10 Jan 2017: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2016 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5  14  9.1  7.5 Alabama                 
  2  5  11  8.9  7.0 Ohio State              
  3  6  11  9.1  6.6 Clemson                 
  4 10  11  9.0  6.7 Washington              
  5  8  10  8.9  6.7 Michigan                
  6  9  10  9.6  5.9 Oklahoma                
  7  8   9  8.3  6.9 Louisiana State         
  8 18   9  9.0  6.2 Florida State           
  9 15   9  8.8  6.3 Southern California     
 10 14   8  8.2  6.7 Auburn                  
 11 10   8  8.1  6.8 Wisconsin               
 12 12   8  9.0  5.8 Oklahoma State          
 13 11   8  9.1  5.7 Louisville              
 14 24   8  8.9  5.8 Penn State              
 15 14   7  8.3  6.3 Miami - Florida         
 16 37   7  8.7  5.9 Washington State        
 17 29   7  8.5  6.1 Virginia Tech           
 18 24   7  8.4  6.1 West Virginia           
 19 35   7  8.7  5.8 North Carolina          
 20 25   7  7.9  6.6 Stanford                
 21 20   7  8.5  6.0 Texas A&M               
 22 22   6  8.4  6.1 Kansas State            
 23 34   7  9.0  5.4 Tennessee               
 24 44   7  9.1  5.3 Western Kentucky        
 25 26   6  7.6  6.8 Florida                 
 26 28   6  8.3  6.1 Texas Christian         
 27 42   7  9.4  5.1 Pittsburgh              
 28 45   6  8.7  5.6 Western Michigan        
 29 17   6  8.4  5.9 Houston                 
 30 40   6  8.6  5.7 Notre Dame              
 31 50   6  8.1  6.1 Colorado                
 32 19   6  8.2  6.1 Utah                    
 33 26   6  8.7  5.6 Baylor                  
 34 42   6  8.9  5.4 Mississippi             
 35 22   6  8.0  6.2 Brigham Young           
 36 40   5  8.3  5.8 Georgia Tech            
 37 25   5  7.8  6.3 Iowa                    
 38 37   5  8.1  6.0 San Diego State         
 39 35   5  8.0  6.1 North Carolina State    
 40 55   5  8.5  5.5 Arkansas                
 41 15   5  8.3  5.7 Boise State             
 42 40   5  7.8  6.2 Northwestern            
 43 44   5  9.1  5.0 South Florida           
 44 48   5  8.6  5.4 Memphis                 
 45 58   5  8.0  6.0 Georgia                 
 46 40   5  8.5  5.5 Navy                    
 47 36   5  7.9  6.1 Temple                  
 48 39   4  7.9  6.0 Minnesota               
 49 29   5  8.1  5.8 Texas                   
 50 55   5  9.1  4.8 Tulsa                   
 51 39   5  8.4  5.5 Mississippi State       
 52 59   4  8.0  5.8 Michigan State          
 53 38   5  8.6  5.3 Toledo                  
 54 43   5  8.9  4.9 Louisiana Tech          
 55 49   4  7.9  5.9 California - Los Angeles
 56 37   5  9.6  4.3 Texas Tech              
 57 34   4  8.0  5.8 Nebraska                
 58 62   4  9.1  4.6 Oregon                  
 59 54   4  9.3  4.3 California              
 60 55   4  8.0  5.6 Iowa State              
 61 43   3  8.2  5.4 Air Force               
 62 40   3  8.3  5.3 Kentucky                
 63 58   3  7.9  5.7 Duke                    
 64 27   3  7.6  6.0 Appalachian State       
 65 46   3  7.4  6.1 Vanderbilt              
 66 47   3  8.6  4.9 Arizona State           
 67 59   3  8.2  5.3 Indiana                 
 68 56   3  8.4  5.1 Colorado State          
 69 47   2  7.7  5.5 Arkansas State          
 70 49   2  7.9  5.3 Missouri                
 71 64   2  7.1  6.1 Wake Forest             
 72 58   2  7.4  5.7 South Carolina          
 73 61   2  7.8  5.3 Troy State              
 74 55   2  7.8  5.3 Oregon State            
 75 51   1  7.7  5.4 Central Florida         
 76 67   1  8.2  4.8 Wyoming                 
 77 57   1  7.0  6.0 Boston College          
 78 60   1  8.2  4.8 New Mexico              
 79 47   1  7.9  5.1 Northern Illinois       
 80 68   1  7.7  5.3 Virginia                
 81 62   1  8.2  4.8 Arizona                 
 82 38   1  7.6  5.3 Georgia Southern        
 83 51   1  7.7  5.2 Maryland                
 84 46   1  7.5  5.4 Utah State              
