2016 Week 13 (15-19 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 94% 207 Prairie View            57 44.6,   253 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    7 20.2
 94% 158 Southern                55 54.8,   251 Mississippi Valley Sta   0 16.9
 94%  93 San Diego               57 36.3,   234 Campbell                21 12.2
 94%  85 Grambling               47 40.5,   240 Texas Southern          28 13.8
 94%  75 Appalachian State       42 42.1,   194 Northeast Louisiana     17 15.9
 94%  64 Georgia                 35 35.4,   169 Louisiana - Lafayette   21 11.7
 94%  59 Toledo                  37 43.3,   151 Ball State              19 22.1
 94%  32 Boise State             42 50.7,   153 Nevada - Las Vegas      25 23.0
 94%  29 Brigham Young           51 44.5,   156 Massachusetts            9 15.1
 94%  19 Texas A&M               23 45.3,   129 Texas - San Antonio     10 17.9
 94%  17 James Madison           63 54.4,   238 Elon                    14  8.5
 94%  16 Western Michigan        38 53.2,   216 Buffalo                  0 12.1
 94%   9 Wisconsin               49 42.9,   154 Purdue                  20 13.2
 94%   8 Auburn                  55 56.8,   237 Alabama A&M              0  7.5
 94%   3 Michigan                20 49.9,    80 Indiana                 10 15.4
 94%   2 Alabama                 31 47.4,   102 Tennessee - Chattanoog   3  8.4
 94%   1 Ohio State              17 43.7,    63 Michigan State          16 15.9
 93%  77 Kentucky                49 53.4,   232 Austin Peay             13 24.2
 93%  14 Penn State              39 44.7,   188 Rutgers                  0 17.5
 93%   6 Clemson                 35 31.7,    90 Wake Forest             13 11.0
 93%   5 Washington              44 47.7,    74 Arizona State           18 21.9
 92%  96 Colgate                 38 30.9,   215 Georgetown              10 11.5
 92%  91 South Carolina          44 37.7,   212 Western Carolina        31 15.8
 92%  55 Lehigh                  45 44.6,   192 Lafayette               21 24.0
 92%  38 Eastern Washington      35 52.0,   155 Portland State          28 34.2
 92%  15 Florida State           45 43.8,   121 Syracuse                14 24.7
 91% 191 South Carolina State    32 31.8,   242 Savannah State           0 12.3
 91% 112 Wofford                 17 34.0,   205 Virginia Military        0 16.1
 91%  99 Youngstown State        65 31.1,   202 Missouri State          20 12.8
 90% 198 Alcorn State            35 33.3,   246 Jackson State           16 16.8
 90% 104 California Poly         55 41.0,   164 Northern Colorado       48 26.2
 89% 143 Weber State             34 39.2,   224 Idaho State             28 24.5
 89% 126 South Alabama           31 30.4,   244 Presbyterian             7 10.7
 89% 120 Army                    60 36.5,   247 Morgan State             3 14.6
 89%  68 Jacksonville State      33 34.6,   140 Tennessee - Martin       7 19.1
 88% 111 Old Dominion            42 37.3,   208 Florida Atlantic        24 24.8
 88%  62 Princeton               38 29.0,   163 Dartmouth               21 13.8
 88%  50 Nebraska                28 33.3,    98 Maryland                 7 19.7
 88%  46 Temple                  31 32.1,   134 Tulane                   0 18.8
 88%  25 North Carolina          41 38.0,   100 The Citadel              7 23.1
 87% 167 McNeese State           41 32.3,   222 Lamar                   10 19.9
 87% 148 Towson                  32 32.3,   221 Rhode Island            31 20.9
 87%  76 Air Force               41 34.7,   187 San Jose State          38 22.4
 87%  51 Georgia Tech            31 35.4,    94 Virginia                17 23.4
 87%  47 North Dakota State      28 33.2,   118 South Dakota            21 21.6
 87%  45 Iowa                    28 29.6,   127 Illinois                 0 17.7
 86% 229 Morehead State          31 37.7,   252 Davidson                10 27.0
 86% 110 Middle Tennessee State  38 43.4,   200 North Carolina - Charl  31 31.0
 86%  30 Tennessee               63 43.2,    88 Missouri                37 28.8
 85%  48 Memphis                 34 33.1,   146 Cincinnati               7 21.6
 81% 195 Bethune - Cookman       39 31.5,   228 Florida A&M             19 22.2
 81%  78 Charleston Southern     28 49.6,   139 Kennesaw State           7 37.6
 79%  95 Coastal Carolina        42 36.5,   117 Liberty                  7 28.0
 78% 210 Stephen F. Austin       45 36.4,   233 Northwestern State      31 28.8
 78%  57 Navy                    66 37.6,   122 East Carolina           31 29.1
 77% 243 Howard                  26 34.6,   250 Delaware State          21 26.6
 77% 135 Boston College          30 20.2,   172 Connecticut              0 10.8
 77% 106 Albany                  13 24.8,   166 Stony Brook              6 14.9
 77%  26 Stanford                45 36.8,    69 California              31 28.4
 76%  79 Oregon State            42 35.9,   114 Arizona                 17 27.8
 76%  67 Sam Houston State       59 40.8,    86 Central Arkansas        23 32.3
