2016 Week 8 (12-15 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 94% 236 Alabama State           56 36.3,   253 Mississippi Valley Sta  24 11.3
 94%  67 Sam Houston State       48 61.0,   232 Abilene Christian       21 26.8
 94%  65 Montana                 68 46.2,   225 Sacramento State         7 13.7
 94%  43 Jacksonville State      34 58.5,   249 Austin Peay             14  8.0
 94%  35 Toledo                  42 52.9,   214 Bowling Green           35 17.4
 94%  19 Baylor                  49 47.8,   176 Kansas                   7 13.4
 94%  18 Boise State             28 44.1,   146 Colorado State          23 14.6
 94%   6 Houston                 38 49.3,    80 Tulsa                   31 24.3
 93% 196 North Carolina Central  33 39.4,   250 Savannah State           3 14.6
 93%  15 Louisiana State         45 42.8,    96 Southern Mississippi    10 18.8
 92% 157 Duquesne                31 31.9,   238 Robert Morris           24 11.6
 92%  76 Louisiana Tech          56 41.8,   179 Massachusetts           28 22.4
 92%  33 Iowa                    49 36.3,   150 Purdue                  35 18.9
 92%   9 Florida State           17 36.8,    86 Wake Forest              6 13.9
 92%   5 Louisville              24 45.6,    77 Duke                    14 21.9
 91%  25 Memphis                 24 42.1,   133 Tulane                  14 21.6
 90% 100 Fordham                 44 46.1,   190 Yale                    37 29.1
 90%  29 South Florida           42 35.5,   119 Connecticut             27 15.9
 89% 142 Pennsylvania            35 29.5,   223 Columbia                10 11.9
 89%  70 Lehigh                  35 38.7,   200 Georgetown               3 25.0
 89%  64 Coastal Carolina        17 38.5,   205 Gardner - Webb           7 20.5
 88% 215 Nicholls State          33 36.9,   251 Houston Baptist         30 22.1
 88% 169 Northern Arizona        52 40.5,   226 Idaho State              7 22.9
 88%  99 Samford                 55 40.6,   185 Virginia Military       21 25.9
 88%  66 Troy State              31 35.0,   148 Georgia State           21 18.2
 88%   7 Clemson                 24 36.7,    45 North Carolina State    17 20.0
 87%   3 Alabama                 49 38.4,    27 Tennessee               10 23.0
 86% 197 Alcorn State            23 36.1,   239 Texas Southern          20 21.0
 86% 175 South Carolina State    14 36.5,   243 Howard                   9 21.6
 86% 172 Stony Brook             14 28.4,   219 Rhode Island             3 13.5
 86%  63 San Diego State         17 38.6,   182 Fresno State             3 21.7
 86%  41 Georgia Tech            35 32.7,    94 Georgia Southern        24 20.1
 85% 228 Butler                  20 35.9,   252 Davidson                17 21.6
 85% 153 Southern                28 42.4,   241 Jackson State           24 27.8
 85%  21 Western Michigan        41 46.4,    90 Akron                    0 32.6
 84%  95 Army                    62 32.9,   192 Lafayette                7 19.5
 84%   1 Ohio State              30 30.7,    17 Wisconsin               23 17.0
 83%  12 Oklahoma                38 39.0,    24 Kansas State            17 28.3
 82% 170 Lamar                   32 34.9,   212 Northwestern State      31 25.0
 82%  39 Utah                    19 31.3,   115 Oregon State            14 18.7
 82%  28 Brigham Young           28 34.5,    69 Mississippi State       21 22.7
 81% 183 Idaho                   55 41.3,   211 New Mexico State        23 34.2
 81% 116 Princeton               31 37.7,   188 Brown                    7 25.7
 81% 101 Dartmouth               20 32.1,   137 Towson                  17 18.6
 81%  30 Nebraska                27 37.9,    68 Indiana                 22 30.3
 80% 123 Ball State              31 32.6,   203 Buffalo                 21 23.5
 80%  81 Appalachian State       24 33.9,   158 Louisiana - Lafayette    0 22.9
 79% 199 Hampton                 21 31.9,   234 Morgan State            12 19.1
 79%  37 James Madison           42 39.1,   113 New Hampshire           39 30.9
 78%  54 Texas                   27 38.7,    93 Iowa State               6 27.3
 77% 151 Tennessee - Martin      38 41.1,   216 Murray State            31 31.5
 77% 136 Marshall                27 41.2,   177 Florida Atlantic        21 29.0
 77% 108 North Carolina A&T      52 30.9,   204 Bethune - Cookman       35 21.4
 76% 194 Furman                  52 24.0,   242 East Tennessee State     7 13.6
 75% 130 San Diego               38 32.2,   220 Drake                    7 21.1
 75% 121 Western Illinois        38 33.3,   208 Missouri State          35 22.2
 73% 221 Marist                  44 30.3,   240 Morehead State          41 21.5
