prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 209 Bethune - Cookman 41 38.9, 249 Delaware State 10 18.8
94% 174 Southeast Missouri Sta 41 38.7, 244 Austin Peay 21 14.7
94% 120 The Citadel 45 39.5, 247 East Tennessee State 10 6.5
94% 119 Grambling 70 53.8, 252 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 14.8
94% 106 North Carolina A&T 42 40.9, 233 Florida A&M 17 12.5
94% 73 California Poly 59 45.3, 230 Sacramento State 47 19.2
94% 36 James Madison 84 52.4, 216 Rhode Island 7 16.7
94% 14 Oklahoma 56 52.6, 184 Kansas 3 16.5
94% 11 Texas A&M 52 59.8, 207 New Mexico State 10 13.5
93% 86 Sam Houston State 66 47.1, 241 Texas Southern 17 19.5
93% 58 Louisiana Tech 61 45.6, 183 Rice 16 22.8
93% 3 Ohio State 24 39.0, 35 Northwestern 20 12.2
92% 163 Dayton 21 34.6, 229 Stetson 10 14.1
92% 74 Youngstown State 13 35.6, 153 Indiana State 10 17.9
91% 87 Coastal Carolina 48 35.2, 237 Presbyterian 17 14.3
91% 85 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 37.3, 197 Western Carolina 25 20.2
91% 5 Louisville 32 46.7, 93 Virginia 25 24.0
91% 2 Michigan 32 41.4, 79 Michigan State 23 17.9
90% 143 Southern Utah 52 40.0, 232 Idaho State 27 22.4
90% 111 Albany 27 31.5, 218 Elon 3 10.1
90% 91 Liberty 23 33.5, 194 Gardner - Webb 20 14.9
90% 66 Jacksonville State 47 40.8, 161 Eastern Illinois 14 20.8
90% 63 Middle Tennessee State 42 43.9, 215 Florida International 35 22.0
89% 182 McNeese State 33 43.4, 225 Abilene Christian 14 26.4
89% 132 Arkansas State 51 38.6, 205 Northeast Louisiana 10 22.5
89% 83 Air Force 31 37.2, 192 Fresno State 21 24.2
89% 39 Lehigh 58 49.0, 136 Fordham 37 31.8
88% 135 Pennsylvania 21 35.1, 201 Brown 14 20.0
88% 102 San Diego 27 32.5, 223 Marist 3 16.0
88% 55 Western Kentucky 52 43.5, 187 Florida Atlantic 3 27.4
88% 15 Washington State 35 38.9, 98 Oregon State 31 23.3
87% 152 Old Dominion 31 37.3, 228 Texas - El Paso 21 25.7
87% 30 Penn State 62 37.2, 144 Purdue 24 23.7
87% 21 Houston 31 40.3, 71 Central Florida 24 24.5
87% 17 Southern California 45 46.3, 46 California 24 34.8
86% 76 Charleston Southern 49 37.6, 190 Bucknell 28 19.5
85% 109 North Dakota 27 34.1, 150 Weber State 19 24.2
84% 12 Wisconsin 23 27.9, 33 Nebraska 17 16.6
83% 104 Southern Mississippi 24 43.6, 166 Marshall 14 33.4
83% 90 New Hampshire 43 26.2, 151 Stony Brook 14 12.7
83% 43 Georgia Tech 38 30.7, 77 Duke 35 21.1
80% 95 Colgate 26 39.1, 159 Holy Cross 8 28.7
80% 26 Kansas State 31 31.3, 88 Iowa State 26 21.9
79% 4 Washington 31 33.6, 42 Utah 24 21.6
78% 217 Jacksonville 35 38.1, 251 Davidson 17 24.7
78% 52 Temple 34 32.5, 116 Cincinnati 13 22.9
75% 115 South Alabama 13 28.5, 149 Georgia State 10 20.0
74% 141 Wofford 31 31.7, 179 Mercer 21 21.5
73% 165 Duquesne 35 33.9, 185 Bryant 31 24.9
69% 224 Drake 33 29.6, 240 Campbell 21 20.8
67% 235 Butler 23 31.5, 246 Valparaiso 12 26.0
67% 202 Prairie View 28 32.2, 239 Jackson State 14 27.8
67% 114 Princeton 56 33.0, 162 Cornell 7 26.9
66% 124 East Carolina 41 26.3, 125 Connecticut 3 21.9
66% 110 Central Arkansas 45 28.3, 168 Southeast Louisiana 10 23.2
66% 70 Mississippi State 56 35.3, 96 Samford 41 29.9
66% 67 Minnesota 40 26.2, 103 Illinois 17 20.7
