prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
96% 85 Western Kentucky 15 44.7, 224 Texas - El Paso 14 16.9
96% 74 North Carolina A&T 44 47.2, 241 Delaware State 3 8.7
96% 53 Sam Houston State 27 57.3, 245 Stephen F. Austin 16 20.8
96% 16 Southern California 38 53.7, 183 Oregon State 10 15.9
95% 4 Ohio State 62 44.0, 61 Maryland 14 16.6
94% 160 Southeast Louisiana 49 49.4, 251 Incarnate Word 30 18.8
94% 8 Washington 38 41.8, 62 California 7 18.6
94% 3 Auburn 44 40.9, 78 Mississippi 23 14.6
93% 82 Central Arkansas 27 39.5, 240 Houston Baptist 7 11.2
92% 188 South Carolina State 35 29.9, 246 Morgan State 14 6.2
92% 106 Samford 26 39.7, 244 Virginia Military 7 16.1
92% 89 Northern Illinois 24 33.9, 211 Kent State 3 12.2
92% 2 Clemson 28 36.1, 35 Wake Forest 14 11.7
92% 1 Alabama 27 42.4, 42 Texas A&M 19 19.0
91% 91 Princeton 50 35.1, 230 Georgetown 30 10.1
91% 68 Kentucky 40 34.9, 143 Missouri 34 20.0
91% 19 North Dakota State 52 42.2, 159 Indiana State 0 15.0
90% 113 Marshall 14 37.8, 233 North Carolina - Charl 3 18.7
90% 13 Virginia Tech 23 33.1, 105 Boston College 10 13.4
89% 199 Southern 35 35.0, 239 Alabama A&M 14 19.0
89% 94 Montana 39 48.0, 200 Idaho State 31 30.7
88% 37 Iowa 45 29.5, 150 Illinois 16 10.7
87% 152 Kennesaw State 48 39.2, 250 Texas Southern 3 15.2
87% 110 Fresno State 27 40.2, 238 San Jose State 10 20.4
87% 44 South Dakota State 49 39.2, 109 Southern Illinois 14 26.0
86% 163 Northeast Louisiana 45 38.7, 231 Texas State - San Marc 27 26.0
86% 33 Texas Tech 65 52.5, 172 Kansas 19 34.1
85% 65 Toledo 20 41.5, 144 Eastern Michigan 15 26.1
83% 47 Western Michigan 71 35.1, 142 Buffalo 68 21.6
80% 155 Nicholls State 14 37.7, 225 Northwestern State 10 23.6
80% 79 Appalachian State 45 35.1, 140 New Mexico State 31 20.4
80% 51 Jacksonville State 34 34.0, 161 Austin Peay 14 15.9
79% 120 Army 49 29.6, 227 Rice 12 14.4
78% 6 Penn State 31 33.6, 54 Northwestern 7 19.4
77% 212 Jacksonville 35 42.3, 253 Davidson 21 17.8
77% 168 Middle Tennessee State 37 32.7, 203 Florida International 17 21.6
77% 12 Wisconsin 38 32.4, 69 Nebraska 17 19.6
75% 191 North Carolina Central 13 37.0, 234 Howard 7 24.7
74% 124 Montana State 30 37.8, 208 Portland State 22 23.4
74% 81 Memphis 70 34.7, 194 Connecticut 31 20.8
73% 181 Alcorn State 24 30.3, 232 Alabama State 10 20.8
73% 153 McNeese State 13 31.2, 218 Abilene Christian 7 19.0
73% 43 San Diego State 41 37.0, 119 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 26.0
71% 30 Central Florida 51 33.5, 128 Cincinnati 23 19.8
70% 139 Southern Utah 20 38.9, 198 California Poly 14 27.5
70% 45 Houston 35 37.5, 63 Southern Methodist 22 27.0
68% 58 Boise State 24 29.4, 178 Brigham Young 7 19.7
67% 216 Campbell 49 35.1, 235 Valparaiso 10 25.7
67% 193 Eastern Illinois 24 27.0, 205 Tennessee Tech 23 19.1
67% 158 Duquesne 38 32.5, 187 Wagner 0 22.8
67% 156 Grambling 34 34.0, 189 Prairie View 21 25.6
67% 40 Colorado State 27 38.5, 114 Utah State 14 27.4
67% 39 Indiana 27 38.0, 102 Charleston Southern 0 29.5
67% 11 Notre Dame 33 39.0, 57 North Carolina 10 30.2
66% 165 North Dakota 48 32.8, 192 Northern Colorado 38 25.9
66% 125 Temple 34 35.2, 184 East Carolina 10 26.0
66% 73 Eastern Washington 41 37.8, 107 California - Davis 38 31.2
