prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 38 Virginia Tech 55 42.0, 110 Tulsa 52 26.5
87% 16 Washington 44 33.9, 68 Southern Mississippi 31 20.6
86% 61 Arizona 45 41.0, 136 New Mexico 37 30.9
86% 19 North Dakota State 33 34.9, 55 Richmond 7 23.2
82% 73 Appalachian State 31 31.6, 108 Ohio 29 22.0
77% 26 Tennessee 45 27.8, 72 Northwestern 6 19.8
74% 2 Alabama 38 27.6, 12 Michigan State 0 19.7
73% 6 Stanford 45 31.5, 30 Iowa 16 22.8
72% 37 Boise State 55 35.2, 65 Northern Illinois 7 27.6
71% 42 Georgia 24 25.3, 76 Penn State 17 17.6
67% 113 San Jose State 27 30.1, 133 Georgia State 16 24.0
67% 90 Marshall 16 24.8, 109 Connecticut 10 18.2
67% 56 Western Michigan 45 34.5, 105 Middle Tennessee State 31 28.0
67% 52 Jacksonville State 62 42.3, 69 Sam Houston State 10 35.0
67% 46 California 55 37.6, 75 Air Force 36 32.0
67% 27 Navy 44 29.8, 47 Pittsburgh 28 23.5
67% 22 Arkansas 45 35.8, 58 Kansas State 23 29.1
67% 7 Ohio State 44 32.6, 10 Notre Dame 28 27.1
66% 24 West Virginia 43 33.2, 45 Arizona State 42 29.1
66% 23 Louisiana State 56 42.8, 33 Texas Tech 27 37.9
66% 21 Michigan 41 22.4, 60 Florida 7 16.8
65% 78 Minnesota 21 26.7, 91 Central Michigan 14 23.6
65% 62 Duke 44 40.2, 70 Indiana 41 37.4
65% 57 San Diego State 42 31.5, 67 Cincinnati 7 28.9
65% 25 Mississippi State 51 34.3, 31 North Carolina State 28 30.4
64% 51 Washington State 20 33.3, 59 Miami - Florida 14 31.6
64% 36 Utah 35 27.2, 44 Brigham Young 28 25.4
64% 11 Texas Christian 47 42.1, 17 Oregon 41 40.3
64% 9 Mississippi 48 36.8, 14 Oklahoma State 20 35.0
64% 8 Baylor 49 42.3, 3 North Carolina 38 40.1
55% 40 Western Kentucky 45 35.7, 28 South Florida 35 35.1
52% 32 Toledo 32 26.1, 35 Temple 17 25.9
36% 126 Nevada - Reno 28 27.6, 115 Colorado State 23 29.7
36% 97 Louisiana Tech 47 35.3, 74 Arkansas State 28 37.1
35% 49 Auburn 31 32.1, 18 Memphis 10 35.3
35% 48 Louisville 27 26.2, 41 Texas A&M 21 28.2
35% 39 Wisconsin 23 22.4, 20 Southern California 21 25.2
34% 142 North Carolina A&T 41 22.0, 116 Alcorn State 34 26.7
33% 53 Nebraska 37 30.1, 29 California - Los Angel 29 35.3
33% 13 Houston 38 25.7, 5 Florida State 24 32.0
30% 4 Clemson 37 30.0, 1 Oklahoma 17 37.3
29% 82 Georgia Southern 58 29.7, 15 Bowling Green 27 39.3
19% 122 Akron 23 19.9, 77 Utah State 21 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.88 29 1.05 6 1.14 6 0.98 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 43 32 29.6 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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