10 Jan 2017: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2016 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  4  15  9.2  7.6 Alabama                  128 57   0  7.5  5.0 Duquesne                
  2  5  13  9.3  6.9 Clemson                  129 48   0  7.8  4.7 Southern Mississippi    
  3 10  12  9.2  6.8 Washington               130 71   0  7.6  4.9 Eastern Michigan        
  4  6  11  8.7  7.0 Ohio State               131 59   0  7.5  5.0 North Carolina A&T      
  5  9  11  8.9  6.7 Michigan                 132 42   0  7.3  5.1 Liberty                 
  6  7  11  9.7  5.9 Oklahoma                 133 52   0  7.7  4.7 Southern Methodist      
  7  8  11  9.6  6.0 James Madison            134 36   0  7.5  4.9 Northern Arizona        
  8  8  10  8.3  7.1 Louisiana State          135 54   0  6.9  5.6 Cincinnati              
  9 18  10  9.1  6.3 Southern California      136 31   0  7.2  5.2 Maine                   
 10  9  10  9.2  6.2 Florida State            137 33   0  7.0  5.5 Delaware                
 11 26  10  9.5  5.8 Penn State               138 42   0  7.3  5.1 Tennessee - Martin      
 12  9   9  9.0  6.2 Oklahoma State           139 60   0  7.2  5.2 Illinois                
 13 10   9  8.3  6.8 Wisconsin                140 47   0  7.2  5.2 Nevada - Reno           
 14 13   9  8.5  6.5 Miami - Florida          141 50   0  7.0  5.4 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 15 24   8  8.0  6.9 Auburn                   142 69   0  6.9  5.5 Pennsylvania            
 16 18   8  8.6  6.2 Kansas State             143 17   0  7.9  4.5 Portland State          
 17 44   8  9.2  5.5 Western Kentucky         144 74   0  8.0  4.4 Kennesaw State          
 18 25   7  8.7  6.0 Virginia Tech            145 33   0  7.4  5.0 Furman                  
 19 41   7  8.7  6.0 Washington State         146 52   0  7.5  4.9 Ball State              
 20 22   7  9.0  5.6 Louisville               147 64   0  7.9  4.5 Purdue                  
 21 32   7  7.7  6.9 Florida                  148 43   0  7.7  4.6 East Carolina           
 22 45   7  9.8  4.8 Pittsburgh               149 30   0  7.3  5.0 Indiana State           
 23 20   7  8.4  6.1 West Virginia            150 67   0  7.2  5.1 Kansas                  
 24 17   6  7.6  6.8 North Dakota State       151 67   0  7.9  4.4 Southern                
 25 35   6  8.6  5.8 North Carolina           152 50   0  7.1  5.2 Tulane                  
 26 25   7  9.3  5.2 Tennessee                153 42   0  7.3  5.0 Central Michigan        
 27 46   6  8.7  5.7 Western Michigan         154 46  -1  7.1  5.1 Towson                  
 28 65   6  9.3  5.1 Tulsa                    155 68  -1  6.6  5.7 Dartmouth               
 29 57   6  8.1  6.2 Colorado                 156 41  -1  7.3  4.9 South Alabama           
 30 29   6  8.5  5.8 Texas A&M                157 35  -1  7.4  4.8 Tennessee Tech          
 31 16   6  7.8  6.5 Stanford                 158 99  -1  7.1  5.1 Dayton                  
 32 22   6  8.7  5.5 Eastern Washington       159 95  -1  6.9  5.3 Harvard                 
 33 39   6  8.6  5.7 Notre Dame               160 47  -1  7.5  4.6 Hawaii                  
 34 45   6  8.0  6.2 Northwestern             161 31  -1  7.2  4.9 Eastern Illinois        
 35 38   6  8.3  5.9 San Diego State          162 35  -1  6.3  5.9 Stony Brook             
 36 34   5  7.9  6.3 North Carolina State     163 81  -1  7.2  4.9 McNeese State           
 37 18   6  8.2  6.0 Utah                     164 31  -1  7.2  4.9 Weber State             
 38 16   5  7.8  6.4 Brigham Young            165 38  -1  7.4  4.6 Akron                   
 39 43   5  8.3  5.8 Georgia Tech             166 35  -1  7.6  4.5 Northern Colorado       
 40 44   5  8.0  6.2 Minnesota                167 42  -1  7.9  4.1 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 41 37   5  7.9  6.2 Temple                   168 55  -1  7.0  5.1 Montana State           
 42 19   5  8.2  5.9 Houston                  169 33  -1  7.1  4.9 San Jose State          
