prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 202 Marist 31 37.4, 252 Davidson 10 12.0
94% 142 Southeast Louisiana 22 49.8, 253 Houston Baptist 7 6.5
94% 126 Grambling 49 57.3, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 18.5
94% 93 Marshall 30 47.4, 223 North Texas 13 15.2
94% 90 Sam Houston State 37 55.1, 244 Nicholls State 7 13.5
94% 72 Jacksonville State 27 48.0, 245 Austin Peay 7 7.4
94% 64 Northern Illinois 49 51.0, 188 Eastern Michigan 21 22.7
94% 58 Dartmouth 13 41.5, 233 Columbia 9 6.9
94% 16 Oklahoma State 58 45.7, 172 Kansas 10 11.7
94% 14 Boise State 34 49.7, 189 Wyoming 14 10.9
94% 1 Baylor 45 61.1, 104 Iowa State 27 22.7
93% 131 North Carolina A&T 65 39.3, 241 Howard 14 9.8
93% 110 Montana State 63 48.6, 247 East Tennessee State 7 15.4
93% 109 McNeese State 47 39.8, 206 Northwestern State 27 16.5
93% 78 Western Michigan 35 43.7, 215 Miami - Ohio 13 17.9
93% 62 William & Mary 40 37.9, 180 Hampton 7 14.3
93% 44 Brigham Young 70 46.4, 242 Wagner 6 7.7
92% 137 Holy Cross 42 35.1, 237 Lafayette 0 13.3
92% 96 Air Force 42 43.4, 170 Fresno State 14 25.4
92% 51 Navy 31 42.6, 185 Tulane 14 16.1
92% 40 Toledo 51 40.0, 159 Massachusetts 35 18.7
92% 24 Michigan State 52 41.3, 87 Indiana 26 23.7
91% 18 North Carolina 26 42.2, 108 Virginia 13 21.7
91% 2 Alabama 19 38.9, 31 Tennessee 14 21.9
90% 100 Fordham 59 42.8, 183 Lehigh 42 27.1
90% 26 Mississippi State 42 33.2, 69 Kentucky 16 19.7
89% 161 Bethune - Cookman 59 29.0, 232 Norfolk State 49 13.4
89% 149 Eastern Illinois 51 36.3, 214 Tennessee Tech 20 20.5
89% 63 Coastal Carolina 23 39.4, 181 Monmouth 20 26.6
89% 13 Ohio State 49 39.1, 85 Rutgers 7 23.5
88% 135 Montana 42 32.2, 194 North Dakota 16 17.7
88% 49 Bowling Green 48 37.7, 176 Kent State 0 21.8
88% 33 Harvard 42 41.9, 103 Princeton 7 21.2
88% 28 Houston 59 39.9, 154 Central Florida 10 20.9
88% 21 Memphis 66 48.4, 107 Tulsa 42 32.8
87% 121 South Dakota 40 39.5, 226 Missouri State 10 19.4
87% 97 Eastern Washington 43 46.4, 205 Northern Colorado 41 28.3
87% 43 Illinois State 48 36.9, 86 Western Illinois 28 21.6
86% 236 Jackson State 37 37.4, 246 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 3 27.3
86% 162 Dayton 27 28.7, 225 Butler 24 12.1
86% 144 Tennessee - Martin 52 44.1, 209 Murray State 45 27.3
86% 139 Florida International 41 33.8, 204 Old Dominion 12 20.2
86% 94 Eastern Kentucky 45 34.1, 195 Tennessee State 21 18.1
86% 89 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 28.1, 186 Wofford 17 15.0
86% 83 South Florida 38 35.9, 129 Southern Methodist 14 23.0
86% 47 North Carolina State 35 29.5, 124 Wake Forest 17 16.5
85% 171 South Carolina State 34 25.6, 243 Delaware State 7 10.5
85% 143 Brown 44 32.9, 231 Cornell 24 20.6
81% 71 Cincinnati 37 33.1, 112 Connecticut 13 22.5
81% 39 Louisville 17 22.2, 75 Boston College 14 12.9
81% 37 Wisconsin 24 27.4, 79 Illinois 13 17.6
80% 134 San Jose State 31 35.0, 178 New Mexico 21 25.0
80% 19 Louisiana State 48 41.6, 41 Western Kentucky 20 29.6
79% 68 Central Michigan 23 33.6, 152 Ball State 21 23.6
79% 9 Oklahoma 63 45.8, 27 Texas Tech 27 35.7
78% 113 Southern Mississippi 44 39.5, 219 North Carolina - Charl 10 26.0
77% 133 Nevada - Reno 30 26.8, 190 Hawaii 20 17.1
