prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 15 James Madison 52 59.2, 235 East Tennessee State 10 8.7
83% 22 Colorado 37 52.6, 232 Texas State - San Marc 3 8.8
83% 20 Kansas State 55 52.8, 215 North Carolina - Charl 7 10.8
83% 10 Wisconsin 31 51.8, 192 Florida Atlantic 14 8.8
83% 1 Alabama 41 52.9, 183 Fresno State 10 6.2
82% 122 Southern Illinois 55 58.7, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 3 15.8
80% 82 Colorado State 38 45.1, 229 Abilene Christian 10 12.9
80% 4 Michigan 36 45.6, 140 Cincinnati 14 7.7
79% 54 Texas 56 40.8, 181 San Jose State 0 16.7
79% 21 Texas A&M 24 52.3, 208 Nicholls State 14 17.3
76% 70 Vanderbilt 42 43.4, 242 Alabama A&M 0 10.9
76% 9 Louisiana State 45 35.9, 113 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 11.1
74% 68 Northern Iowa 45 35.4, 168 California Poly 38 15.9
73% 67 Youngstown State 30 35.6, 234 Robert Morris 0 5.8
73% 24 West Virginia 56 44.7, 143 East Carolina 20 19.3
72% 151 Akron 52 51.1, 253 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 3 22.6
72% 132 Grambling 23 44.4, 237 Northwestern State 10 18.8
72% 77 Appalachian State 54 43.9, 244 Savannah State 7 13.7
72% 27 Tennessee 42 48.5, 164 Indiana State 7 24.4
71% 18 Virginia Tech 27 39.0, 149 Delaware 0 13.7
70% 137 Miami - Ohio 31 43.4, 239 Austin Peay 10 21.2
70% 17 Oklahoma State 44 44.9, 141 South Alabama 7 22.4
70% 5 Washington 63 45.5, 86 Montana 7 21.9
69% 116 Albany 26 36.4, 243 Morgan State 0 14.8
69% 108 Liberty 58 51.7, 230 Morehead State 17 28.6
69% 107 The Citadel 48 38.1, 241 Presbyterian 7 12.2
69% 89 Army 21 37.2, 211 Buffalo 17 15.1
69% 41 North Carolina State 37 39.1, 155 Marshall 20 17.6
67% 148 Duquesne 45 41.2, 245 Valparaiso 40 23.8
67% 114 North Dakota 34 39.7, 214 Missouri State 0 22.5
67% 73 Kentucky 27 39.8, 207 Eastern Kentucky 16 22.1
67% 61 South Dakota State 31 39.4, 187 Montana State 27 21.1
67% 57 Minnesota 48 44.9, 169 Oregon State 14 32.2
67% 52 California - Los Angel 56 38.9, 102 Hawaii 23 25.6
67% 45 Tulsa 66 45.9, 147 Louisiana - Lafayette 42 28.7
67% 33 Mississippi 45 47.5, 150 Tennessee - Martin 23 28.7
66% 228 Hampton 28 32.1, 251 Delaware State 15 15.2
66% 193 Western Carolina 63 44.6, 252 Davidson 17 25.0
66% 190 Tennessee State 17 34.1, 249 Jackson State 15 19.2
66% 123 Utah State 51 42.8, 220 Idaho State 13 26.6
66% 92 South Dakota 35 45.7, 184 Bowling Green 27 31.0
66% 84 Troy State 34 41.5, 223 Alabama State 7 22.3
66% 58 California 33 50.7, 154 Weber State 20 34.9
66% 48 Navy 23 38.9, 131 Tulane 21 23.0
65% 166 Kent State 38 36.6, 240 Howard 31 21.6
65% 76 Sam Houston State 44 51.6, 201 Prairie View 31 38.7
65% 51 Toledo 37 39.6, 160 Nevada - Reno 24 26.0
65% 36 Utah 19 22.2, 159 Brigham Young 13 11.9
65% 3 Clemson 14 35.6, 14 Auburn 6 21.9
64% 233 Marist 38 29.6, 238 Stetson 17 24.0
64% 226 Sacramento State 56 37.2, 247 Incarnate Word 22 26.0
64% 172 Dayton 25 27.5, 196 Southeast Missouri Sta 23 17.1
64% 170 Sacred Heart 38 30.6, 203 Lafayette 24 25.5
64% 167 Stony Brook 35 28.4, 213 Rhode Island 18 22.2
64% 142 Kennesaw State 27 39.3, 185 Tennessee Tech 14 29.9
