2017 Week 7 (11-14 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%  86 Central Arkansas        24 44.2,   242 Stephen F. Austin       20  9.7
 97%  46 Western Illinois        49 49.0,   223 Missouri State          30 13.4
 97%   4 Georgia                 53 45.8,   145 Missouri                28  7.2
 96% 140 San Diego               56 50.1,   252 Morehead State          27 11.8
 96%   1 Alabama                 41 47.1,    76 Arkansas                 9 10.4
 95%  85 Furman                  42 49.9,   248 Virginia Military       10 14.4
 95%  73 Sam Houston State       40 48.5,   221 Northwestern State      36 19.5
 95%  38 South Florida           33 47.7,   141 Cincinnati               3 22.1
 94% 119 Harvard                 38 35.3,   229 Lafayette               10  9.2
 94% 109 Southern Mississippi    24 39.6,   224 Texas - El Paso          0 14.8
 94%  23 Central Florida         63 54.2,   202 East Carolina           21 19.4
 94%  19 Mississippi State       35 39.1,   174 Brigham Young           10 13.4
 93%  98 Maine                   51 34.3,   184 Rhode Island            27 16.4
 93%  63 North Carolina A&T      31 37.4,   222 Florida A&M             20 14.5
 93%  24 South Dakota            56 50.0,   177 Indiana State            6 22.6
 93%   9 Oklahoma State          59 45.8,    79 Baylor                  16 23.1
 93%   3 Ohio State              56 38.6,    72 Nebraska                14 18.6
 92% 136 Western Kentucky        45 38.2,   238 North Carolina - Charl  14  9.9
 92%  57 Jacksonville State      41 37.1,   207 Eastern Kentucky        25  8.3
 92%  51 Colorado State          44 39.0,   163 Nevada - Reno           42 15.6
 92%  31 Iowa State              45 50.4,   193 Kansas                   0 21.2
 91% 240 Alabama A&M             49 37.1,   253 Mississippi Valley Sta  14 19.0
 90% 160 Southeast Louisiana     56 35.4,   243 Houston Baptist         10 20.4
 90%  60 Colorado                36 38.2,   179 Oregon State            33 19.7
 89% 172 Hawaii                  37 39.8,   233 San Jose State          26 23.9
 89% 161 Louisiana - Lafayette   24 41.1,   235 Texas State - San Marc   7 22.4
 89%  97 Montana                 41 40.8,   164 North Dakota            17 23.2
 89%  12 Wisconsin               17 37.4,    52 Purdue                   9 18.7
 87% 108 Western Carolina        49 42.3,   204 East Tennessee State    10 24.0
 86% 104 Mercer                  30 33.5,   195 Tennessee - Chattanoog  10 18.4
 83%   8 Oklahoma                29 41.6,    33 Texas                   24 28.4
 82% 120 Charleston Southern      7 32.6,   227 Presbyterian             0 17.1
 81%  65 Eastern Washington      31 41.6,   127 Montana State           19 27.7
 78% 159 Nicholls State          29 31.8,   220 Abilene Christian       20 18.3
 78% 111 Ohio                    48 37.8,   206 Bowling Green           30 26.3
 75%  75 Toledo                  30 40.3,   166 Central Michigan        10 30.1
 75%  61 Air Force               34 44.9,   123 Nevada - Las Vegas      30 31.2
 73% 100 Northern Arizona        42 38.1,   196 Portland State          20 25.4
 73%  89 Princeton               53 36.0,   199 Brown                    0 24.0
 73%  20 Southern California     28 32.5,    54 Utah                    27 19.9
 72% 187 Southeast Missouri Sta  31 27.3,   208 Tennessee Tech           3 17.9
 72% 148 Duquesne                51 27.8,   226 Robert Morris           14 16.8
 71%  15 James Madison           30 34.3,    35 Villanova                8 23.2
 68% 181 Lehigh                  54 39.0,   225 Georgetown              35 30.0
 68% 125 Marshall                35 33.6,   171 Old Dominion             3 22.7
 68%  81 Appalachian State       23 31.5,   180 Idaho                   20 20.6
 67% 246 Stetson                 28 29.9,   254 Davidson                17 17.4
 67% 232 Alabama State           23 21.8,   251 Texas Southern          16 13.2
 67% 197 Colgate                 38 30.3,   210 Fordham                 12 21.6
 67% 183 North Carolina Central  24 27.6,   209 Gardner - Webb          17 16.2
 67%  96 Yale                    32 37.8,   130 Holy Cross               0 27.9
 67%  94 Arkansas State          51 37.8,   154 Coastal Carolina        17 27.1
 67%  25 Stanford                49 39.6,    28 Oregon                   7 32.6
 67%  17 Michigan                27 30.3,    43 Indiana                 20 22.2
 67%  13 Miami - Florida         25 33.9,    27 Georgia Tech            24 22.4
 66% 170 Sacramento State        41 41.5,   194 Idaho State             21 36.0
