prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 60 Georgia Southern 54 65.5, 250 Savannah State 0 19.4
80% 46 Illinois State 50 66.5, 251 Valparaiso 13 18.3
78% 4 Baylor 55 67.9, 201 Northwestern State 7 29.3
77% 163 Central Arkansas 56 58.0, 254 Houston Baptist 13 17.0
77% 12 Oregon 53 63.8, 213 California - Davis 28 26.6
75% 33 Louisville 70 57.2, 227 North Carolina - Charl 14 21.2
73% 20 Michigan 63 49.4, 175 Hawaii 3 17.1
72% 68 James Madison 80 61.8, 231 Morehead State 7 33.1
72% 59 Miami - Florida 70 52.0, 240 Florida A&M 3 19.4
71% 36 Iowa 45 50.0, 194 Miami - Ohio 21 18.5
71% 18 Michigan State 28 48.5, 190 Furman 13 17.0
70% 40 Texas Tech 69 62.8, 189 Stephen F. Austin 17 39.8
70% 39 Nebraska 43 55.9, 164 Fresno State 10 31.1
70% 23 Oklahoma State 61 52.0, 204 Southeast Louisiana 7 24.1
69% 211 Georgetown 38 46.3, 253 Davidson 14 20.0
69% 45 Florida 24 45.6, 165 Massachusetts 7 17.8
69% 37 Western Kentucky 46 56.5, 160 Rice 14 33.9
68% 195 Tennessee State 44 47.8, 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 25.1
68% 161 Prairie View 29 54.2, 246 Texas Southern 25 33.5
68% 137 Troy State 57 46.6, 245 Austin Peay 17 23.1
68% 107 Maryland 52 50.3, 238 Howard 13 26.7
68% 104 Middle Tennessee State 55 48.9, 242 Alabama A&M 0 25.2
68% 71 Air Force 37 52.2, 221 Abilene Christian 21 28.7
67% 179 Delaware 56 40.6, 244 Delaware State 14 16.2
67% 67 Penn State 33 39.0, 199 Kent State 13 14.9
67% 32 Memphis 35 49.2, 154 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 29.8
67% 22 Boise State 45 50.4, 157 Louisiana - Lafayette 10 29.3
67% 5 Ohio State 77 52.1, 42 Bowling Green 10 31.7
66% 169 Sacred Heart 18 46.5, 247 Stetson 14 26.3
66% 95 Illinois 52 49.7, 198 Murray State 3 33.4
66% 53 Duke 49 46.1, 187 North Carolina Central 6 27.5
66% 41 Virginia Tech 36 44.0, 147 Liberty 13 26.2
66% 31 Arizona State 44 53.9, 123 Northern Arizona 13 36.0
66% 17 Washington 48 45.1, 106 Rutgers 13 25.1
65% 206 Eastern Michigan 61 46.4, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 33.0
65% 202 Texas - El Paso 38 44.2, 210 New Mexico State 22 37.5
65% 181 Stony Brook 13 31.1, 156 North Dakota 9 25.0
65% 153 Wofford 21 37.7, 218 Tennessee Tech 7 32.1
65% 148 Nevada - Las Vegas 63 44.7, 241 Jackson State 13 32.1
65% 134 Holy Cross 51 39.1, 215 Morgan State 24 29.3
65% 131 Akron 47 43.4, 220 Virginia Military 24 27.4
65% 118 Indiana State 41 45.3, 228 Butler 25 30.3
65% 113 Wake Forest 7 35.9, 166 Tulane 3 23.4
65% 99 Central Michigan 49 36.3, 223 Presbyterian 3 19.8
65% 97 Montana 41 42.1, 150 Saint Francis - Pennsy 31 31.8
65% 91 Youngstown State 45 38.7, 136 Duquesne 10 29.8
65% 89 Syracuse 33 40.2, 162 Colgate 7 33.0
65% 87 Coastal Carolina 38 49.4, 184 Lamar 14 35.7
65% 78 East Carolina 52 46.6, 144 Western Carolina 7 32.9
65% 77 Cincinnati 28 48.2, 142 Tennessee - Martin 7 37.7
65% 73 Indiana 34 47.9, 173 Florida International 13 36.7
65% 70 Minnesota 30 40.4, 128 Oregon State 23 28.2
65% 69 Utah State 45 41.6, 178 Weber State 6 25.4
65% 62 South Florida 56 39.0, 138 Towson 20 30.2
