2016 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 89%  49 Mississippi State       17 37.6,   135 Miami - Ohio            16 21.1
 88%  90 Grambling               10 35.7,   180 North Carolina Central   9 21.4
 88%  33 Brigham Young           24 40.0,    89 Wyoming                 21 25.0
 87%  73 Air Force               45 35.7,   143 South Alabama           21 23.6
 87%  43 Tulsa                   55 42.1,   119 Central Michigan        10 30.9
 87%  32 Utah                    26 35.1,    78 Indiana                 24 23.8
 79%  38 South Florida           46 37.2,   112 South Carolina          39 26.5
 74% 121 Army                    38 28.1,   183 North Texas             31 19.4
 68%   1 Alabama                 24 29.6,     3 Washington               7 22.0
 67%  87 New Mexico              23 36.7,   120 Texas - San Antonio     20 30.1
 67%  19 Virginia Tech           35 35.3,    58 Arkansas                24 28.4
 66%  34 Tennessee               38 34.7,    57 Nebraska                24 30.3
 66%  13 Wisconsin               24 31.3,    25 Western Michigan        16 26.1
 65% 114 Old Dominion            24 36.0,   138 Eastern Michigan        20 32.5
 65%  45 Georgia Tech            33 34.1,    61 Kentucky                18 30.9
 65%  26 Western Kentucky        51 40.2,    40 Memphis                 31 36.9
 65%  14 Louisiana State         29 30.0,    15 Louisville               9 27.2
 65%   8 Southern California     52 30.8,     9 Penn State              49 28.1
 65%   7 James Madison           27 32.6,    24 North Dakota State      17 28.6
 65%   6 Oklahoma                35 33.3,    11 Auburn                  19 30.1
 64% 130 Southern Mississippi    28 30.0,   142 Louisiana - Lafayette   21 28.7
 63%  94 Troy State              28 25.3,   116 Ohio                    23 24.1
 56% 102 Boston College          36 22.4,   101 Maryland                30 21.8
 55%  17 Miami - Florida         31 27.5,    20 West Virginia           14 27.0
 54%  21 Kansas State            33 27.5,    28 Texas A&M               28 27.2
 53%  31 Stanford                25 24.9,    29 North Carolina          23 24.6

 50%  60 North Carolina State    41 20.2,    53 Vanderbilt              17 20.2
 48%  18 Oklahoma State          38 29.8,    16 Colorado                 8 29.9
 36%  39 Northwestern            31 34.4,    27 Pittsburgh              24 36.2
 35%  66 Baylor                  31 32.5,    41 Boise State             12 35.5
 35%  62 Louisiana Tech          48 38.7,    42 Navy                    45 41.6
 35%  44 Florida                 30 17.0,    22 Iowa                     3 20.2
 34%  96 Arkansas State          31 23.8,    70 Central Florida         13 29.1
 34%  80 Appalachian State       31 26.8,    52 Toledo                  28 30.9
 34%  50 San Diego State         34 26.0,    23 Houston                 10 32.1
 33%  59 Georgia                 31 21.3,    36 Texas Christian         23 27.7
 31% 177 Hawaii                  52 34.4,    93 Middle Tennessee State  35 41.9
 29%  51 Youngstown State        40 25.4,    30 Eastern Washington      38 33.2
 27%  10 Florida State           33 25.5,     4 Michigan                32 34.4
 21%   5 Clemson                 31 26.2,     2 Ohio State               0 35.0
 15%  46 Minnesota               17 25.6,    12 Washington State        12 36.6
 13% 118 Idaho                   61 27.3,    69 Colorado State          50 38.0
 13% 103 Wake Forest             34 12.4,    35 Temple                  26 25.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                6 1.25  23 0.93   5 0.53   9 0.77   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  43  26  29.9 0.87

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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