% 96 Richmond 27 34.3, 206 Elon 14 12.4
93% 81 Air Force 31 40.4, 200 Wyoming 17 17.1
93% 59 Toledo 38 36.8, 190 Kent State 7 12.2
93% 57 Coastal Carolina 24 43.1, 233 Presbyterian 17 8.0
93% 45 Harvard 40 43.8, 229 Cornell 3 12.1
93% 28 Mississippi State 45 42.8, 180 Troy State 17 9.8
93% 12 Ohio State 49 45.1, 123 Maryland 28 14.2
93% 4 Mississippi 52 61.5, 216 New Mexico State 3 16.2
93% 1 Baylor 66 57.5, 168 Kansas 7 19.2
92% 162 Jacksonville 41 45.9, 248 Stetson 14 13.9
92% 97 Ohio 34 37.4, 199 Miami - Ohio 3 15.2
92% 39 Houston 49 46.2, 146 Southern Methodist 28 22.4
91% 101 Samford 49 43.3, 220 Virginia Military 13 24.0
91% 2 Alabama 27 33.3, 52 Arkansas 14 11.6
90% 112 Sam Houston State 59 46.3, 238 Incarnate Word 7 16.1
90% 108 Eastern Kentucky 48 40.0, 215 Tennessee Tech 17 18.5
90% 98 Montana State 35 48.8, 213 Sacramento State 13 27.7
89% 217 Murray State 34 37.5, 245 Austin Peay 18 19.8
89% 47 Arizona State 48 36.2, 105 Colorado 23 21.3
88% 193 Hampton 21 34.9, 241 Delaware State 7 18.4
88% 83 Appalachian State 37 39.4, 204 Georgia State 3 22.0
88% 34 Duke 44 34.8, 124 Army 3 18.5
88% 32 Texas Tech 66 47.1, 86 Iowa State 31 31.8
88% 11 Florida State 29 37.5, 48 Miami - Florida 24 23.9
87% 76 Bowling Green 62 44.9, 158 Massachusetts 38 27.2
87% 62 Temple 49 34.8, 169 Tulane 10 13.8
86% 145 Grambling 37 47.8, 236 Alabama A&M 14 28.1
86% 43 Louisiana Tech 34 37.9, 171 Texas - San Antonio 31 21.2
86% 10 Boise State 41 40.3, 100 Colorado State 10 24.5
85% 152 Florida International 52 34.2, 210 Texas - El Paso 12 20.3
85% 91 Fordham 48 36.9, 186 Pennsylvania 45 25.2
85% 73 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 30.8, 157 Furman 3 14.4
85% 72 Northern Illinois 59 33.8, 109 Ball State 41 21.1
85% 70 Eastern Washington 42 45.0, 107 California Poly 41 35.7
85% 24 Michigan State 31 33.7, 93 Rutgers 24 21.9
84% 84 Marshall 31 41.0, 116 Southern Mississippi 10 29.3
84% 33 Iowa 29 33.9, 79 Illinois 20 19.6
83% 49 Pittsburgh 26 33.2, 102 Virginia 19 21.3
83% 17 Utah 30 42.2, 40 California 24 31.3
83% 15 Notre Dame 41 36.7, 41 Navy 24 24.6
82% 65 Utah State 56 35.3, 167 Fresno State 14 22.9
79% 155 Portland State 66 33.9, 207 North Texas 7 22.0
79% 129 Akron 47 32.8, 188 Eastern Michigan 21 23.0
79% 54 James Madison 51 38.4, 150 Towson 30 26.0
78% 80 Dartmouth 35 38.4, 122 Yale 3 26.3
78% 55 Arizona 44 42.0, 92 Oregon State 7 31.7
77% 121 Nevada - Reno 35 34.5, 175 New Mexico 17 24.6
74% 90 Southern Illinois 73 38.6, 177 Missouri State 26 24.3
74% 46 Brigham Young 45 36.1, 56 East Carolina 38 29.6
72% 131 Princeton 44 32.2, 174 Colgate 20 21.1
71% 201 North Carolina Central 27 29.3, 240 Florida A&M 24 22.6
71% 50 Western Kentucky 58 37.7, 74 Middle Tennessee State 28 28.4
68% 149 Lamar 44 43.0, 208 Abilene Christian 28 33.0
68% 137 Sacred Heart 26 27.0, 205 Robert Morris 13 17.6
68% 136 Charleston Southern 37 31.3, 166 Monmouth 7 24.6
68% 78 Penn State 29 31.6, 68 Indiana 7 24.8
