prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 38 North Dakota State 72 63.6, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 11.8
80% 6 Oklahoma 56 67.2, 207 Texas - El Paso 7 22.6
76% 3 Clemson 56 55.7, 157 Kent State 3 15.3
74% 33 Texas Christian 63 53.4, 245 Jackson State 0 16.5
73% 89 Montana 45 57.0, 249 Valparaiso 23 24.3
73% 54 Louisiana Tech 52 59.5, 236 Northwestern State 24 27.8
72% 44 Memphis 37 57.6, 206 Northeast Louisiana 29 28.1
72% 5 Washington 30 53.6, 171 Rutgers 14 20.7
71% 15 Penn State 52 56.2, 133 Akron 0 28.4
71% 11 Louisville 35 58.5, 150 Purdue 28 31.3
70% 143 Delaware 22 49.2, 250 Delaware State 3 19.0
70% 75 Arizona State 37 58.1, 198 New Mexico State 31 33.7
70% 55 Toledo 47 50.9, 230 Elon 13 22.9
70% 28 Western Kentucky 31 55.7, 210 Eastern Kentucky 17 28.1
70% 16 Miami - Florida 41 52.0, 194 Bethune - Cookman 13 22.4
70% 13 James Madison 34 58.1, 134 East Carolina 14 33.6
69% 106 Illinois State 45 48.5, 244 Butler 0 21.5
69% 86 Coastal Carolina 38 51.7, 181 Massachusetts 28 28.1
69% 50 Minnesota 17 47.9, 209 Buffalo 7 20.0
69% 49 Arkansas 49 46.1, 222 Florida A&M 7 21.3
69% 17 Washington State 31 51.1, 172 Montana State 0 25.8
68% 135 Cincinnati 26 50.3, 238 Austin Peay 14 26.7
68% 91 New Mexico 38 56.3, 228 Abilene Christian 14 34.9
68% 61 Michigan State 35 50.1, 177 Bowling Green 10 27.8
68% 48 San Diego State 38 48.7, 203 California - Davis 17 24.0
68% 34 Mississippi 47 52.0, 145 South Alabama 27 29.7
68% 14 Wisconsin 59 44.4, 115 Utah State 10 18.8
68% 12 Auburn 41 46.3, 95 Georgia Southern 7 21.6
68% 2 Ohio State 49 49.3, 76 Indiana 21 25.7
67% 153 Towson 10 46.6, 243 Morgan State 0 24.9
67% 79 Missouri 72 50.5, 216 Missouri State 43 29.2
67% 35 Northwestern 31 43.7, 159 Nevada - Reno 20 21.6
66% 105 Alabama - Birmingham 38 52.5, 240 Alabama A&M 7 34.0
66% 85 Wake Forest 51 37.8, 242 Presbyterian 7 15.3
66% 83 Central Florida 61 45.3, 200 Florida International 17 24.8
66% 71 Air Force 62 46.5, 204 Virginia Military 0 26.2
66% 51 Navy 42 51.4, 192 Florida Atlantic 19 32.5
65% 32 Iowa 24 46.2, 88 Wyoming 3 29.4
65% 26 Kansas State 55 44.3, 116 Central Arkansas 19 25.7
64% 232 Texas State - San Marc 20 38.7, 247 Houston Baptist 11 33.2
64% 195 Fresno State 66 43.8, 241 Incarnate Word 0 28.9
64% 190 Bucknell 45 36.9, 229 Marist 6 26.4
64% 179 Monmouth 31 40.7, 197 Lafayette 12 34.7
64% 178 Sacred Heart 42 42.6, 234 Stetson 3 26.8
64% 173 Mercer 48 45.3, 219 Jacksonville 7 38.6
64% 170 North Texas 59 38.5, 226 Lamar 14 30.0
64% 155 Southern 14 40.2, 183 South Carolina State 8 33.0
64% 149 Eastern Michigan 24 45.2, 208 North Carolina - Charl 7 34.0
64% 147 Hawaii 41 44.0, 196 Western Carolina 18 36.2
64% 137 North Carolina A&T 45 35.3, 189 Gardner - Webb 3 28.5
64% 129 Illinois 24 38.4, 146 Ball State 21 32.5
64% 124 Central Michigan 30 41.9, 217 Rhode Island 27 31.1
64% 122 Southern Methodist 58 50.1, 218 Stephen F. Austin 14 37.2
64% 120 Idaho 28 49.0, 224 Sacramento State 6 35.5
64% 117 Ohio 59 37.6, 221 Hampton 0 23.6
64% 114 Samford 28 48.6, 148 Kennesaw State 23 41.4