74% 122 Southern Utah 34 31.5, 208 California - Davis 6 21.7
74% 102 The Citadel 38 28.7, 168 Furman 17 21.8
73% 59 Appalachian State 31 33.9, 65 Georgia Southern 13 26.0
71% 4 Stanford 31 27.0, 25 Washington 14 16.9
69% 177 Troy State 52 37.6, 211 New Mexico State 7 30.7
69% 164 Northern Arizona 52 30.5, 193 Weber State 36 21.6
69% 66 Louisiana Tech 45 37.2, 82 Middle Tennessee State 16 29.4
69% 48 Pittsburgh 23 32.4, 99 Syracuse 20 25.2
68% 179 Southern 40 39.1, 239 Texas Southern 21 29.7
68% 125 Charleston Southern 34 22.5, 216 Gardner - Webb 0 10.6
68% 80 Penn State 31 26.0, 118 Maryland 30 19.8
67% 32 California - Los Angel 40 41.2, 36 California 24 35.2
67% 12 Mississippi 23 36.8, 23 Texas A&M 3 31.2
67% 5 Southern California 42 32.8, 11 Utah 24 25.4
66% 173 Duquesne 16 22.3, 207 Robert Morris 7 16.5
66% 166 Texas State - San Marc 36 40.1, 192 South Alabama 18 33.6
66% 147 Rice 38 33.0, 160 Army 31 28.6
66% 141 Bryant 26 34.5, 157 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 28.5
66% 116 Arkansas State 37 37.6, 146 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 31.7
66% 67 North Dakota State 28 32.7, 105 Indiana State 14 27.8
66% 3 Clemson 58 31.3, 45 Miami - Florida 0 25.6
65% 84 Southern Illinois 38 31.2, 76 Youngstown State 31 29.1
64% 167 Liberty 45 50.1, 203 Kennesaw State 35 43.8
64% 52 Arkansas 54 24.3, 54 Auburn 46 22.4
56% 201 North Carolina Central 20 27.1, 197 Morgan State 17 26.6
56% 60 Temple 24 30.6, 57 East Carolina 14 30.1
55% 248 Stetson 37 30.4, 250 Valparaiso 14 29.8
50% 140 Pennsylvania 34 30.2, 130 Yale 20 30.2
45% 235 Sacramento State 38 30.0, 212 Idaho State 13 30.5
39% 34 Duke 45 21.9, 42 Virginia Tech 43 22.9
39% 22 Georgia Tech 22 31.7, 10 Florida State 16 32.5
36% 150 Central Arkansas 35 34.7, 153 Lamar 17 36.8
36% 136 Buffalo 41 25.0, 115 Ohio 17 26.4
36% 117 Colorado 17 29.8, 123 Oregon State 13 31.6
36% 92 Portland State 38 30.2, 114 California Poly 35 32.3
36% 73 Texas 23 27.0, 56 Kansas State 9 28.7
35% 240 Incarnate Word 25 26.4, 220 Abilene Christian 20 32.5
35% 198 Idaho 27 28.3, 163 Northeast Louisiana 13 32.7
35% 174 Maine 23 15.6, 127 Stony Brook 10 19.1
35% 95 Vanderbilt 10 10.2, 81 Missouri 3 13.6
34% 200 Georgetown 17 16.1, 199 Bucknell 9 20.3
34% 132 Towson 28 19.9, 111 Villanova 21 24.8
33% 227 Morehead State 31 25.9, 230 Campbell 27 31.0
32% 229 Drake 28 18.1, 158 Jacksonville 24 26.7
32% 74 Northern Iowa 10 22.1, 55 South Dakota State 7 28.3
30% 218 Texas - El Paso 27 26.4, 187 Florida Atlantic 17 33.6
28% 61 Washington State 45 34.8, 50 Arizona 42 42.1
24% 175 Western Carolina 56 25.3, 106 Samford 36 36.9
22% 169 Delaware 31 21.1, 88 New Hampshire 14 30.2
20% 120 San Diego State 48 17.7, 29 Utah State 14 30.0
19% 70 Northwestern 30 19.6, 46 Nebraska 28 28.4
13% 101 Richmond 59 27.0, 35 James Madison 49 42.5
10% 222 Virginia Military 28 25.6, 165 Mercer 21 43.3
8% 224 Central Connecticut 26 16.2, 145 Sacred Heart 10 36.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.11 37 0.82 13 1.01 29 1.04 27 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 84 87.1 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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