65% 58 San Diego State 31 37.9, 117 New Hampshire 0 31.0
65% 44 Northern Iowa 25 38.2, 92 Iowa State 20 29.3
65% 35 Navy 52 48.7, 109 Fordham 16 38.8
65% 34 Georgia Tech 17 32.3, 75 Boston College 14 26.0
65% 27 Utah 24 42.6, 103 Southern Utah 0 26.6
65% 26 West Virginia 26 34.3, 66 Missouri 11 23.9
65% 21 Tennessee 20 45.0, 76 Appalachian State 13 30.9
65% 15 Arkansas 21 47.9, 74 Louisiana Tech 20 32.7
65% 8 Texas Christian 59 44.3, 61 South Dakota State 41 30.2
65% 7 Stanford 26 44.9, 56 Kansas State 13 29.0
65% 3 Clemson 19 41.4, 25 Auburn 13 35.9
65% 1 Alabama 52 40.3, 16 Southern California 6 29.8
63% 108 The Citadel 24 39.5, 171 Mercer 23 34.8
63% 54 South Carolina 13 31.8, 110 Vanderbilt 10 26.6
63% 50 Pittsburgh 28 35.0, 102 Villanova 7 29.9
63% 43 Toledo 31 44.6, 90 Arkansas State 10 40.1
59% 152 Southern Methodist 34 39.7, 209 North Texas 21 36.6
59% 125 Connecticut 24 27.2, 168 Maine 21 23.3
59% 47 North Carolina State 48 40.7, 81 William & Mary 14 37.3
59% 38 Brigham Young 18 45.1, 49 Arizona 16 42.3
59% 29 Texas A&M 31 38.4, 30 California - Los Angel 24 35.1
57% 79 Richmond 37 39.2, 84 Virginia 20 36.6
56% 120 Nevada - Reno 30 41.2, 124 California Poly 27 39.2
54% 185 Texas - San Antonio 26 34.7, 225 Alabama State 13 33.1
53% 197 Kansas 55 32.5, 219 Rhode Island 6 31.5
51% 98 Western Illinois 38 36.4, 141 Eastern Illinois 21 35.9
50% 115 Tulsa 45 43.2, 111 San Jose State 10 43.1
49% 100 Colorado 44 36.5, 101 Colorado State 7 36.7
48% 139 New Mexico 48 34.8, 143 South Dakota 21 35.6
48% 122 Purdue 45 38.1, 132 Eastern Kentucky 24 38.7
48% 9 Florida State 45 35.4, 6 Mississippi 34 36.2
46% 24 Georgia 33 38.1, 11 North Carolina 24 39.4
44% 205 Bucknell 26 24.9, 207 Marist 10 27.2
43% 180 Central Florida 38 27.8, 174 South Carolina State 0 30.7
43% 28 Wisconsin 16 29.7, 10 Louisiana State 14 32.3
40% 203 Northeast Louisiana 38 36.6, 193 Southern 21 40.4
40% 196 Old Dominion 54 36.4, 191 Hampton 21 39.8
40% 159 Ball State 31 34.2, 151 Georgia State 21 37.8
40% 65 Western Michigan 22 31.7, 80 Northwestern 21 35.5
38% 200 Albany 22 33.0, 133 Buffalo 16 37.3
38% 82 Southern Mississippi 44 38.9, 88 Kentucky 35 42.9
38% 64 Texas 50 34.6, 13 Notre Dame 47 39.0
37% 170 Monmouth 23 37.0, 172 Lehigh 21 41.6
35% 249 East Tennessee State 20 31.8, 217 Kennesaw State 17 48.0
35% 236 Gardner - Webb 31 19.1, 208 Elon 6 30.3
35% 232 Lafayette 24 29.5, 216 Central Connecticut 10 35.8
35% 188 Texas State - San Marc 56 29.6, 119 Ohio 54 43.5
35% 183 Idaho 20 43.8, 126 Montana State 17 55.8
35% 177 Wyoming 40 30.8, 86 Northern Illinois 34 41.7
35% 155 Florida Atlantic 38 34.1, 94 Southern Illinois 30 43.7
35% 127 Eastern Washington 45 39.1, 52 Washington State 42 50.9
35% 19 Houston 33 37.3, 2 Oklahoma 23 43.8
34% 158 Army 28 23.2, 57 Temple 13 42.3
27% 176 South Alabama 21 22.9, 14 Mississippi State 20 54.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
20 0.99 76 1.19 11 1.22 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 81 69.6 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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