prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 26 Stanford 62 51.2, 188 Rice 7 24.3
66% 36 Brigham Young 20 52.4, 154 Portland State 6 32.7
64% 38 South Florida 42 52.5, 168 San Jose State 22 38.6
60% 73 Colorado State 58 45.0, 83 Oregon State 27 41.6
60% 72 Jacksonville State 27 40.8, 85 Tennessee - Chattanoog 13 37.2
56% 232 Florida A&M 29 38.7, 233 Texas Southern 7 36.3
50% 95 Colgate 20 44.5, 112 California Poly 14 44.6
46% 159 Hawaii 38 43.9, 167 Massachusetts 35 45.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.07 3 1.50 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 8 6 4.8 1.25
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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