prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 183 Jacksonville 42 47.6, 253 Davidson 12 8.1
94% 95 The Citadel 35 44.7, 217 Virginia Military 14 19.4
94% 88 Texas 59 35.4, 207 Kansas 20 9.5
94% 85 Youngstown State 47 45.8, 236 Missouri State 7 10.6
94% 83 Coastal Carolina 46 35.8, 228 Gardner - Webb 0 6.2
94% 60 Louisiana Tech 56 49.6, 216 North Texas 13 16.8
94% 59 Dartmouth 21 42.2, 233 Cornell 3 7.1
94% 26 Harvard 24 34.5, 205 Columbia 16 5.0
94% 3 Oklahoma 52 44.1, 81 Iowa State 16 15.2
93% 230 Norfolk State 20 37.8, 250 Savannah State 17 14.8
93% 160 Stony Brook 14 35.5, 237 Howard 9 10.0
93% 146 Southeast Missouri Sta 44 34.6, 245 Austin Peay 15 11.5
93% 112 California Poly 36 40.9, 223 Sacramento State 14 21.4
93% 55 Western Kentucky 35 45.6, 187 Florida Atlantic 19 20.6
93% 15 Michigan 49 38.7, 115 Rutgers 16 13.0
93% 12 Florida 9 27.7, 103 Vanderbilt 7 3.7
93% 9 Ohio State 28 39.0, 84 Minnesota 14 13.1
92% 227 Butler 42 40.7, 249 Valparaiso 21 19.9
92% 195 Hampton 33 36.3, 235 Florida A&M 0 19.2
92% 6 Southern California 38 45.9, 70 Arizona 30 25.0
91% 142 Grambling 41 47.4, 242 Texas Southern 15 24.5
91% 76 Air Force 20 37.5, 156 Army 3 20.8
91% 52 William & Mary 34 32.2, 198 Elon 13 10.7
91% 1 Baylor 31 49.0, 63 Kansas State 24 31.8
90% 209 North Carolina Central 43 31.4, 246 Delaware State 10 13.5
90% 203 Southern 57 41.4, 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 25.4
90% 201 Marist 49 35.6, 243 Stetson 14 14.2
90% 140 Bryant 40 37.7, 241 Wagner 10 16.8
90% 127 Montana 33 39.2, 226 Idaho State 27 23.2
90% 25 Wisconsin 31 31.8, 114 Maryland 24 14.7
90% 10 Stanford 42 39.4, 113 Colorado 10 20.1
89% 141 Central Arkansas 36 36.9, 173 Stephen F. Austin 24 24.4
89% 99 Fordham 24 39.0, 213 Bucknell 16 21.3
89% 69 Western Michigan 54 39.6, 157 Ball State 7 22.2
89% 48 Georgia 27 36.8, 94 Kentucky 3 22.0
89% 28 Bowling Green 62 40.3, 124 Ohio 24 23.7
89% 18 Tennessee 27 38.0, 78 South Carolina 24 20.5
88% 50 Louisville 41 36.4, 91 Syracuse 17 21.4
88% 49 Temple 60 35.1, 132 Southern Methodist 40 19.5
88% 11 Houston 33 44.1, 58 Cincinnati 30 29.7
87% 147 San Diego 31 28.4, 229 Campbell 27 13.8
87% 145 Bethune - Cookman 38 38.1, 197 Morgan State 14 26.8
87% 144 Florida International 48 35.9, 231 North Carolina - Charl 31 15.4
87% 62 Miami - Florida 27 36.0, 96 Virginia 21 23.3
87% 40 Brigham Young 17 35.3, 138 San Jose State 16 22.5
87% 38 California - Los Angel 41 35.3, 133 Oregon State 0 22.0
86% 232 Robert Morris 21 26.1, 247 East Tennessee State 9 8.1
86% 121 Villanova 24 27.3, 202 Rhode Island 3 13.8
86% 98 Tulsa 45 39.6, 191 Central Florida 30 26.0
86% 2 Clemson 23 35.3, 19 Florida State 13 22.5
85% 172 Weber State 23 31.5, 215 California - Davis 3 19.9
85% 130 Troy State 51 31.4, 189 Northeast Louisiana 14 20.5
84% 164 Liberty 21 24.6, 224 Presbyterian 13 10.8
84% 27 Iowa 35 38.9, 92 Indiana 27 28.1
83% 117 Buffalo 18 27.4, 204 Kent State 17 17.4
82% 75 Northern Iowa 59 28.9, 102 Indiana State 13 19.0
82% 47 North Dakota State 59 34.1, 87 Western Illinois 7 21.4
79% 108 Connecticut 7 27.5, 169 Tulane 3 17.5
78% 184 Colgate 28 27.9, 238 Lafayette 19 17.4
78% 136 Nevada - Las Vegas 41 29.3, 193 Hawaii 21 20.1
78% 67 Jacksonville State 24 33.6, 135 Eastern Illinois 3 24.8
77% 5 Alabama 30 31.2, 14 Louisiana State 16 21.3
74% 166 Dayton 20 30.6, 212 Morehead State 15 21.7
