prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 83 Appalachian State 37 40.0, 191 New Mexico State 7 20.3
94% 78 Coastal Carolina 26 42.2, 225 Hampton 7 15.2
94% 65 Indiana 26 44.6, 147 Purdue 24 26.8
94% 24 Stanford 41 42.9, 208 Rice 17 4.8
94% 22 Kansas State 34 42.8, 158 Kansas 19 11.4
94% 7 Clemson 56 39.8, 101 South Carolina 7 11.8
93% 91 Troy State 40 44.4, 243 Texas State - San Marc 7 18.1
93% 25 Brigham Young 28 39.3, 126 Utah State 10 15.3
92% 35 Temple 37 41.9, 136 East Carolina 10 20.6
92% 32 Northwestern 42 34.6, 146 Illinois 21 12.3
91% 110 Old Dominion 42 37.7, 201 Florida International 28 20.8
91% 23 Pittsburgh 76 50.5, 131 Syracuse 61 28.0
90% 117 Middle Tennessee State 77 43.9, 209 Florida Atlantic 56 26.7
90% 99 Maryland 31 35.9, 200 Rutgers 13 18.2
90% 74 Youngstown State 38 33.2, 132 Samford 24 17.3
90% 37 Western Kentucky 60 44.7, 184 Marshall 6 26.6
90% 31 Tulsa 40 40.7, 157 Cincinnati 37 20.6
90% 28 Virginia Tech 52 37.5, 92 Virginia 10 19.0
90% 18 Miami - Florida 40 34.0, 82 Duke 21 16.0
90% 12 Wisconsin 31 32.0, 51 Minnesota 17 14.6
90% 6 Southern California 45 35.8, 38 Notre Dame 27 20.0
90% 2 Alabama 30 32.3, 13 Auburn 12 13.4
88% 87 Grambling 52 41.2, 144 Southern 30 29.4
87% 115 Ohio 9 35.4, 169 Akron 3 23.3
87% 114 Texas - San Antonio 33 39.0, 194 North Carolina - Charl 14 23.8
87% 75 Villanova 31 26.8, 133 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 11.8
87% 9 Penn State 45 37.7, 56 Michigan State 12 21.8
86% 14 Florida State 31 29.1, 41 Florida 13 18.1
84% 94 Tennessee - Chattanoog 45 32.1, 145 Weber State 14 20.9
84% 19 Western Michigan 55 39.9, 57 Toledo 35 29.5
83% 1 Ohio State 30 32.9, 3 Michigan 27 21.9
80% 178 Bowling Green 27 34.1, 216 Buffalo 19 24.4
79% 45 Navy 75 38.2, 98 Southern Methodist 31 28.3
76% 86 Richmond 39 36.8, 119 North Carolina A&T 10 27.5
73% 10 Colorado 27 31.4, 34 Utah 22 21.6
68% 100 Northern Illinois 31 29.8, 170 Kent State 21 22.8
68% 44 South Florida 48 40.3, 60 Central Florida 31 32.3
66% 186 Hawaii 46 33.0, 172 Massachusetts 40 29.0
66% 88 San Diego 35 33.9, 104 California Poly 21 28.7
66% 30 Iowa 40 24.9, 49 Nebraska 10 18.9
66% 27 West Virginia 49 28.7, 50 Iowa State 19 25.0
65% 188 South Carolina State 28 24.8, 189 Bethune - Cookman 7 21.1
65% 137 Miami - Ohio 21 28.6, 143 Ball State 20 24.8
65% 4 Washington 45 34.3, 8 Washington State 17 31.2
64% 15 Louisiana State 54 22.5, 26 Texas A&M 39 20.5
59% 71 Oregon State 34 39.9, 62 Oregon 24 39.1
53% 175 San Jose State 16 26.1, 207 Fresno State 14 25.8
53% 108 Central Arkansas 31 24.7, 103 Illinois State 24 24.3
48% 154 Tulane 38 18.6, 195 Connecticut 13 18.8
46% 102 New Mexico 56 41.2, 76 Wyoming 35 41.7
46% 36 Texas Christian 31 28.5, 53 Texas 9 29.0
36% 245 Morgan State 35 23.1, 244 Savannah State 24 25.0
36% 139 Eastern Michigan 26 30.0, 116 Central Michigan 21 31.5
36% 107 Wofford 15 26.8, 72 Charleston Southern 14 28.2
36% 54 Georgia Tech 28 25.8, 66 Georgia 27 27.5
36% 46 Memphis 48 29.6, 20 Houston 44 32.0
35% 176 Nevada - Reno 45 31.4, 142 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 35.7
35% 149 Idaho 38 26.7, 123 South Alabama 31 29.3
35% 112 Boston College 17 13.8, 95 Wake Forest 14 18.1
35% 79 California 36 37.4, 48 California - Los Angel 10 40.5
35% 61 Vanderbilt 45 26.2, 29 Tennessee 34 29.2
34% 96 Missouri 28 34.0, 59 Arkansas 24 39.1
34% 90 New Hampshire 64 31.8, 42 Lehigh 21 35.8
33% 84 Air Force 27 30.6, 43 Boise State 20 36.6
29% 81 Texas Tech 54 41.8, 64 Baylor 35 48.0
25% 127 Arizona 56 32.9, 73 Arizona State 35 40.2
23% 218 Texas - El Paso 52 24.6, 153 North Texas 24 33.7
21% 70 Mississippi State 55 32.8, 40 Mississippi 20 43.1
14% 68 North Carolina State 28 20.0, 21 North Carolina 21 32.5
13% 168 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 19.7, 80 Arkansas State 19 31.0
12% 152 Southern Mississippi 39 32.3, 47 Louisiana Tech 24 46.6
12% 77 Colorado State 63 21.6, 33 San Diego State 31 34.6
7% 85 Kentucky 41 24.8, 11 Louisville 38 48.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.92 23 0.67 7 0.57 18 0.90 19 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 73 48 56.7 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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