 71% 109 Liberty                 36 44.0,   202 Kennesaw State          21 32.7
 68% 165 Mercer                  38 37.4,   181 Western Carolina        24 29.7
 68%  78 California Poly         55 37.8,   139 Portland State          35 30.9
 68%  13 Washington State        27 32.8,    34 California - Los Angel  21 25.2
 67% 159 Eastern Illinois        30 32.0,   187 Tennessee Tech          24 28.1
 67% 128 William & Mary          24 25.8,   132 Delaware                17 19.3
 67%  38 Florida                 40 23.7,    49 Missouri                14 15.6
 67%  23 Southern California     48 32.7,    60 Arizona                 14 27.9
 67%  20 Colorado                40 38.2,    40 Arizona State           16 31.6
 66% 193 Northeast Louisiana     40 37.0,   210 Texas State - San Marc  34 31.3
 66% 102 Colgate                 27 28.0,   195 Bucknell                 7 22.0
 66%  61 Youngstown State        14 26.2,    74 Northern Iowa           10 20.3
 65% 217 Florida International   27 31.1,   230 North Carolina - Charl  26 27.7
 65% 178 Dayton                  36 27.7,   213 Jacksonville            16 24.1
 65% 167 Weber State             45 30.5,   171 Montana State           27 27.7
 65% 156 Tennessee State         35 31.6,   138 Eastern Kentucky        28 25.9
 65% 134 Texas - San Antonio     14 29.8,   189 Rice                    13 25.2
 65% 114 North Dakota            45 27.9,   124 Southern Utah           23 23.9
 65%  91 Central Michigan        34 33.8,   120 Northern Illinois       28 31.3
 65%  51 Pittsburgh              45 35.3,    82 Virginia                31 32.0
 64% 209 California - Davis      34 35.2,   206 Northern Colorado       21 33.2
 64% 186 Southeast Louisiana     58 32.2,   201 Stephen F. Austin       34 30.3
 64% 162 Saint Francis - Pennsy  38 29.1,   164 Bryant                   3 27.7
 64% 126 Illinois                24 26.8,   166 Rutgers                  7 24.6
 61% 107 South Dakota            33 40.7,   161 Indiana State           30 39.2
 59% 143 Sacred Heart            31 26.8,   154 Cornell                 24 26.0
 58% 152 Illinois State          31 30.3,   104 Southern Illinois       28 29.6
 56%  87 Richmond                23 26.5,    83 Villanova                0 25.9
 53%  31 Stanford                17 28.1,    52 Notre Dame              10 27.8

 49% 141 Arkansas State          17 30.4,   110 South Alabama            7 30.5
 43% 140 Maine                   20 23.1,   111 Albany                  16 24.0
 41% 135 Central Arkansas        35 26.8,   160 McNeese State            0 27.8
 39% 246 Alabama A&M             40 32.4,   248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    7 33.5
 37%  84 Temple                  26 28.7,    89 Central Florida         25 30.1
 37%  26 West Virginia           48 43.8,    32 Texas Tech              17 45.2
 36% 244 Florida A&M             41 24.3,   245 Delaware State          27 25.7
 36%  75 Western Kentucky        44 36.8,    92 Middle Tennessee State  43 38.8
 35% 198 San Jose State          14 24.0,   173 Nevada - Reno           10 27.0
 35% 184 Miami - Ohio            18 22.5,   145 Kent State              14 24.8
 35% 147 Nevada - Las Vegas      41 32.3,   155 Hawaii                  38 35.6
 35% 112 The Citadel             22 26.2,    71 Tennessee - Chattanoog  14 29.9
 35%  85 Minnesota               31 25.3,    73 Maryland                10 31.0
 35%  48 South Dakota State      19 28.1,    58 North Dakota State      17 31.2
 35%  36 Arkansas                34 32.3,     8 Mississippi             30 35.7
 34% 227 Wagner                  25 21.6,   224 Central Connecticut     21 28.2
 34%  56 Northwestern            54 16.4,    59 Michigan State          40 22.1
 30% 229 Presbyterian            17 16.9,   163 Monmouth                13 26.2
 23% 149 Holy Cross              27 27.1,    72 Harvard                 17 37.2
 21%  42 North Carolina          20 26.5,    16 Miami - Florida         13 37.6
 19% 144 New Mexico              45 26.5,    57 Air Force               40 40.7
 17% 247 Valparaiso              21 22.9,   235 Stetson                 18 34.8
 17%  97 Vanderbilt              17 16.1,    47 Georgia                 16 29.2
 13% 127 Syracuse                31 23.2,    14 Virginia Tech           17 43.6
 11% 174 Eastern Michigan        27 28.0,   118 Ohio                    20 41.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.02  38 0.97  16 1.06  32 0.99  18 1.08   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111  86  84.9 1.01

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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