prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 141 Eastern Illinois 56 43.4, 248 Austin Peay 35 8.1
93% 100 New Hampshire 39 38.3, 225 Rhode Island 17 17.6
93% 92 Troy State 52 48.6, 208 New Mexico State 6 24.7
93% 38 Mississippi State 47 37.0, 173 Massachusetts 35 13.1
93% 1 Alabama 48 51.7, 179 Kent State 0 3.2
92% 185 Prairie View 56 45.3, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 20.4
92% 70 Cincinnati 27 40.1, 178 Miami - Ohio 20 17.4
92% 59 Missouri 79 44.4, 245 Delaware State 0 4.7
92% 13 Texas Christian 33 49.6, 156 Southern Methodist 3 23.0
91% 87 Sam Houston State 52 57.3, 252 Houston Baptist 16 15.8
91% 69 Coastal Carolina 41 35.8, 177 Furman 21 13.1
90% 83 Temple 48 42.7, 226 North Carolina - Charl 20 16.3
88% 157 Wofford 31 34.2, 244 East Tennessee State 0 8.5
88% 78 Southern Mississippi 34 42.8, 212 Texas - El Paso 7 23.0
88% 76 Minnesota 31 34.5, 138 Colorado State 24 20.3
88% 49 Kansas State 35 47.2, 229 Missouri State 0 15.2
88% 11 Houston 64 46.6, 189 Texas State - San Marc 3 17.8
87% 80 Tulsa 48 40.0, 176 Fresno State 41 29.7
87% 39 James Madison 31 42.6, 174 Maine 20 22.0
87% 9 Baylor 35 43.5, 34 Oklahoma State 24 33.2
86% 95 Villanova 31 31.3, 211 Lafayette 14 15.2
85% 154 Tennessee - Martin 44 37.3, 205 Tennessee Tech 23 25.2
83% 194 Southeast Louisiana 34 30.3, 218 Northwestern State 24 19.8
83% 161 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 35.1, 224 Murray State 16 24.5
83% 152 South Alabama 41 39.0, 238 Nicholls State 40 18.8
83% 6 Washington 35 37.2, 63 Arizona 28 23.5
82% 32 Memphis 77 45.2, 112 Bowling Green 3 27.2
82% 26 Iowa 14 35.8, 105 Rutgers 7 23.8
82% 21 Boise State 38 38.6, 129 Oregon State 24 23.4
82% 5 Michigan 49 38.5, 66 Penn State 10 20.1
81% 159 Bryant 45 32.7, 220 Central Connecticut 25 17.1
76% 214 Morgan State 28 34.7, 242 Howard 24 23.4
75% 43 Virginia Tech 54 34.4, 64 East Carolina 17 25.1
74% 113 Ohio 37 33.7, 221 Gardner - Webb 21 19.6
73% 42 Western Michigan 49 33.3, 74 Georgia Southern 31 24.2
73% 12 North Carolina 37 44.1, 52 Pittsburgh 36 33.2
71% 190 Jacksonville 24 41.8, 247 Stetson 7 22.8
71% 142 McNeese State 42 30.6, 236 Incarnate Word 35 10.9
70% 183 Stephen F. Austin 41 45.9, 227 Abilene Christian 30 33.7
70% 165 Southern 59 38.8, 241 Alabama A&M 31 27.8
70% 143 Tulane 41 27.5, 172 Louisiana - Lafayette 39 21.0
70% 91 Boston College 42 34.9, 233 Wagner 10 11.8
69% 215 Drake 30 36.3, 235 Morehead State 28 22.0
69% 203 South Carolina State 48 25.6, 240 Florida A&M 14 16.4
68% 10 Mississippi 45 33.8, 41 Georgia 14 26.2
67% 163 Central Florida 53 26.2, 198 Florida International 14 20.9
67% 136 Albany 20 30.6, 158 Saint Francis - Pennsy 9 23.5
67% 131 Ball State 31 29.9, 191 Florida Atlantic 27 23.4
67% 122 Iowa State 44 30.8, 132 San Jose State 10 24.4
67% 94 California Poly 42 32.5, 90 Montana 41 28.5
67% 79 Richmond 38 33.2, 128 Colgate 31 25.3
67% 37 Arizona State 51 53.8, 51 California 41 46.7
66% 96 Eastern Washington 50 44.6, 135 Northern Arizona 35 40.1
66% 89 Western Illinois 28 34.0, 117 Northern Illinois 23 28.6