68% 61 South Dakota State 24 36.1, 85 Indiana State 7 29.9
67% 144 North Carolina A&T 27 21.0, 225 Norfolk State 3 12.9
67% 140 The Citadel 39 27.7, 151 Wofford 12 21.8
67% 113 Tulsa 34 35.6, 156 Northeast Louisiana 24 27.9
67% 104 Western Illinois 40 28.3, 142 South Dakota 21 20.9
67% 18 Michigan 38 18.4, 31 Northwestern 0 11.8
66% 154 Bethune - Cookman 17 27.5, 181 South Carolina State 14 21.5
66% 141 Louisiana - Lafayette 49 39.4, 164 Texas State - San Marc 27 33.5
66% 138 Eastern Illinois 33 30.5, 147 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 25.7
66% 8 Clemson 43 31.5, 9 Georgia Tech 24 26.6
65% 209 Marist 13 24.1, 234 Campbell 10 21.6
65% 95 Minnesota 41 26.7, 117 Purdue 13 23.5
65% 51 North Dakota State 31 28.8, 58 Northern Iowa 28 22.8
65% 42 Illinois State 31 30.8, 63 Youngstown State 29 28.3
65% 26 Wisconsin 23 26.4, 53 Nebraska 21 23.8
65% 22 Louisiana State 45 28.3, 66 South Carolina 24 22.9
65% 21 Florida 21 20.3, 64 Missouri 3 16.0
64% 214 Georgetown 38 22.5, 218 Lafayette 7 20.9
64% 173 Dayton 13 22.8, 178 San Diego 12 19.8
64% 143 San Diego State 28 20.6, 179 Hawaii 14 18.3
64% 115 San Jose State 33 29.2, 125 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 27.6
63% 5 Texas Christian 52 34.9, 19 Kansas State 45 33.5
62% 114 Western Michigan 41 26.9, 99 Central Michigan 39 25.8
58% 133 McNeese State 21 26.3, 106 Southeast Louisiana 7 25.2
57% 44 Virginia Tech 28 27.5, 36 North Carolina State 13 26.6
49% 170 Tennessee - Martin 28 27.3, 187 Tennessee State 14 27.6
47% 148 Rice 27 30.4, 172 Florida Atlantic 26 30.7
39% 182 Maine 39 21.4, 195 Albany 7 22.5
36% 87 William & Mary 38 21.6, 103 Villanova 16 23.5
35% 239 Columbia 26 20.4, 228 Wagner 3 24.1
35% 235 Morehead State 34 29.2, 222 Butler 21 32.9
35% 194 Western Carolina 24 29.7, 176 Mercer 21 33.6
35% 189 Southern 45 30.1, 211 Alabama State 34 34.4
35% 132 South Florida 45 21.0, 82 Syracuse 24 24.7
33% 202 California - Davis 38 23.0, 153 Northern Arizona 24 29.9
33% 20 Oklahoma State 33 29.4, 14 West Virginia 26 34.6
32% 196 Lehigh 21 19.1, 183 Bucknell 10 26.0
32% 165 Brown 25 21.2, 128 Holy Cross 24 28.0
29% 130 Connecticut 40 15.8, 126 Central Florida 13 23.0
25% 37 Tennessee 38 30.7, 7 Georgia 31 36.6
16% 226 Rhode Island 20 18.4, 159 Delaware 0 28.7
16% 89 Texas 24 22.4, 13 Oklahoma 17 37.7
14% 231 Central Connecticut 35 18.9, 139 Bryant 33 32.5
13% 219 Idaho State 37 22.3, 185 North Dakota 31 36.1
13% 111 Wake Forest 3 8.3, 60 Boston College 0 24.2
13% 35 Washington 17 17.4, 3 Southern California 12 33.2
12% 227 Gardner - Webb 34 16.4, 134 Liberty 20 29.4
10% 88 Washington State 45 27.4, 25 Oregon 38 47.3
9% 212 Weber State 24 14.5, 110 Montana 21 35.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.91 38 1.08 13 1.13 32 0.91 23 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 86 85.7 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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