74% 7 Notre Dame 42 32.8, 45 Pittsburgh 30 24.8
72% 16 Mississippi State 31 21.5, 90 Missouri 13 13.3
68% 151 Saint Francis - Pennsy 22 32.8, 192 Central Connecticut 13 26.4
67% 208 Alabama State 17 32.1, 234 Jackson State 12 26.7
67% 188 South Alabama 52 36.7, 185 Idaho 45 31.0
67% 137 Nevada - Reno 30 35.8, 176 Fresno State 16 30.4
67% 129 Colorado State 26 31.1, 159 Wyoming 7 25.7
67% 33 West Virginia 31 45.8, 35 Texas Tech 26 39.1
66% 206 Northwestern State 39 39.3, 220 Abilene Christian 22 34.7
66% 97 Charleston Southern 28 45.5, 196 Kennesaw State 14 32.9
66% 34 Oregon 44 46.0, 31 California 28 41.0
66% 17 North Carolina 66 30.6, 29 Duke 31 25.6
65% 210 Miami - Ohio 28 38.1, 186 Eastern Michigan 13 35.3
65% 150 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 34.3, 181 Georgia State 21 31.5
65% 125 North Carolina A&T 9 20.9, 158 South Carolina State 6 18.3
65% 119 Towson 10 23.8, 170 Maine 7 20.4
65% 51 South Dakota State 25 28.2, 54 Illinois State 20 25.3
64% 161 Yale 41 29.1, 149 Brown 14 27.5
64% 143 Akron 17 25.6, 153 Massachusetts 13 23.8
64% 116 McNeese State 27 29.3, 93 Sam Houston State 10 27.0
64% 74 Northwestern 23 18.2, 64 Penn State 21 16.8
64% 53 Washington State 38 35.9, 56 Arizona State 24 34.3
64% 37 North Carolina State 24 23.1, 77 Boston College 8 20.9
61% 154 Western Carolina 48 25.8, 165 Furman 10 24.6
58% 111 Pennsylvania 26 35.5, 101 Princeton 23 34.8
57% 8 Oklahoma State 49 41.2, 4 Texas Christian 29 40.5
47% 106 Middle Tennessee State 27 30.1, 109 Marshall 24 30.4
37% 126 New Hampshire 30 32.4, 86 Richmond 25 33.7
36% 175 Duquesne 41 20.1, 182 Sacred Heart 14 21.9
36% 82 Southern Utah 34 36.7, 107 Montana State 23 38.7
35% 131 South Dakota 34 29.6, 79 Southern Illinois 31 32.8
35% 110 Illinois 48 28.9, 100 Purdue 14 30.8
35% 24 Utah 34 20.1, 23 Washington 23 22.9
34% 66 South Florida 22 27.9, 68 East Carolina 17 32.7
33% 190 Lehigh 51 26.6, 134 Holy Cross 38 32.8
33% 167 Mercer 17 21.1, 89 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 29.3
33% 61 Nebraska 39 29.1, 22 Michigan State 38 34.7
32% 128 Northern Arizona 52 36.6, 120 Eastern Washington 30 45.0
27% 65 Northern Illinois 32 24.9, 39 Toledo 27 33.0
25% 214 Old Dominion 36 24.2, 180 Texas - San Antonio 31 34.2
18% 46 Navy 45 29.0, 20 Memphis 20 39.2
16% 222 Texas - El Paso 24 28.2, 155 Rice 21 38.1
15% 148 Tennessee - Martin 42 28.9, 104 Eastern Kentucky 35 41.8
14% 44 Arkansas 53 19.6, 13 Mississippi 52 33.1
13% 218 Albany 17 12.3, 162 Delaware 6 25.6
13% 211 Murray State 46 23.2, 199 Tennessee State 43 34.8
13% 179 Prairie View 40 34.1, 123 Alcorn State 34 49.0
13% 57 Auburn 26 28.6, 32 Texas A&M 10 37.8
12% 200 Northern Colorado 35 22.3, 72 Portland State 32 41.2
11% 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 27 15.3, 239 Alabama A&M 24 32.6
11% 240 Incarnate Word 16 10.6, 177 Southeast Louisiana 2 35.4
11% 219 New Mexico State 31 33.6, 168 Texas State - San Marc 21 49.2
10% 178 New Mexico 14 21.5, 43 Utah State 13 40.2
10% 118 Arkansas State 40 23.1, 42 Appalachian State 27 40.9
6% 244 Nicholls State 30 19.0, 152 Lamar 28 45.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.19 33 1.02 10 1.05 43 0.83 29 0.97 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 118 89 95.1 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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