2015 Week 14 (24-28 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 94%  73 Central Michigan        35 46.3,   202 Eastern Michigan        28 17.9
 94%  66 Georgia Southern        55 43.1,   190 South Alabama           17 15.6
 94%  65 Appalachian State       28 42.3,   168 Louisiana - Lafayette    7 19.1
 94%  15 Oregon                  52 53.1,   155 Oregon State            42 21.3
 93% 106 Alcorn State            14 43.5,   239 Jackson State           10 17.1
 92%  75 Kansas State            45 37.2,   203 Kansas                  14 16.2
 92%  36 Utah                    20 35.1,   107 Colorado                14 15.5
 92%  34 Memphis                 63 51.5,   125 Southern Methodist       0 28.1
 91%  85 Arkansas State          52 50.1,   197 New Mexico State        28 30.9
 91%  14 Bowling Green           48 50.6,   169 Ball State              10 26.4
 90%  46 Northern Iowa           53 31.3,   141 Eastern Illinois        17 12.8
 89%  63 William & Mary          52 31.2,   147 Duquesne                49 14.3
 89%  37 Tennessee               53 26.5,   123 Vanderbilt              28  9.5
 89%  20 West Virginia           30 35.7,    82 Iowa State               6 20.4
 89%  19 South Florida           44 40.8,   211 Central Florida          3 14.8
 88%  50 San Diego State         31 34.9,   126 Nevada - Reno           14 18.8
 88%   4 Clemson                 37 36.0,    80 South Carolina          32 20.2
 88%   2 Alabama                 29 33.3,    58 Auburn                  13 20.2
 87% 129 Akron                   20 23.2,   196 Kent State               0 10.5
 86%  24 Michigan State          55 28.0,    64 Penn State              16 15.9
 85%  40 Temple                  27 24.5,    98 Connecticut              3 12.7
 85%  23 Arkansas                28 28.5,    88 Missouri                 3 16.4
 79%  49 Boise State             40 36.2,   108 San Jose State          23 26.9
 77% 195 Rice                    27 38.7,   231 North Carolina - Charl   7 27.1
 71% 113 Colorado State          34 36.4,   178 Fresno State            31 29.2
 70%  21 Washington              45 30.1,    39 Washington State        10 22.3
 69%  55 Western Kentucky        49 38.8,    89 Marshall                28 30.9
 68%   5 North Carolina          45 38.6,    32 North Carolina State    34 31.7
 67% 122 Middle Tennessee State  42 32.6,   181 Texas - San Antonio      7 25.5
 67% 109 Tulsa                   45 37.1,   163 Tulane                  34 31.8
 67%  71 Northwestern            24 23.9,   100 Illinois                14 17.8
 67%  62 Duke                    27 26.4,   105 Wake Forest             21 20.5
 67%  44 Wisconsin               31 23.4,    81 Minnesota               21 17.3
 67%  27 Louisiana State         19 31.2,    41 Texas A&M                7 24.3
 67%   7 Stanford                38 34.4,     9 Notre Dame              36 28.1
 66% 213 Hawaii                  28 26.2,   227 Northeast Louisiana     26 20.3
 66% 154 Florida Atlantic        33 30.8,   205 Old Dominion            31 24.9
 66% 145 Grambling               34 45.6,   175 Southern                23 40.5
 66%  51 Louisville              38 31.8,    99 Kentucky                24 27.6
 66%  35 California              48 39.0,    43 Arizona State           46 35.2
 66%  30 Virginia Tech           23 31.6,    78 Virginia                20 26.4
 66%  18 Southern California     40 31.5,    25 California - Los Angel  21 26.1
 66%   1 Oklahoma                58 38.2,     6 Oklahoma State          23 33.6
 65% 176 Idaho                   38 38.7,   198 Texas State - San Marc  31 36.4
 65% 104 Tennessee - Chattanoog  50 33.2,   111 Fordham                 20 30.9
 65%  95 Western Illinois        24 27.2,   174 Dayton                   7 24.0
 65%  87 Sam Houston State       42 33.7,    72 Southern Utah           39 30.4
 65%  76 Indiana                 54 41.7,   117 Purdue                  36 38.8
 65%  29 Texas Tech              48 39.7,    83 Texas                   45 37.6
 64%  48 Brigham Young           51 29.4,    70 Utah State              28 28.1
 64%  17 Houston                 52 30.4,    10 Navy                    31 28.0
 57%  11 Florida State           27 22.5,    42 Florida                  2 21.9
 56%   8 Mississippi             38 31.4,    22 Mississippi State       27 30.8

 50%  26 Iowa                    28 33.2,    53 Nebraska                20 33.2
 48% 158 Georgia State           31 27.6,   132 Troy State              21 27.8
 45% 245 Alabama A&M             38 24.4,   241 Texas Southern           7 24.8
 41%  12 Ohio State              42 24.0,    13 Michigan                13 25.0
 39% 119 Maryland                46 31.3,   127 Rutgers                 41 32.3
 37% 212 Texas - El Paso         20 24.0,   220 North Texas             17 25.3
 36% 192 Wyoming                 35 29.4,   151 Nevada - Las Vegas      28 31.1
 36%  90 Syracuse                20 21.1,    84 Boston College          17 23.1
 36%  45 Georgia                 13 25.1,    52 Georgia Tech             7 26.6
 35%  79 Southern Mississippi    58 30.9,    91 Louisiana Tech          24 34.1
 35%  69 Cincinnati              19 35.5,    74 East Carolina           16 37.9
 34%  93 Montana                 24 22.9,    56 South Dakota State      17 26.7
 34%  16 Texas Christian         28 41.1,     3 Baylor                  21 45.2
 33% 102 The Citadel             41 26.1,    96 Coastal Carolina        38 33.2
 23%  68 Miami - Florida         29 24.4,    31 Pittsburgh              24 33.5
 23%  61 Western Michigan        35 26.3,    38 Toledo                  30 35.0
 14% 164 Massachusetts           31 23.5,   131 Buffalo                 26 33.3
 13% 182 Colgate                 27 20.5,   128 New Hampshire           20 33.4
 13% 143 New Mexico              47 21.0,    59 Air Force               35 33.4
 10% 120 Ohio                    26 21.1,    47 Northern Illinois       21 37.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                6 0.61  35 1.09   6 0.89  16 0.86  10 1.08   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  73  53  54.0 0.98

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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