66% 55 Villanova 31 29.5, 90 Maine 0 19.4
66% 15 Texas Christian 31 36.4, 25 West Virginia 24 28.2
66% 9 Georgia 45 21.9, 64 Vanderbilt 14 12.7
65% 217 Hampton 17 25.5, 248 Savannah State 10 17.7
65% 209 Dayton 20 26.4, 219 Drake 10 20.7
65% 175 Columbia 41 27.2, 222 Marist 17 21.7
65% 86 Richmond 41 26.2, 108 Albany 38 20.2
65% 52 Navy 48 35.1, 70 Air Force 45 30.0
64% 182 Nevada - Reno 35 32.3, 166 Hawaii 21 30.3
64% 129 Wofford 35 34.2, 103 Western Carolina 28 31.0
64% 117 Dartmouth 28 27.8, 115 Yale 27 24.3
64% 26 South Dakota 31 31.6, 34 Youngstown State 28 28.7
63% 242 Butler 44 33.9, 247 Morehead State 6 32.2
63% 32 Texas 40 29.8, 29 Kansas State 34 27.7
63% 22 Stanford 23 31.6, 49 Utah 20 29.0
62% 87 South Carolina 48 25.7, 66 Arkansas 22 24.2
59% 111 Mercer 24 29.7, 131 The Citadel 14 28.5
55% 101 Furman 41 31.4, 180 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 30.6
54% 228 Norfolk State 35 18.7, 226 Florida A&M 28 18.1
53% 104 Arkansas State 43 28.5, 136 Georgia Southern 25 28.0
51% 46 Western Illinois 38 29.4, 92 Northern Iowa 29 29.3
48% 173 Akron 31 29.2, 162 Ball State 3 29.4
46% 213 East Tennessee State 16 19.2, 220 Robert Morris 3 19.8
44% 71 Purdue 31 25.6, 48 Minnesota 17 26.5
43% 96 Syracuse 27 35.3, 72 Pittsburgh 24 36.1
41% 14 Miami - Florida 24 26.2, 18 Florida State 20 27.8
37% 36 North Carolina State 39 31.1, 24 Louisville 25 33.3
36% 229 Lafayette 14 30.0, 206 Fordham 10 33.0
36% 201 Tennessee State 45 20.6, 196 Eastern Kentucky 21 24.9
36% 170 Lehigh 41 30.4, 202 Colgate 38 33.0
36% 164 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 33.4, 154 Idaho 16 37.4
36% 157 Elon 25 18.4, 118 William & Mary 17 22.5
36% 130 Florida Atlantic 58 28.3, 149 Old Dominion 28 31.3
36% 127 Tulane 62 31.2, 88 Tulsa 28 33.9
36% 41 Louisiana State 17 18.6, 28 Florida 16 23.5
36% 23 Washington State 33 39.5, 21 Oregon 10 43.1
35% 151 Alabama - Birmingham 23 34.3, 93 Louisiana Tech 22 39.3
35% 122 Southern Mississippi 31 22.3, 95 Texas - San Antonio 29 28.9
34% 207 Central Connecticut 42 22.9, 126 Pennsylvania 21 36.7
34% 141 Delaware 24 12.1, 84 Stony Brook 20 22.5
34% 133 Monmouth 48 26.7, 116 Holy Cross 36 33.0
34% 67 Arizona 45 22.9, 56 Colorado 42 30.2
33% 132 Northern Arizona 37 21.2, 76 Illinois State 16 31.2
30% 83 Virginia 28 25.2, 31 Duke 21 33.1
28% 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 38 23.8, 252 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 31 34.7
26% 249 Stetson 17 19.6, 197 Brown 13 33.1
26% 185 Georgia State 27 18.5, 138 Coastal Carolina 21 33.7
22% 167 Central Michigan 26 25.3, 97 Ohio 23 37.6
14% 215 Bowling Green 37 19.0, 147 Miami - Ohio 29 32.4
13% 237 Presbyterian 26 9.9, 134 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 29.2
10% 223 Murray State 13 13.4, 148 Tennessee - Martin 10 35.4
9% 60 Michigan State 14 13.3, 10 Michigan 10 35.0
8% 214 Cornell 17 16.9, 112 Harvard 14 34.8
6% 59 Iowa State 38 24.9, 5 Oklahoma 31 48.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.91 45 0.92 19 1.06 16 1.02 21 0.87 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 78 82.4 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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