 43 34   5  7.9  6.1 Texas Christian          170 52  -1  7.2  4.8 Bryant                  
 44 21   5  7.7  6.4 Iowa                     171 50  -1  7.6  4.3 Massachusetts           
 45 44   5  9.4  4.7 South Florida            172 48  -2  7.2  4.7 Mercer                  
 46 48   5  8.0  5.9 Georgia                  173 60  -2  7.0  4.9 Southeast Louisiana     
 47 53   5  9.3  4.7 Louisiana Tech           174 34  -2  7.4  4.4 Bowling Green           
 48 40   5  8.8  5.2 Mississippi              175 48  -2  7.1  4.7 North Texas             
 49 27   4  8.0  5.9 Youngstown State         176 70  -2  6.6  5.3 North Carolina Central  
 50 36   5  8.7  5.2 Navy                     177 37  -2  6.8  5.0 Georgia State           
 51 64   4  8.5  5.4 Arkansas                 178 35  -2  6.5  5.4 Bucknell                
 52 28   4  8.1  5.8 Texas                    179 30  -2  6.5  5.4 Southeast Missouri State
 53 48   4  8.7  5.2 Memphis                  180 37  -2  6.7  5.2 Kent State              
 54 30   4  8.3  5.6 Baylor                   181 65  -2  6.4  5.5 South Carolina State    
 55 26   4  8.2  5.6 New Hampshire            182 46  -2  7.4  4.4 Tennessee State         
 56 70   4  8.9  4.9 Colorado State           183 47  -2  6.5  5.3 Gardner - Webb          
 57 59   4  8.1  5.6 Iowa State               184 81  -2  7.1  4.6 Alcorn State            
 58 38   4  9.5  4.3 Texas Tech               185 57  -2  7.0  4.7 Holy Cross              
 59 48   4  7.8  5.9 California - Los Angeles 186 37  -2  7.2  4.5 Monmouth                
 60 43   4  8.4  5.4 Kentucky                 187 30  -2  7.0  4.7 Marshall                
 61 57   4  8.0  5.8 Michigan State           188 64  -2  6.9  4.8 Sacred Heart            
 62 18   4  8.0  5.7 Boise State              189 34  -3  7.2  4.5 Rice                    
 63 56   4  7.7  6.0 Vanderbilt               190 35  -3  6.8  4.9 Rutgers                 
 64 18   4  8.3  5.4 Mississippi State        191 43  -3  7.5  4.1 New Mexico State        
 65 36   4  8.6  5.1 Toledo                   192 26  -3  6.8  4.9 Wagner                  
 66 42   4  8.4  5.3 Air Force                193 57  -3  7.2  4.4 Nicholls State          
 67 43   3  7.6  6.0 Northern Iowa            194 62  -3  6.8  4.8 Bethune - Cookman       
 68 31   3  7.5  6.1 Appalachian State        195 25  -3  7.0  4.6 Lafayette               
 69 50   4  9.3  4.3 California               196 79  -3  7.3  4.2 Prairie View            
 70 60   4  9.0  4.6 Oregon                   197 15  -3  7.4  4.1 Western Carolina        
 71 40   3  8.1  5.5 South Dakota State       198 37  -3  6.9  4.7 Florida International   
 72 38   3  7.7  5.8 Jacksonville State       199 22  -3  7.0  4.5 California - Davis      
 73 50   3  7.6  5.9 Arkansas State           200 26  -3  7.3  4.2 Florida Atlantic        
 74 59   3  7.8  5.7 Duke                     201 33  -3  7.3  4.2 Texas - El Paso         
 75 49   3  8.9  4.5 Sam Houston State        202 37  -3  7.3  4.1 Northeast Louisiana     
 76 34   3  7.7  5.8 Nebraska                 203 29  -3  7.1  4.3 Cornell                 
 77 54   3  7.9  5.5 Indiana                  204 26  -3  6.5  5.0 Fresno State            
 78 44   3  7.7  5.8 Princeton                205 26  -3  6.1  5.5 Connecticut             
 79 38   3  8.1  5.3 Charleston Southern      206 28  -3  7.1  4.4 North Carolina - Charlot
 80 47   3  6.9  6.5 Villanova                207 30  -3  7.1  4.3 Missouri State          
 81 35   3  8.6  4.9 Lehigh                   208 28  -4  7.3  4.1 Murray State            
 82 38   3  7.8  5.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga  209 59  -3  6.9  4.5 Yale                    
 83 72   3  8.7  4.7 Wyoming                  210 98  -4  6.7  4.7 Drake                   
 84 38   2  7.7  5.6 Richmond                 211 49  -4  6.6  4.8 Eastern Kentucky        
 85 69   2  7.3  6.1 Wake Forest              212 30  -4  6.5  4.9 Virginia Military       