 75% 196 California - Davis      48 35.5,   218 Sacramento State        30 26.3
 74%  43 South Florida           35 43.4,   101 Southern Methodist      27 33.5
 72% 209 New Mexico State        50 39.7,   230 Texas State - San Marc  10 32.5
 72% 152 Pennsylvania            42 30.5,   185 Cornell                 20 23.4
 72% 150 Duquesne                52 32.2,   204 Central Connecticut     19 24.6
 72%  35 Pittsburgh              56 37.8,    61 Duke                    14 29.7
 72%  10 Southern California     36 29.1,    40 California - Los Angel  14 21.2
 67% 159 Tennessee Tech          55 35.1,   181 Murray State            19 29.0
 67% 103 Fordham                 36 31.4,   161 Bucknell                22 26.3
 67%  89 Colorado State          49 35.9,    92 New Mexico              31 31.0
 67%  87 Villanova               41 21.3,   145 Delaware                10 14.7
 67%  83 New Hampshire           24 29.7,   133 Maine                   21 24.1
 66% 235 Incarnate Word          28 32.8,   241 Houston Baptist         26 26.5
 66% 214 Rice                    44 32.2,   211 Texas - El Paso         24 26.9
 66% 130 Southern Illinois       44 33.9,   128 Western Illinois        34 29.2
 66%  21 Miami - Florida         27 25.8,    65 North Carolina State    13 20.3
 65% 116 Central Michigan        27 27.8,   119 Ohio                    20 25.5
 65% 115 Northern Illinois       31 35.0,   123 Eastern Michigan        24 32.5
 64% 225 Jacksonville            41 35.5,   223 Marist                  35 33.0
 64% 219 Drake                   45 27.0,   227 Stetson                 17 24.7
 64% 177 Gardner - Webb          34 24.5,   190 Monmouth                33 22.0
 58% 160 North Texas             29 30.1,   149 Southern Mississippi    23 29.4
 58%  11 Oklahoma                56 34.0,    18 West Virginia           28 33.4
 50% 180 Southeast Louisiana     44 26.5,   174 Nicholls State          42 26.4

 49% 173 Hawaii                  14 29.4,   197 Fresno State            13 29.5
 49%  13 Colorado                38 30.6,     7 Washington State        24 30.6
 47%  28 Virginia Tech           34 28.7,    36 Notre Dame              31 28.9
 44%  54 Arkansas                58 31.3,    66 Mississippi State       42 31.8
 36% 184 Mercer                  27 29.5,   136 Furman                  24 31.2
 36%  42 Tulsa                   35 36.9,    53 Central Florida         20 38.7
 35% 183 Tennessee State         32 22.9,   178 Southeast Missouri Sta  31 26.7
 35% 176 Nevada - Reno           38 21.4,   138 Utah State              37 25.3
 35% 171 Bryant                  42 24.9,   189 Sacred Heart            34 27.9
 35% 168 Eastern Illinois        24 29.3,   175 Eastern Kentucky         0 31.4
 35%  82 Iowa State              66 39.1,    49 Texas Tech              10 42.0
 35%  58 Minnesota               29 23.8,    24 Northwestern            12 27.0
 35%  34 Kansas State            42 30.1,    52 Baylor                  21 32.1
 34% 165 Georgia State           30 21.1,   124 Georgia Southern        24 25.5
 33% 213 Columbia                31 18.1,   203 Brown                   13 24.1
 33% 206 Florida International   31 25.5,   162 Marshall                14 32.2
 33% 199 Bowling Green           42 24.5,   125 Kent State               7 31.2
 33% 137 William & Mary          34 24.9,    72 Richmond                13 29.9
 33%  23 Oklahoma State          31 33.0,    20 Texas Christian          6 38.7
 32% 141 Southern Utah           48 26.7,   109 Northern Arizona        21 34.0
 32%  71 South Dakota State      45 24.6,    56 Northern Iowa           24 31.9
 31%  73 Vanderbilt              38 24.4,    27 Mississippi             17 31.9
 29%  81 Wyoming                 34 29.5,    31 San Diego State         33 38.5
 27% 231 Norfolk State           17 15.3,   220 Hampton                 10 23.6
 26% 193 Wagner                  31 20.1,   132 Saint Francis - Pennsy  24 27.8
 20% 108 Arkansas State          35 24.1,    60 Troy State               3 33.8
 13% 201 North Carolina Central  42 20.2,   107 North Carolina A&T      21 31.5
 13%  70 Oregon                  30 31.7,    22 Utah                    28 45.8
 13%  41 Houston                 36 30.0,     4 Louisville              10 43.0
 12%  44 Florida                 16  9.9,    12 Louisiana State         10 24.6
  8% 182 Montana State           24 21.2,    84 Montana                 17 41.3
  7% 217 Yale                    21 19.1,   142 Harvard                 14 39.3
  7% 179 Kansas                  24 17.5,    33 Texas                   21 39.5
  6% 249 East Tennessee State    15 13.4,   113 Samford                 14 39.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 0.80  32 0.66  19 1.13  28 0.94  33 0.94   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 119  85  94.3 0.90

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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