prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 230 Butler 38 39.5, 252 Davidson 7 16.0
93% 207 Alabama State 31 35.8, 246 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 21.2
93% 170 Dayton 44 36.3, 250 Valparaiso 14 10.7
93% 79 Eastern Washington 45 55.6, 210 Idaho State 28 32.8
93% 74 Georgia Southern 56 52.7, 212 New Mexico State 26 22.0
93% 72 Jacksonville State 42 41.2, 213 Tennessee Tech 13 18.5
93% 64 Tennessee - Chattanoog 33 44.2, 228 Virginia Military 27 15.8
93% 60 Dartmouth 34 41.7, 223 Central Connecticut 7 13.7
93% 59 Toledo 63 48.8, 190 Eastern Michigan 20 18.1
93% 45 James Madison 51 38.1, 195 Elon 0 17.2
93% 40 Western Kentucky 55 51.1, 227 North Texas 28 20.5
93% 36 Harvard 42 43.0, 233 Lafayette 0 10.6
93% 30 Wisconsin 24 39.0, 132 Purdue 7 13.5
93% 20 Texas Tech 30 51.5, 185 Kansas 20 25.7
91% 189 South Carolina State 49 30.5, 241 Howard 10 10.1
91% 71 Northern Illinois 45 39.8, 202 Miami - Ohio 12 18.7
91% 18 Ohio State 38 33.0, 69 Penn State 10 15.0
90% 148 Tennessee - Martin 44 40.4, 245 Austin Peay 14 13.7
89% 95 Richmond 37 37.3, 215 Rhode Island 12 20.5
89% 56 Temple 30 33.5, 158 Central Florida 16 13.1
89% 49 Illinois State 38 47.9, 211 Missouri State 2 23.1
89% 27 North Carolina 50 33.4, 107 Wake Forest 14 15.4
89% 5 Texas Christian 45 46.1, 99 Iowa State 21 25.9
88% 206 North Carolina Central 39 39.7, 249 Savannah State 22 21.3
88% 155 Saint Francis - Pennsy 43 37.0, 239 Wagner 14 17.4
88% 139 Sacred Heart 31 36.4, 229 Cornell 6 17.0
88% 55 East Carolina 30 49.3, 114 Tulsa 17 34.9
88% 35 Houston 42 44.2, 173 Tulane 7 22.2
88% 21 Georgia 9 30.6, 81 Missouri 6 14.8
88% 11 Florida State 41 32.1, 32 Louisville 21 19.3
88% 7 Clemson 34 25.9, 77 Boston College 17 9.2
88% 1 Baylor 62 48.8, 14 West Virginia 38 30.7
87% 120 Charleston Southern 10 28.0, 224 Presbyterian 7 12.1
85% 248 Nicholls State 38 33.8, 253 Houston Baptist 17 19.0
85% 176 Mercer 52 32.8, 237 East Tennessee State 0 16.1
85% 96 Sam Houston State 49 47.8, 209 Abilene Christian 21 31.0
84% 92 Marshall 33 33.9, 172 Florida Atlantic 17 22.7
83% 29 Mississippi State 45 31.7, 54 Louisiana Tech 20 21.9
82% 161 Southern Utah 44 31.8, 218 Sacramento State 0 21.1
82% 75 Appalachian State 59 30.4, 163 Northeast Louisiana 14 16.1
82% 15 Utah 34 33.3, 47 Arizona State 18 22.2
81% 41 Arizona 38 42.3, 118 Colorado 31 32.0
78% 174 San Diego 27 27.2, 225 Drake 0 13.1
78% 133 Villanova 37 26.3, 205 Albany 0 16.8
78% 68 Bowling Green 59 33.9, 113 Akron 10 24.2
74% 100 Fordham 47 36.1, 140 Holy Cross 41 27.4
72% 86 Middle Tennessee State 42 29.3, 142 Florida International 34 20.3
72% 39 Brigham Young 38 36.6, 65 Cincinnati 24 29.1
71% 80 South Carolina 19 24.5, 94 Vanderbilt 10 15.4
70% 128 Southern Mississippi 32 35.7, 149 Texas - San Antonio 10 27.0
68% 244 Texas Southern 49 28.0, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 19.4
68% 234 Campbell 16 32.8, 247 Stetson 6 23.3
68% 104 Central Michigan 51 29.9, 124 Buffalo 14 24.5
68% 78 Washington State 52 34.9, 108 Oregon State 31 27.0
68% 37 Auburn 30 33.1, 70 Kentucky 27 28.2
67% 166 Pennsylvania 42 29.8, 231 Columbia 7 22.4
67% 127 Arkansas State 49 35.2, 181 South Alabama 31 29.5