 85 51   1  8.5  4.3 Middle Tennessee State  
 86 70   1  8.0  4.7 Syracuse                
 87 41   0  7.2  5.6 Ohio                    
 88 48   0  7.9  4.8 Southern Mississippi    
 89 49   0  7.2  5.5 Army                    
 90 57   0  7.1  5.5 Cincinnati              
 91 45   0  7.8  4.8 Old Dominion            
 92 54   0  7.4  5.2 Central Michigan        
 93 68   0  7.3  5.3 Illinois                
 94 70   0  8.0  4.5 Idaho                   
 95 45   0  7.2  5.3 Texas - San Antonio     
 96 51   0  7.8  4.7 East Carolina           
 97 49   0  7.7  4.7 Southern Methodist      
 98 48   0  7.2  5.2 Nevada - Reno           
 99 65   0  7.8  4.5 Purdue                  
100 61   0  7.1  5.3 Miami - Ohio            
101 51   0  7.5  4.9 Ball State              
102 41   0  7.3  5.0 South Alabama           
103 60   0  7.6  4.7 Eastern Michigan        
104 53   0  7.1  5.2 Tulane                  
105 46  -1  7.5  4.7 Akron                   
106 44  -1  7.0  5.2 Louisiana - Lafayette   
107 47  -1  7.8  4.2 Nevada - Las Vegas      
108 45  -1  7.6  4.5 Bowling Green           
109 38  -1  7.1  5.0 San Jose State          
110 39  -1  7.3  4.8 Marshall                
111 54  -1  7.1  5.0 Kansas                  
112 43  -1  7.4  4.6 Hawaii                  
113 40  -1  6.9  5.1 Georgia State           
114 48  -1  7.5  4.4 Massachusetts           
115 41  -2  7.0  4.9 Rutgers                 
116 37  -2  6.7  5.3 Kent State              
117 38  -2  7.0  4.8 North Texas             
118 36  -2  6.2  5.6 Connecticut             
119 32  -2  7.2  4.5 Rice                    
120 29  -3  7.2  4.4 Florida Atlantic        
121 38  -3  7.5  4.0 New Mexico State        
122 29  -3  6.7  4.9 Fresno State            
123 35  -3  6.8  4.7 Florida International   
124 33  -3  6.8  4.7 Buffalo                 
125 35  -3  7.2  4.2 Northeast Louisiana     
126 29  -4  7.1  4.2 Texas - El Paso         
127 24  -4  7.0  4.3 North Carolina - Charlot
128 20  -6  6.7  4.1 Texas State - San Marcos

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 13   8  9.4  5.5 James Madison           
  2 28   5  7.6  6.6 North Dakota State      
  3 30   5  8.8  5.1 Eastern Washington      
  4 40   4  7.7  6.0 Northern Iowa           
  5 36   4  8.1  5.6 South Dakota State      
  6 34   4  7.8  5.8 Jacksonville State      
  7 39   3  7.7  6.0 Youngstown State        
  8 35   3  8.0  5.6 New Hampshire           
  9 53   3  8.8  4.6 Sam Houston State       
 10 34   3  7.9  5.5 Richmond                
 11 39   3  8.3  5.2 Charleston Southern     
 12 37   3  7.8  5.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 13 47   2  6.9  6.4 Villanova               
 14 37   2  8.5  4.8 Lehigh                  
 15 51   2  8.0  5.3 Coastal Carolina        
 16 46   2  7.7  5.6 Princeton               
 17 46   2  7.5  5.7 Illinois State          
 18 49   1  7.9  5.1 Montana                 
 19 33   1  8.3  4.6 Fordham                 
 20 39   1  7.5  5.3 Colgate                 
 21 71   1  7.4  5.5 San Diego               
 22 42   1  7.3  5.6 William & Mary          
 23 34   1  7.5  5.3 The Citadel             
 24 64   1  7.7  5.2 Grambling               
 25 39   1  7.3  5.5 North Dakota            
 26 25   1  7.8  5.0 Southern Utah           
 27 40   1  8.0  4.7 California Poly         
 28 37   1  7.9  4.9 Southern Illinois       
 29 34   0  7.0  5.8 Wofford                 
 30 74   0  7.3  5.4 Central Arkansas        
 31 28   0  7.9  4.8 Samford                 
 32 36   0  7.9  4.8 South Dakota            
 33 37   0  7.7  5.0 Western Illinois        
 34 74   0  7.1  5.5 Harvard                 
 35 24   0  7.1  5.5 Albany                  
 36 36   0  7.3  5.3 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 37 59   0  7.4  5.2 North Carolina A&T      
 38 57   0  6.7  5.8 Dartmouth               
 39 60   0  7.1  5.4 Pennsylvania            
 40 36   0  7.6  4.9 Northern Arizona        
