prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 72 Arkansas State 55 48.2, 202 Texas State - San Marc 17 24.5
92% 66 Appalachian State 34 41.0, 194 South Alabama 27 19.2
90% 2 Alabama 29 27.7, 63 Florida 15 10.5
89% 29 Illinois State 36 38.6, 99 Western Illinois 19 21.7
89% 27 North Dakota State 37 34.7, 83 Montana 6 19.3
85% 11 Houston 24 34.0, 36 Temple 13 23.4
81% 37 Northern Iowa 29 31.6, 89 Portland State 17 22.7
77% 65 Jacksonville State 41 28.7, 87 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 19.9
70% 47 San Diego State 27 30.3, 74 Air Force 24 22.0
68% 119 Alcorn State 49 39.1, 143 Grambling 21 32.3
68% 14 Bowling Green 34 41.4, 57 Northern Illinois 14 33.1
67% 45 Western Kentucky 45 42.9, 54 Southern Mississippi 28 36.4
66% 16 Michigan State 16 29.3, 30 Iowa 13 24.4
65% 222 Northeast Louisiana 42 34.7, 199 New Mexico State 35 31.4
65% 8 Stanford 41 31.4, 21 Southern California 22 27.5
64% 134 Troy State 41 29.9, 168 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 28.4
59% 5 Clemson 45 36.5, 4 North Carolina 37 35.7
56% 112 Charleston Southern 14 27.0, 93 The Citadel 6 26.5
56% 82 Sam Houston State 34 26.7, 118 McNeese State 29 26.2
45% 95 Richmond 48 32.9, 71 William & Mary 13 33.4
34% 70 Kansas State 24 26.0, 19 West Virginia 23 30.9
9% 167 Colgate 44 25.7, 58 James Madison 38 46.4
7% 149 Georgia State 34 17.1, 55 Georgia Southern 7 39.8
6% 80 Texas 23 23.8, 3 Baylor 17 48.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.33 9 1.34 1 1.31 5 1.15 5 0.43 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 24 19 18.0 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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