66% 48 Harvard 32 40.3, 149 Brown 22 24.8
66% 4 Stanford 22 28.0, 40 California - Los Angel 13 23.3
66% 3 Louisville 59 43.8, 75 Marshall 28 33.1
65% 249 Valparaiso 24 32.1, 251 Davidson 20 28.4
65% 239 Jackson State 32 32.7, 246 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 27.2
65% 204 Georgetown 17 24.4, 207 Columbia 14 18.9
65% 180 San Diego 34 26.4, 193 Dayton 22 19.1
65% 168 Weber State 38 31.4, 202 California - Davis 35 25.8
65% 140 Charleston Southern 35 25.5, 181 Monmouth 7 23.3
65% 108 Southern Utah 45 32.5, 116 Portland State 31 27.1
65% 85 Tennessee - Chattanoog 41 35.0, 109 Samford 21 27.0
65% 81 Dartmouth 35 31.0, 118 Holy Cross 10 26.2
65% 57 Jacksonville State 48 31.2, 98 Liberty 19 28.1
65% 35 Nebraska 24 27.1, 67 Northwestern 13 23.8
65% 31 Utah 31 26.1, 22 Southern California 27 22.4
65% 29 Tennessee 38 26.4, 45 Florida 28 21.6
65% 28 West Virginia 35 27.6, 53 Brigham Young 32 24.6
65% 8 Clemson 26 30.4, 24 Georgia Tech 7 27.3
64% 107 Fordham 31 44.0, 114 Pennsylvania 17 39.5
64% 14 Florida State 55 34.7, 36 South Florida 35 32.1
63% 126 Purdue 24 29.7, 120 Nevada - Reno 14 28.5
55% 134 Lehigh 42 36.1, 115 Princeton 28 35.1
54% 230 Campbell 33 29.6, 222 Butler 27 28.3
53% 196 North Carolina Central 34 20.8, 228 Norfolk State 31 20.3
52% 25 Auburn 18 23.6, 17 Louisiana State 13 23.4
52% 15 Texas A&M 45 28.7, 16 Arkansas 24 28.4
47% 164 Grambling 43 35.8, 153 Alcorn State 18 36.3
44% 104 Virginia 49 26.5, 71 Central Michigan 35 27.1
42% 97 Appalachian State 45 26.2, 103 Akron 38 27.2
39% 65 Air Force 27 29.4, 84 Utah State 20 31.0
36% 192 Old Dominion 33 27.1, 175 Texas - San Antonio 19 29.1
36% 93 Middle Tennessee State 38 34.3, 56 Louisiana Tech 34 36.4
35% 232 Idaho State 42 26.7, 217 Sacramento State 34 31.4
35% 223 Cornell 27 21.5, 130 Yale 13 34.1
35% 188 Eastern Michigan 27 36.6, 169 Wyoming 24 39.4
35% 170 Central Arkansas 28 28.4, 125 Arkansas State 23 32.7
35% 23 Wisconsin 30 21.0, 18 Michigan State 6 26.2
34% 160 Buffalo 23 24.9, 101 Army 20 32.8
33% 186 Sacred Heart 38 13.5, 146 Stony Brook 10 21.3
33% 111 Kentucky 17 26.4, 60 South Carolina 10 32.0
33% 106 Syracuse 31 20.2, 124 Connecticut 24 26.3
32% 209 North Texas 42 20.2, 182 Rice 35 27.5
32% 144 North Dakota 17 32.8, 133 Montana State 15 37.3
31% 110 Wake Forest 33 23.6, 77 Indiana 28 30.6
27% 99 Vanderbilt 31 22.9, 54 Western Kentucky 30 31.4
26% 243 Texas Southern 31 17.7, 234 Alabama State 27 27.3
25% 210 Kennesaw State 36 28.3, 155 Duquesne 28 46.4
23% 123 Indiana State 34 26.8, 82 Illinois State 31 33.3
21% 58 Colorado 41 30.0, 20 Oregon 38 43.5
20% 213 Virginia Military 23 18.2, 199 Bucknell 17 30.0
13% 73 Duke 38 26.6, 19 Notre Dame 35 41.1
12% 200 Idaho 33 30.2, 148 Nevada - Las Vegas 30 43.8
10% 250 Savannah State 16 19.0, 167 Bethune - Cookman 10 46.1
7% 216 Elon 27 10.0, 86 William & Mary 10 35.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.15 50 1.06 14 0.87 23 0.97 13 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 80 79.2 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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