64% 109 South Dakota 77 42.3, 220 Drake 7 35.9
64% 107 Syracuse 50 44.9, 212 Central Connecticut 7 33.5
64% 100 Wofford 24 36.5, 144 Furman 23 26.8
64% 73 New Hampshire 24 42.7, 139 Maine 23 28.2
64% 68 Duke 60 39.8, 186 North Carolina Central 7 26.2
64% 65 South Dakota State 51 46.6, 141 Duquesne 13 33.8
64% 63 Oregon 77 51.9, 125 Southern Utah 21 40.5
64% 59 Georgia 31 34.8, 70 Appalachian State 10 27.7
64% 58 Nebraska 43 39.7, 90 Arkansas State 36 28.0
64% 47 South Florida 31 40.9, 168 Stony Brook 17 26.2
64% 37 Boise State 24 44.4, 82 Troy State 13 30.0
64% 36 Utah 37 41.2, 111 North Dakota 16 26.1
64% 27 Pittsburgh 28 44.1, 64 Youngstown State 21 38.5
64% 18 Oklahoma State 59 53.0, 46 Tulsa 24 41.1
64% 10 Southern California 49 45.6, 22 Western Michigan 31 35.0
64% 9 Louisiana State 27 29.7, 87 Brigham Young 0 12.9
64% 4 Michigan 33 36.3, 29 Florida 17 23.6
64% 1 Alabama 24 43.1, 8 Florida State 7 29.3
63% 98 Arizona 62 43.5, 142 Northern Arizona 24 38.8
63% 72 Kentucky 24 44.8, 110 Southern Mississippi 17 40.4
63% 60 Mississippi State 49 43.7, 80 Charleston Southern 0 39.0
63% 40 Notre Dame 49 38.6, 42 Temple 16 33.9
62% 69 Vanderbilt 28 41.5, 99 Middle Tennessee State 6 37.0
60% 154 Louisiana - Lafayette 51 36.4, 188 Southeast Louisiana 48 32.3
60% 127 Western Illinois 41 39.9, 175 Tennessee Tech 14 36.3
58% 152 Oregon State 35 32.9, 151 Portland State 32 30.2
55% 162 Marshall 31 34.8, 138 Miami - Ohio 26 32.8
53% 180 Tennessee State 17 36.8, 167 Georgia State 10 35.8
52% 20 Virginia Tech 31 36.3, 24 West Virginia 24 35.5
50% 165 Kansas 38 31.3, 193 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 31.4
50% 21 Colorado 17 40.0, 19 Colorado State 3 40.1
48% 101 Virginia 28 33.8, 121 William & Mary 10 34.6
46% 57 Texas Tech 56 54.0, 45 Eastern Washington 10 55.1
45% 104 Old Dominion 31 35.5, 113 Albany 17 37.4
45% 96 Boston College 23 31.6, 97 Northern Illinois 20 33.7
45% 30 Tennessee 42 40.8, 39 Georgia Tech 41 42.5
44% 84 Sam Houston State 48 43.9, 78 Richmond 34 46.0
43% 67 Iowa State 42 32.7, 66 Northern Iowa 24 35.3
42% 185 Connecticut 27 29.6, 176 Holy Cross 20 32.8
42% 103 Army 64 38.0, 102 Fordham 6 40.9
42% 77 Villanova 38 33.9, 74 Lehigh 35 36.9
42% 56 California - Los Angel 45 34.1, 23 Texas A&M 44 37.3
41% 174 Eastern Illinois 22 36.2, 161 Indiana State 20 39.6
36% 235 Robert Morris 13 22.4, 169 Dayton 10 33.1
36% 214 Nicholls State 37 32.8, 166 McNeese State 35 40.4
36% 187 San Jose State 34 22.7, 158 California Poly 13 28.8
36% 140 Tulane 43 32.1, 118 Grambling 14 39.6
36% 119 Liberty 48 32.6, 43 Baylor 45 46.5
36% 94 Maryland 51 30.9, 52 Texas 41 43.9
36% 93 South Carolina 35 26.3, 41 North Carolina State 28 35.4
36% 62 California 35 42.6, 25 North Carolina 30 53.6
35% 246 Howard 43 35.0, 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 40 51.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.48 76 1.35 11 1.39 2 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 85 69.6 1.22
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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