2016 Week 5 (22-24 Sep) Forecast for College Football Division IA & IAA

                                                                   ave score ROUNDED
rank projected winning team         rank projected losing team     TO NEAREST 3.5 POINTS
 --- ----------------------          --- ----------------------    ---------------------

90-100% chance of victory:

  13 Texas Christian           over  157 Southern Methodist         49.0 to 24.5
   1 Alabama                   over  180 Kent State                 52.5 to  3.5
  70 Cincinnati                over  179 Miami - Ohio               38.5 to 17.5
  69 Coastal Carolina          over  178 Furman                     35.0 to 14.0
 142 Eastern Illinois          over  249 Austin Peay                42.0 to  7.0
  87 Sam Houston State         over  253 Houston Baptist            56.0 to 17.5
 186 Prairie View              over  254 Mississippi Valley State   45.5 to 21.0
  59 Missouri                  over  246 Delaware State             45.5 to  3.5
  38 Mississippi State         over  174 Massachusetts              38.5 to 14.0
 100 New Hampshire             over  226 Rhode Island               38.5 to 17.5
  83 Temple                    over  227 North Carolina - Charlot   42.0 to 17.5
  92 Troy State                over  209 New Mexico State           49.0 to 24.5
  86 William & Mary            over  217 Elon                       35.0 to 10.5

80-90% chance of victory:

   6 Washington                over   63 Arizona                    38.5 to 24.5
   9 Baylor                    over   34 Oklahoma State             42.0 to 31.5
 160 Bryant                    over  221 Central Connecticut        31.5 to 17.5
 200 Bucknell                  over  214 Virginia Military          31.5 to 17.5
  80 Tulsa                     over  177 Fresno State               38.5 to 28.0
  49 Kansas State              over  230 Missouri State             45.5 to 14.0
  95 Villanova                 over  212 Lafayette                  31.5 to 14.0
  39 James Madison             over  175 Maine                      42.0 to 21.0
  32 Memphis                   over  113 Bowling Green              45.5 to 28.0
   5 Michigan                  over   66 Penn State                 38.5 to 21.0
  76 Minnesota                 over  139 Colorado State             35.0 to 21.0
 162 Southeast Missouri State  over  225 Murray State               35.0 to 24.5
 149 Nevada - Las Vegas        over  201 Idaho                      45.5 to 31.5
  19 Notre Dame                over   73 Duke                       42.0 to 28.0
  21 Boise State               over  130 Oregon State               38.5 to 24.5
  26 Iowa                      over  105 Rutgers                    35.0 to 24.5
 168 Bethune - Cookman         over  251 Savannah State             45.5 to 17.5
 153 South Alabama             over  239 Nicholls State             38.5 to 17.5
 195 Southeast Louisiana       over  219 Northwestern State         31.5 to 21.0
 155 Tennessee - Martin        over  206 Tennessee Tech             38.5 to 24.5
  78 Southern Mississippi      over  213 Texas - El Paso            42.0 to 24.5
  11 Houston                   over  190 Texas State - San Marcos   45.5 to 17.5
 158 Wofford                   over  245 East Tennessee State       35.0 to  7.0

70-80% chance of victory:

 166 Southern                  over  242 Alabama A&M                38.5 to 28.0
 235 Alabama State             over  244 Texas Southern             28.0 to 17.5
 156 Duquesne                  over  211 Kennesaw State             45.5 to 28.0
 143 McNeese State             over  237 Incarnate Word             31.5 to 10.5
  82 Illinois State            over  124 Indiana State              35.0 to 28.0
 215 Morgan State              over  243 Howard                     35.0 to 24.5
  12 North Carolina            over   51 Pittsburgh                 45.5 to 31.5
 114 Ohio                      over  222 Gardner - Webb             35.0 to 21.0
  20 Oregon                    over   58 Colorado                   42.0 to 31.5
 191 Jacksonville              over  248 Stetson                    42.0 to 24.5
 144 Tulane                    over  173 Louisiana - Lafayette      28.0 to 21.0
  43 Virginia Tech             over   64 East Carolina              35.0 to 24.5
  54 Western Kentucky          over   99 Vanderbilt                 31.5 to 24.5
  42 Western Michigan          over   74 Georgia Southern           35.0 to 24.5

60-70% chance of victory:

