2015 Week 10 (29-31 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 94% 181 Prairie View            54 51.3,   248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   29 27.3
 94% 167 Duquesne                35 33.1,   241 Wagner                  17  7.3
 94% 112 Princeton               47 42.4,   235 Cornell                 21 17.9
 94% 109 New Hampshire           20 40.3,   209 Rhode Island            17 16.8
 94%  42 Appalachian State       44 39.3,   149 Troy State              41 13.4
 94%  19 Florida State           45 41.4,    90 Syracuse                21 17.0
 94%  14 Memphis                 41 52.0,   175 Tulane                  13 18.6
 94%   3 Oklahoma                62 47.6,   186 Kansas                   7 10.5
 93% 193 Tennessee State         20 35.5,   244 Austin Peay              6  9.6
 93% 165 Lamar                   55 49.2,   252 Houston Baptist          7 17.2
 93%  96 Southern Mississippi    34 46.8,   223 Texas - El Paso         13 20.4
 93%  86 Richmond                38 39.7,   213 Albany                  31 17.0
 93%  60 South Dakota State      39 43.8,   233 Missouri State           0 14.4
 93%  23 Boise State             55 41.5,   141 Nevada - Las Vegas      27 19.9
 93%  15 Utah                    27 41.3,   136 Oregon State            12 14.8
 92%  55 Utah State              58 37.2,   161 Wyoming                 27 14.4
 92%  50 Western Kentucky        55 48.4,   211 Old Dominion            30 24.2
 92%  36 Wisconsin               48 32.3,   100 Rutgers                 10 13.7
 92%  26 Iowa                    31 39.0,   121 Maryland                15 17.6
 91% 231 Campbell                39 34.3,   253 Davidson                 9 15.4
 91% 118 North Carolina A&T      28 38.2,   236 Florida A&M             10 15.9
 91%  40 Illinois State          27 41.9,   110 Indiana State           24 24.7
 90% 154 Bethune - Cookman       49 37.3,   245 Delaware State          21 18.4
 90% 114 Buffalo                 29 37.0,   217 Miami - Ohio            24 20.6
 90% 107 Eastern Washington      14 47.2,   187 Weber State             13 29.6
 90%  67 Cincinnati              52 41.0,   169 Central Florida          7 21.4
 90%  32 California - Los Angel  35 40.3,   117 Colorado                31 21.1
 89% 157 San Diego               47 38.0,   243 Stetson                 16 13.5
 89% 155 Southeast Missouri Sta  38 35.4,   221 Tennessee Tech          17 20.2
 89% 108 McNeese State           15 38.8,   224 Abilene Christian       13 18.4
 89%  83 Western Michigan        58 47.4,   180 Eastern Michigan        28 29.6
 89%  75 Georgia Southern        37 46.6,   164 Texas State - San Marc  13 27.7
 89%  28 Texas A&M               35 36.5,    76 South Carolina          28 21.3
 89%  18 Houston                 34 34.2,    89 Vanderbilt               0 15.6
 88% 234 Jackson State           26 36.5,   251 Mississippi Valley Sta  16 22.0
 88% 116 Arkansas State          48 41.2,   192 Georgia State           34 24.7
 88% 115 Marshall                34 39.7,   230 North Carolina - Charl  10 18.6
 87% 133 Eastern Illinois        34 40.1,   204 Murray State            20 28.1
 87% 101 Tennessee - Chattanoog  41 33.8,   151 Western Carolina        13 18.5
 87%  43 Louisville              20 26.7,   130 Wake Forest             19 13.5
 86% 119 Villanova               13 24.9,   166 Maine                    3 11.8
 86%  58 Louisiana Tech          42 41.2,   146 Rice                    17 30.0
 86%  13 Michigan                29 25.3,    99 Minnesota               26 12.2
 85% 194 Stephen F. Austin       55 35.7,   237 Incarnate Word          21 19.5
 85%  65 Northern Iowa           20 27.9,   128 South Dakota             7 16.2
 85%  25 Harvard                 14 31.1,    70 Dartmouth               13 15.8
 84%  87 The Citadel             21 38.3,   176 Mercer                  19 24.5
 83% 174 South Carolina State    34 26.1,   191 Hampton                 20 17.1
 83%  92 Air Force               58 28.5,   183 Hawaii                   7 18.2
 83%  51 Arkansas                63 37.5,   145 Tennessee - Martin      28 21.8
 82% 208 Alabama State           35 30.3,   238 Alabama A&M             20 19.8
 82%   2 Clemson                 56 33.6,    39 North Carolina State    41 22.9
 81%   6 Stanford                30 37.8,    56 Washington State        28 26.6
 79%  31 Tennessee               52 34.9,    79 Kentucky                21 27.0
 78% 205 Northwestern State      37 38.1,   242 Nicholls State          21 27.4
 76% 173 Wofford                 41 31.0,   212 Virginia Military       20 23.8