67% 12 Stanford 56 28.9, 24 California - Los Angel 35 21.9
66% 130 North Carolina A&T 24 30.0, 157 Bethune - Cookman 14 23.3
66% 101 Eastern Kentucky 27 31.9, 144 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 27.0
66% 46 Miami - Florida 30 30.7, 42 Virginia Tech 20 24.3
65% 238 Alabama A&M 28 31.5, 236 Jackson State 22 27.9
65% 203 Old Dominion 37 34.4, 220 North Carolina - Charl 34 29.3
65% 153 Bryant 38 24.0, 164 Duquesne 17 19.9
65% 73 William & Mary 34 29.3, 66 New Hampshire 18 25.3
65% 19 Louisiana State 35 26.2, 13 Florida 28 21.5
65% 2 Alabama 41 33.2, 17 Texas A&M 23 29.7
64% 222 Kennesaw State 12 52.8, 214 Gardner - Webb 7 45.2
64% 175 New Mexico 28 24.8, 186 Hawaii 27 22.7
64% 146 Army 21 23.2, 199 Bucknell 14 21.0
64% 58 Nebraska 48 24.4, 84 Minnesota 25 22.6
60% 242 Florida A&M 41 23.4, 240 Delaware State 13 22.3
55% 183 Monmouth 20 28.7, 159 Liberty 17 28.4
53% 198 Weber State 25 22.4, 179 North Dakota 24 22.1
52% 109 Colorado State 38 29.1, 90 Air Force 23 28.9
52% 102 Virginia 44 27.6, 93 Syracuse 38 27.4
50% 117 Portland State 59 34.8, 98 Montana State 42 34.8
47% 126 McNeese State 28 25.8, 137 Central Arkansas 13 26.2
46% 38 Iowa 40 19.7, 53 Northwestern 10 20.1
42% 178 Colgate 17 21.3, 193 Georgetown 13 22.0
36% 147 Eastern Illinois 25 24.9, 197 Tennessee State 22 26.7
36% 143 Yale 21 25.3, 154 Maine 10 27.7
36% 106 Indiana State 39 32.9, 76 Southern Illinois 36 34.7
36% 97 South Florida 28 20.3, 110 Connecticut 20 21.8
36% 91 Rutgers 55 32.8, 82 Indiana 52 34.5
35% 180 Kent State 15 23.9, 156 Massachusetts 10 27.8
35% 152 Brown 38 29.5, 103 Princeton 31 32.9
35% 62 South Dakota State 38 25.8, 67 Youngstown State 8 28.4
35% 25 Oklahoma 55 30.4, 23 Kansas State 0 34.8
35% 10 Notre Dame 41 30.1, 4 Southern California 31 32.6
34% 232 Northern Colorado 56 21.6, 196 California - Davis 27 26.5
34% 192 Hampton 20 28.9, 182 Morgan State 10 32.9
34% 177 Fresno State 31 32.1, 119 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 36.4
34% 141 San Diego State 30 22.7, 111 San Jose State 7 27.8
33% 188 Prairie View 47 43.1, 168 Southern 42 49.7
33% 138 Grambling 35 38.3, 134 Alcorn State 34 45.5
33% 48 Oregon 26 26.9, 22 Washington 20 33.6
33% 33 Memphis 37 32.6, 6 Mississippi 24 39.6
31% 34 Michigan State 27 15.8, 3 Michigan 23 23.6
30% 51 Utah State 52 22.3, 8 Boise State 26 30.9
27% 150 Towson 21 17.2, 116 Stony Brook 14 28.1
25% 122 The Citadel 44 26.4, 87 Samford 25 35.1
25% 115 Western Michigan 49 21.8, 85 Ohio 14 30.6
24% 89 Western Illinois 24 19.3, 61 Northern Iowa 19 30.4
23% 191 Western Carolina 24 19.1, 162 Wofford 17 29.5
18% 219 Northwestern State 48 32.9, 136 Lamar 35 42.4
18% 201 Idaho 19 30.4, 167 Troy State 16 41.0
18% 194 Wyoming 28 20.7, 112 Nevada - Reno 21 31.7
16% 52 Pittsburgh 31 25.5, 16 Georgia Tech 28 36.9
14% 216 Georgia State 31 24.2, 121 Ball State 19 39.9
11% 204 Stephen F. Austin 28 19.6, 123 Southeast Louisiana 27 38.6
11% 135 South Dakota 24 17.0, 50 North Dakota State 21 36.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.23 40 0.80 14 0.77 31 0.90 18 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 77 85.0 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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