   8 Clemson                   over   24 Georgia Tech               31.5 to 28.0
 170 Wyoming                   over  189 Eastern Michigan           38.5 to 35.0
  31 Utah                      over   22 Southern California        24.5 to 21.0
 137 Albany                    over  159 Saint Francis - Pennsylv   31.5 to 24.5
  37 Arizona State             over   52 California                 52.5 to 45.5
 126 Arkansas State            over  171 Central Arkansas           31.5 to 28.0
  91 Boston College            over  234 Wagner                     35.0 to 10.5
  48 Harvard                   over  150 Brown                      42.0 to 24.5
 101 Army                      over  161 Buffalo                    31.5 to 24.5
 169 Weber State               over  203 California - Davis         31.5 to 24.5
   4 Stanford                  over   40 California - Los Angeles   28.0 to 24.5
  94 California Poly           over   90 Montana                    31.5 to 28.0
 125 Connecticut               over  106 Syracuse                   28.0 to 21.0
 131 Yale                      over  224 Cornell                    35.0 to 21.0
 216 Drake                     over  236 Morehead State             35.0 to 21.0
 204 South Carolina State      over  241 Florida A&M                24.5 to 17.5
 132 Ball State                over  192 Florida Atlantic           31.5 to 24.5
 164 Central Florida           over  199 Florida International      24.5 to 21.0
 107 Fordham                   over  115 Pennsylvania               45.5 to 38.5
 205 Georgetown                over  208 Columbia                   24.5 to 17.5
  81 Dartmouth                 over  119 Holy Cross                 31.5 to 24.5
 218 Sacramento State          over  233 Idaho State                31.5 to 28.0
  77 Indiana                   over  110 Wake Forest                31.5 to 24.5
 123 Iowa State                over  133 San Jose State             31.5 to 24.5
  60 South Carolina            over  111 Kentucky                   31.5 to 28.0
  57 Jacksonville State        over   98 Liberty                    31.5 to 28.0
   3 Louisville                over   75 Marshall                   45.5 to 31.5
  18 Michigan State            over   23 Wisconsin                  24.5 to 21.0
  56 Louisiana Tech            over   93 Middle Tennessee State     35.0 to 35.0
  10 Mississippi               over   41 Georgia                    35.0 to 24.5
 141 Charleston Southern       over  182 Monmouth                   24.5 to 24.5
 134 Montana State             over  145 North Dakota               38.5 to 31.5
 240 Jackson State             over  247 Arkansas - Pine Bluff      31.5 to 28.0
  96 Eastern Washington        over  136 Northern Arizona           45.5 to 38.5
  89 Western Illinois          over  118 Northern Illinois          35.0 to 28.0
  35 Nebraska                  over   67 Northwestern               28.0 to 24.5
  28 West Virginia             over   53 Brigham Young              28.0 to 24.5
 176 Texas - San Antonio       over  193 Old Dominion               28.0 to 28.0
 127 Purdue                    over  121 Nevada - Reno              28.0 to 28.0
 183 Rice                      over  210 North Texas                28.0 to 21.0
  79 Richmond                  over  129 Colgate                    31.5 to 24.5
 181 San Diego                 over  194 Dayton                     28.0 to 17.5
 108 Southern Utah             over  117 Portland State             31.5 to 28.0
  14 Florida State             over   36 South Florida              35.0 to 31.5
 184 Stephen F. Austin         over  228 Abilene Christian          45.5 to 35.0
 147 Stony Brook               over  187 Sacred Heart               21.0 to 14.0
  29 Tennessee                 over   45 Florida                    28.0 to 21.0
  85 Tennessee - Chattanooga   over  109 Samford                    35.0 to 28.0
  84 Utah State                over   65 Air Force                  31.5 to 28.0
 250 Valparaiso                over  252 Davidson                   31.5 to 28.0

50-60% chance of victory:

 103 Akron                     over   97 Appalachian State          28.0 to 24.5
  25 Auburn                    over   17 Louisiana State            24.5 to 24.5
 231 Campbell                  over  223 Butler                     28.0 to 28.0
 154 Alcorn State              over  165 Grambling                  35.0 to 35.0
 135 Lehigh                    over  116 Princeton                  35.0 to 35.0
 197 North Carolina Central    over  229 Norfolk State              21.0 to 21.0
  15 Texas A&M                 over   16 Arkansas                   28.0 to 28.0
  71 Central Michigan          over  104 Virginia                   28.0 to 28.0

NOTE: the above scores are rounded to the nearest 3.5 points. Exact predicted scores are not released until after game time

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