 86 56   2  7.9  5.4 Oregon State             213 38  -4  6.3  5.1 Columbia                
 87 52   2  7.8  5.5 Central Florida          214 62  -4  7.4  3.8 Stephen F. Austin       
 88 39   2  8.5  4.8 Arizona State            215 60  -4  6.5  4.8 Brown                   
 89 56   2  7.9  5.3 Coastal Carolina         216 26  -4  6.6  4.7 Buffalo                 
 90 64   2  8.3  4.8 New Mexico               217 25  -4  6.8  4.4 Rhode Island            
 91 60   2  7.6  5.6 San Diego                218 43  -4  5.9  5.5 Georgetown              
 92 56   2  7.9  5.2 Troy State               219 31  -4  6.7  4.5 Central Connecticut     
 93 49   2  8.0  5.1 Missouri                 220 83  -5  7.3  3.8 Jacksonville            
 94 90   2  8.4  4.7 Idaho                    221 48  -5  6.1  5.0 Hampton                 
 95 35   1  7.6  5.4 Colgate                  222 15  -5  7.1  3.8 Idaho State             
 96 43   1  7.2  5.9 Boston College           223 23  -5  7.0  3.9 Sacramento State        
 97 58   1  7.5  5.5 Grambling                224 78  -5  6.6  4.3 Marist                  
 98 44   1  7.9  5.1 Northern Illinois        225 56  -5  6.3  4.6 Lamar                   
 99 33   1  7.0  6.0 Wofford                  226 68  -6  6.9  3.8 Abilene Christian       
100 31   1  8.3  4.7 Fordham                  227 27  -6  5.9  5.0 Elon                    
101 56   1  7.4  5.6 South Carolina           228 75  -6  7.1  3.6 Morehead State          
102 54   1  7.4  5.6 Illinois State           229 30  -6  5.9  5.0 Norfolk State           
103 56   1  7.9  5.1 Montana                  230 67  -6  6.2  4.6 Alabama State           
104 39   1  7.4  5.5 North Dakota             231 40  -6  6.3  4.2 Northwestern State      
105 62   1  7.6  5.3 Virginia                 232 17  -7  6.5  4.0 Texas State - San Marcos
106 51   1  7.9  5.0 Old Dominion             233 21  -7  6.3  4.3 Florida A&M             
107 25   1  7.9  5.0 Southern Utah            234 22  -7  6.4  4.2 Morgan State            
108 58   1  7.2  5.6 Texas - San Antonio      235 27  -6  5.5  5.2 Robert Morris           
109 67   1  7.3  5.5 Central Arkansas         236 62  -7  6.3  4.2 Stetson                 
110 42   1  7.0  5.8 Ohio                     237 12  -7  7.0  3.4 Austin Peay             
111 34   1  7.5  5.3 The Citadel              238 54  -7  6.1  4.4 Texas Southern          
112 18   1  7.2  5.6 Albany                   239 80  -7  6.1  4.4 Campbell                
113 44   0  7.2  5.6 William & Mary           240 40  -7  6.6  3.8 Alabama A&M             
114 34   1  8.0  4.8 South Dakota             241 26  -7  5.5  5.1 Presbyterian            
115 55   0  7.3  5.5 Army                     242 50  -7  6.6  3.8 Incarnate Word          
116 55   0  8.0  4.7 Arizona                  243 66  -8  6.1  4.2 Butler                  
117 34   0  7.5  5.2 Georgia Southern         244 17  -7  5.6  4.7 East Tennessee State    
118 55   0  7.6  5.1 Maryland                 245 12  -8  6.4  3.8 Howard                  
119 38   0  7.8  5.0 Southern Illinois        246 32  -8  6.0  4.2 Houston Baptist         
120 65   0  8.0  4.7 Syracuse                 247 46  -8  6.1  4.0 Valparaiso              
121 43   0  8.0  4.7 California Poly          248 17  -8  6.0  4.1 Savannah State          
122 39   0  7.4  5.3 Utah State               249 45  -8  5.6  4.6 Jackson State           
123 29   0  7.9  4.8 Samford                  250  8 -10  6.0  3.8 Delaware State          
124 81   0  7.1  5.5 Miami - Ohio             251  8 -13  5.5  3.2 Mississippi Valley State
125 32   0  7.3  5.3 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 252 21 -12  4.8  4.0 Davidson                
126 46   0  8.7  3.9 Middle Tennessee State   253  8 -14  5.3  3.3 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
127 38   0  7.7  4.9 Western Illinois        

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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