64% 136 Southern Utah 51 43.0, 219 Stephen F. Austin 14 31.3
64% 135 Maine 60 34.4, 157 Bryant 12 28.0
64% 134 William & Mary 20 30.9, 227 Norfolk State 6 17.8
64% 126 Saint Francis - Pennsy 31 38.0, 199 Wagner 6 24.8
64% 121 Fordham 38 39.2, 217 Central Connecticut 31 28.8
64% 118 Central Arkansas 41 39.1, 209 Murray State 13 30.1
64% 111 Southern Methodist 54 36.4, 156 North Texas 32 28.5
64% 104 Northern Illinois 38 34.3, 171 Eastern Illinois 10 27.0
64% 96 Wyoming 27 34.0, 202 Gardner - Webb 0 22.3
64% 90 Maryland 63 34.2, 158 Towson 17 24.0
64% 72 New Hampshire 22 33.0, 109 Georgia Southern 12 24.3
64% 50 Oregon 42 42.7, 59 Nebraska 35 36.2
64% 32 Houston 19 41.5, 94 Arizona 16 33.3
64% 31 North Dakota State 40 34.7, 55 Eastern Washington 13 28.1
64% 29 Texas Christian 28 34.3, 56 Arkansas 7 29.5
64% 19 Washington State 47 34.5, 40 Boise State 44 26.7
64% 13 Penn State 33 44.9, 25 Pittsburgh 14 35.5
63% 210 Georgetown 16 29.3, 236 Campbell 10 24.0
63% 101 Wofford 28 28.6, 163 Mercer 27 24.6
57% 8 Southern California 42 31.7, 7 Stanford 24 30.1
56% 125 Central Michigan 45 29.4, 161 Kansas 27 27.7
56% 12 Louisville 47 36.7, 26 North Carolina 35 34.8
55% 115 Southern Mississippi 45 37.2, 153 Southern 0 35.8
54% 119 Western Illinois 38 33.5, 146 Northern Arizona 20 32.3
53% 144 Ball State 51 34.2, 110 Alabama - Birmingham 31 33.4
53% 78 Wake Forest 34 20.0, 98 Boston College 10 19.1
53% 44 San Diego State 30 34.5, 80 Arizona State 20 33.6
52% 83 Indiana 34 31.2, 100 Virginia 17 30.6
52% 38 Iowa 44 26.8, 65 Iowa State 41 26.1
51% 37 Georgia Tech 37 27.5, 39 Jacksonville State 10 27.4
50% 63 Duke 41 26.4, 35 Northwestern 17 26.5
45% 49 Temple 16 21.3, 69 Villanova 13 23.1
43% 152 Eastern Michigan 16 26.7, 173 Rutgers 13 28.8
42% 53 Mississippi State 57 38.0, 47 Louisiana Tech 21 40.1
41% 64 Michigan State 28 31.0, 23 Western Michigan 14 33.7
39% 106 Old Dominion 17 33.8, 138 Massachusetts 7 35.8
38% 176 Holy Cross 20 24.3, 182 Bucknell 0 27.9
36% 246 Houston Baptist 24 19.3, 250 Texas Southern 17 27.3
36% 222 Rice 31 31.9, 212 Texas - El Paso 14 38.0
36% 206 Florida International 17 26.5, 179 Alcorn State 10 37.6
36% 197 Bethune - Cookman 28 28.9, 180 Southeast Louisiana 23 33.1
36% 162 Nevada - Las Vegas 44 35.2, 127 Idaho 16 40.0
36% 145 Purdue 44 29.5, 99 Ohio 21 34.6
36% 117 Middle Tennessee State 30 35.6, 97 Syracuse 23 43.7
36% 91 South Carolina 31 26.9, 74 Missouri 13 34.2
36% 79 Richmond 20 23.7, 93 Colgate 17 28.8
36% 60 Georgia 20 26.2, 34 Notre Dame 19 34.0
36% 6 Oklahoma 31 29.0, 2 Ohio State 16 41.2
35% 205 California - Davis 35 22.9, 105 San Diego 7 39.2
35% 178 Monmouth 46 30.9, 71 Lehigh 27 43.4
35% 130 Illinois 20 26.1, 28 Western Kentucky 7 39.5
34% 231 Elon 34 16.0, 139 Furman 31 33.7
34% 120 Texas - San Antonio 17 24.8, 43 Baylor 10 42.7
33% 191 New Mexico State 30 30.7, 95 New Mexico 28 46.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 1.26 72 1.13 15 1.34 6 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 85 71.9 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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