66% 60 Oregon 54 44.2, 49 Arizona State 35 40.5
66% 44 Stanford 34 26.1, 81 Arizona 10 20.7
66% 38 South Florida 52 37.7, 47 Navy 45 32.1
66% 24 Florida 24 25.7, 68 Georgia 10 19.3
65% 238 Norfolk State 27 24.2, 236 Morgan State 14 20.7
65% 208 Stephen F. Austin 42 40.6, 234 Incarnate Word 19 37.3
65% 172 Massachusetts 34 31.0, 213 Wagner 10 27.7
65% 142 Texas - San Antonio 31 27.4, 134 North Texas 17 24.7
65% 69 San Diego State 40 26.0, 105 Utah State 13 22.2
65% 48 Eastern Washington 35 46.6, 62 Montana 16 43.6
65% 18 Virginia Tech 39 35.0, 40 Pittsburgh 36 31.0
64% 154 Southern 41 37.6, 200 Alcorn State 33 35.1
64% 6 Auburn 40 33.0, 20 Mississippi 29 31.3
63% 101 New Mexico 28 38.4, 138 Hawaii 21 37.0
58% 171 Furman 24 27.6, 195 Virginia Military 10 26.8
58% 169 Delaware 20 25.5, 146 Towson 6 24.7
54% 226 Robert Morris 19 20.8, 210 Central Connecticut 6 20.4
53% 7 Clemson 37 31.3, 13 Florida State 34 31.1
51% 112 Southern Methodist 35 26.7, 130 Tulane 31 26.6
50% 75 Indiana 42 30.8, 78 Maryland 36 30.8
49% 167 Tennessee - Martin 33 30.7, 157 Eastern Kentucky 3 30.8
49% 108 Harvard 23 21.4, 127 Dartmouth 21 21.5
40% 198 San Jose State 30 29.5, 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 30.4
39% 203 Lafayette 17 23.7, 199 Georgetown 3 24.8
36% 220 Hampton 28 18.1, 177 South Carolina State 26 20.6
35% 250 Savannah State 31 26.6, 245 Howard 27 29.5
35% 206 Yale 31 20.5, 214 Columbia 23 23.9
35% 123 Western Illinois 35 33.9, 117 South Dakota 34 37.4
35% 82 Appalachian State 34 22.2, 113 Georgia Southern 10 25.0
35% 61 North Dakota State 24 18.2, 54 Northern Iowa 20 21.1
35% 53 Notre Dame 30 27.0, 22 Miami - Florida 27 29.6
35% 29 Oklahoma State 37 30.8, 10 West Virginia 20 34.0
34% 243 Alabama A&M 42 25.2, 231 Alabama State 41 30.4
34% 180 Kennesaw State 49 35.9, 175 Monmouth 17 43.1
34% 145 Saint Francis - Pennsy 38 21.9, 139 Sacred Heart 17 25.6
34% 37 Texas 35 30.7, 19 Baylor 34 35.5
33% 173 Miami - Ohio 28 25.1, 137 Eastern Michigan 15 29.7
33% 107 Army 21 15.3, 80 Wake Forest 13 21.7
32% 221 Nicholls State 31 28.5, 212 Northwestern State 14 34.7
32% 100 South Carolina 24 23.1, 31 Tennessee 21 30.2
22% 155 Illinois State 38 24.1, 50 South Dakota State 21 33.2
21% 196 Missouri State 38 26.4, 128 Southern Illinois 35 36.8
18% 158 Kent State 27 19.5, 92 Central Michigan 24 30.1
18% 99 Kentucky 35 27.7, 65 Missouri 21 38.3
16% 156 Maine 35 17.8, 126 William & Mary 28 27.6
15% 193 Northern Colorado 56 27.8, 147 Portland State 49 39.8
14% 222 Buffalo 41 25.3, 94 Akron 20 40.1
14% 51 Texas Tech 27 41.2, 28 Texas Christian 24 51.8
13% 133 Boston College 21 13.3, 56 North Carolina State 14 27.7
13% 64 Tulsa 59 34.0, 34 Memphis 30 46.7
12% 204 Murray State 38 27.0, 140 Tennessee State 31 38.2
12% 118 Wyoming 30 24.1, 25 Boise State 28 39.1
8% 148 Ohio 31 20.8, 45 Toledo 26 41.6
6% 248 Houston Baptist 24 12.8, 170 Lamar 17 41.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.41 40 0.84 9 1.01 30 0.77 24 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 77 85.5 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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