 73%   7 Texas Christian         40 41.3,    20 West Virginia           10 31.8
 72% 148 Louisiana - Lafayette   30 32.5,   184 Northeast Louisiana     24 22.4
 71% 246 Howard                  55 33.9,   247 Savannah State           9 26.2
 71%  81 Penn State              39 25.4,    78 Illinois                 0 18.0
 70% 152 Northern Arizona        63 36.2,   188 Northern Colorado       21 25.3
 70% 123 Towson                  19 26.0,   158 Delaware                 0 18.9
 70%  77 Portland State          35 34.0,   125 Montana                 16 25.9
 70%  52 Navy                    29 30.7,    68 South Florida           17 21.8
 69% 202 Marist                  35 26.6,   219 Butler                  14 18.8
 69% 201 North Carolina Central  24 24.3,   229 Norfolk State           16 17.1
 68% 135 Central Arkansas        21 28.8,   170 Southeast Louisiana     16 21.0
 68%  69 Central Michigan        14 25.9,   139 Akron                    6 18.5
 68%  38 Washington              49 33.6,    49 Arizona                  3 26.8
 68%  11 Mississippi             27 34.2,    53 Auburn                  19 27.9
 68%   5 Southern California     27 39.4,    33 California              21 33.1
 67% 206 Bucknell                35 19.3,   240 Lafayette               24 12.8
 67% 120 Holy Cross              34 29.5,   144 Bryant                  33 22.0
 67%  85 Jacksonville State      34 33.1,    84 Eastern Kentucky         0 26.8
 67%   8 Notre Dame              24 31.1,    54 Temple                  20 24.2
 66% 189 Lehigh                  33 29.0,   197 Georgetown              28 24.8
 66% 156 Ball State              20 35.4,   153 Massachusetts           10 30.0
 66% 150 Saint Francis - Pennsy  23 33.8,   179 Sacred Heart            14 27.6
 65% 143 Alcorn State            48 41.1,   171 Southern                 7 37.3
 65%  21 North Carolina          26 29.7,    45 Pittsburgh              19 26.9
 65%  10 Oklahoma State          70 45.5,    35 Texas Tech              53 42.0
 64% 172 Dayton                  31 22.1,   162 Jacksonville            14 19.4
 64% 111 Tulsa                   40 39.0,   131 Southern Methodist      31 37.7
 64%  57 William & Mary          44 34.7,    41 James Madison           41 32.2
 63% 113 Southern Utah           54 28.4,   105 California Poly         37 26.8
 63%  59 North Dakota State      35 33.0,    72 Southern Illinois       29 31.7
 61% 215 Morehead State          38 26.8,   227 Drake                   35 26.0
 54% 214 Central Connecticut     34 21.8,   207 Robert Morris            0 21.5
 54%  17 Florida                 27 26.6,    30 Georgia                  3 26.2
 51% 198 Kennesaw State          23 48.2,   168 Monmouth                13 47.9

 46%  34 Oregon                  61 35.3,    46 Arizona State           55 35.6
 41%  48 Virginia Tech           26 18.5,    73 Boston College          10 19.3
 38%  82 Youngstown State        23 25.9,    80 Western Illinois        21 26.9
 36% 225 Gardner - Webb          14  9.2,   220 Presbyterian            10 11.5
 35% 102 Charleston Southern     33 26.1,    71 Coastal Carolina        25 28.6
 35%  97 Iowa State              24 25.4,    66 Texas                    0 28.2
 35%  88 San Diego State         41 25.7,   103 Colorado State          17 28.1
 34% 137 Pennsylvania            48 28.2,   129 Brown                   28 33.9
 33% 226 New Mexico State        55 36.0,   190 Idaho                   48 41.5
 33% 200 Florida Atlantic        31 19.8,   138 Florida International   17 26.0
 30% 124 Connecticut             31 24.1,    61 East Carolina           13 30.2
 24% 222 North Texas             30 23.5,   160 Texas - San Antonio     23 33.2
 21% 185 Colgate                 31 29.2,    93 Fordham                 29 38.6
 17% 182 Furman                  20 22.4,   126 Samford                 17 34.0
 16%  74 Miami - Florida         30 22.2,    27 Duke                    27 33.5
 14% 196 North Dakota            44 29.6,   106 Montana State           38 41.9
 13% 122 Purdue                  55 27.6,    47 Nebraska                45 38.2
 12% 104 Virginia                27 24.2,    22 Georgia Tech            21 39.0
 11% 218 Columbia                17 14.0,   147 Yale                     7 30.8
 11% 210 Elon                    21  7.5,   140 Stony Brook              7 25.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 1.10  35 1.12  10 1.07  36 0.93  24 1.08   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110  90  86.7 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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