prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 31 North Dakota State 36 30.9, 68 South Dakota State 10 18.7
87% 14 James Madison 65 57.1, 50 Sam Houston State 7 41.4
85% 59 Youngstown State 30 24.4, 91 Wofford 23 12.3
67% 43 Eastern Washington 38 37.8, 73 Richmond 0 31.2
10% 129 Army 21 22.7, 34 Navy 17 38.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 1.49 0 0.00 4 0.86 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 4 4.2 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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