 41 45   0  7.4  5.1 Liberty                 
 42 63   0  7.5  5.0 Duquesne                
 43 18   0  7.8  4.6 Portland State          
 44 41   0  7.4  5.0 Tennessee - Martin      
 45 35   0  7.1  5.3 Maine                   
 46 30   0  7.4  4.9 Indiana State           
 47 39   0  6.9  5.5 Delaware                
 48 45   0  7.1  5.2 Towson                  
 49 34   0  7.3  5.0 Furman                  
 50 70  -1  7.8  4.3 Southern                
 51 30  -1  7.3  4.9 Eastern Illinois        
 52 78  -1  7.1  5.1 McNeese State           
 53 82  -1  7.9  4.2 Kennesaw State          
 54 99  -1  6.9  5.2 Dayton                  
 55 51  -1  7.2  5.0 Montana State           
 56 30  -1  7.2  5.0 Weber State             
 57 48  -1  7.2  4.9 Bryant                  
 58 41  -1  6.2  5.9 Stony Brook             
 59 36  -1  7.3  4.7 Tennessee Tech          
 60 50  -2  7.2  4.7 Mercer                  
 61 73  -2  7.2  4.7 Alcorn State            
 62 26  -2  6.6  5.3 Southeast Missouri State
 63 53  -2  7.1  4.8 Holy Cross              
 64 36  -2  7.5  4.4 Northern Colorado       
 65 68  -2  6.4  5.5 South Carolina State    
 66 66  -2  6.9  4.9 Southeast Louisiana     
 67 49  -2  7.3  4.5 Tennessee State         
 68 67  -2  6.7  5.2 North Carolina Central  
 69 65  -2  6.9  4.9 Sacred Heart            
 70 39  -2  7.2  4.6 Monmouth                
 71 42  -2  6.4  5.4 Bucknell                
 72 58  -2  7.0  4.7 Bethune - Cookman       
 73 51  -3  7.0  4.7 Yale                    
 74 16  -3  7.4  4.3 Western Carolina        
 75 41  -3  6.8  4.9 Eastern Kentucky        
 76 51  -2  6.4  5.3 Gardner - Webb          
 77 78  -3  7.4  4.2 Prairie View            
 78 51  -3  6.8  4.8 Brown                   
 79 23  -3  7.0  4.5 California - Davis      
 80 29  -3  6.9  4.6 Lafayette               
 81 26  -3  7.3  4.1 Murray State            
 82 59  -4  7.4  3.9 Stephen F. Austin       
 83 31  -4  6.9  4.4 Cornell                 
 84 33  -4  6.6  4.8 Wagner                  
 85 62  -4  7.0  4.3 Nicholls State          
 86 31  -4  6.6  4.7 Virginia Military       
 87 **  -4  6.6  4.8 Drake                   
 88 36  -4  6.2  5.2 Columbia                
 89 33  -4  7.0  4.3 Missouri State          
 90 43  -4  6.0  5.4 Georgetown              
 91 83  -4  7.2  4.0 Jacksonville            
 92 25  -4  6.8  4.5 Rhode Island            
 93 33  -4  6.6  4.6 Central Connecticut     
 94 50  -4  6.2  5.0 Hampton                 
 95 61  -5  6.6  4.5 Lamar                   
 96 78  -5  6.6  4.5 Marist                  
 97 23  -5  6.9  4.0 Sacramento State        
 98 15  -5  7.1  3.9 Idaho State             
 99 28  -5  5.9  5.1 Elon                    
100 68  -6  7.0  3.8 Abilene Christian       
101 28  -6  5.9  5.0 Norfolk State           
102 75  -6  7.0  3.6 Morehead State          
103 67  -6  6.2  4.6 Alabama State           
104 42  -6  6.5  4.2 Northwestern State      
105 23  -6  6.4  4.3 Morgan State            
106 77  -6  6.1  4.5 Campbell                
107 21  -7  6.3  4.3 Florida A&M             
108 23  -6  5.5  5.1 Presbyterian            
109 29  -6  5.5  5.2 Robert Morris           
110 66  -7  6.2  4.2 Butler                  
111 49  -7  6.5  3.9 Incarnate Word          
112 56  -7  6.1  4.4 Texas Southern          
113 40  -7  6.5  3.8 Alabama A&M             
114 11  -7  6.8  3.5 Austin Peay             
115 66  -7  6.2  4.2 Stetson                 
116 11  -8  6.4  3.8 Howard                  
117 43  -8  5.7  4.5 Jackson State           
118 17  -8  5.6  4.7 East Tennessee State    
119 13  -8  6.0  4.0 Savannah State          
120 45  -9  6.1  3.9 Valparaiso              
121 32  -9  5.9  4.0 Houston Baptist         
122  8  -9  5.9  3.8 Delaware State          
123 20 -12  5.0  4.0 Davidson                
124  7 -13  5.5  3.3 Mississippi Valley State
125  8 -13  5.4  3.3 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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