 66% 168 Alcorn State            34 35.7,   188 Prairie View            21 28.9
 66% 113 Dartmouth               29 28.7,   173 Sacred Heart            26 21.7
 66% 101 Army                    28 26.1,   134 Eastern Michigan        27 19.0
 66%  83 Richmond                23 33.2,   175 Towson                   3 25.4
 66%  37 North Carolina State    35 34.5,    82 Pittsburgh              17 29.4
 66%  11 North Dakota State      27 26.3,    26 Youngstown State        24 18.0
 65% 245 Morgan State            48 22.0,   249 Savannah State          28 16.9
 65% 200 Eastern Illinois        27 26.8,   218 Murray State            24 21.4
 65% 185 Bucknell                26 25.5,   214 Cornell                 18 21.2
 65%  90 Northern Illinois       14 30.6,   126 Buffalo                 13 26.7
 64% 167 Saint Francis - Pennsy  30 27.6,   205 Bryant                  14 24.2
 64% 158 Alabama - Birmingham    25 33.3,   157 Middle Tennessee State  23 29.2
 64% 121 Delaware                17 20.5,   122 William & Mary           0 16.7
 64% 112 Fresno State            38 31.2,   118 New Mexico               0 27.5
 64%  84 Stony Brook             38 27.9,   124 New Hampshire           24 23.0
 64%  29 West Virginia           46 44.3,    22 Texas Tech              35 40.5
 63%  44 Arizona                 47 41.2,    49 California - Los Angel  30 38.6
 63%  21 Florida State           17 28.1,    41 Duke                    10 26.0
 63%  14 Texas Christian         26 31.1,    42 Kansas State             6 27.5
 62%  77 Mississippi             57 27.9,    69 Vanderbilt              35 26.1
 58%  59 Northwestern            37 31.6,    80 Maryland                21 30.3
 57% 192 Bethune - Cookman       12 21.5,   178 South Carolina State     9 20.4
 53% 234 Butler                  37 31.8,   216 Jacksonville            22 31.3
 53%  47 Michigan State          30 18.8,    64 Minnesota               27 18.1
 50% 153 Columbia                34 26.9,   142 Pennsylvania            31 26.9

 49% 217 Hampton                 16 20.7,   219 Norfolk State           14 21.0
 48% 128 Southern Illinois       42 26.8,    99 Illinois State           7 27.1
 48%  62 Memphis                 30 39.6,    50 Navy                    27 39.9
 39% 132 Wofford                 20 24.0,   131 The Citadel             16 26.1
 37% 239 Valparaiso              49 30.1,   231 Marist                  15 32.1
 37% 237 Howard                  52 26.9,   241 Delaware State          23 28.9
 37% 182 Central Connecticut     51 24.3,   213 Wagner                  45 27.4
 37% 162 Georgia State           47 28.2,   144 Northeast Louisiana     37 31.3
 37% 155 Austin Peay             21 24.9,   186 Tennessee State         17 27.5
 37%  68 Virginia                20 27.7,    71 North Carolina          14 31.0
 36% 203 Campbell                17 19.7,   211 Dayton                   7 24.1
 36% 149 Rutgers                 35 19.5,   152 Illinois                24 23.8
 36% 143 Southern Utah           32 25.6,   106 Weber State             16 30.3
 36% 138 Kennesaw State          42 28.8,   139 Liberty                 28 33.6
 36% 135 New Mexico State        35 30.3,   147 Georgia Southern        27 35.1
 36% 129 North Texas             29 27.4,    88 Texas - San Antonio     26 32.1
 35% 247 Incarnate Word          33 29.4,   236 Lamar                   24 36.5
 35% 137 Wyoming                 28 28.6,   115 Utah State              23 34.5
 35%  66 South Carolina          15 24.3,    67 Tennessee                9 28.7
 34% 215 Kent State              17 17.0,   156 Miami - Ohio            14 22.7
 34%  56 Boise State             31 22.1,    34 San Diego State         14 29.6
 34%  48 Texas A&M               19 26.5,    40 Florida                 17 33.0
 33%  53 Louisiana State         27 15.9,     6 Auburn                  23 26.2
 30%  70 California              37 27.9,    18 Washington State         3 37.4
 23% 114 Tulsa                   45 26.0,    45 Houston                 17 36.2
 17% 201 Connecticut             28 13.4,   117 Temple                  24 31.8
 15% 212 Florida International   23 17.8,    91 Tulane                  10 34.4
 14% 105 Boston College          45 17.8,    39 Louisville              42 35.7
 14%  92 Northern Iowa           38 22.2,    36 South Dakota State      18 38.1
 13% 176 South Alabama           19 15.9,    95 Troy State               8 32.7
 12% 151 Akron                   14 24.9,    55 Western Michigan        13 42.7
 10%  78 Arizona State           13 20.7,     7 Washington               7 40.8
  5%  87 Syracuse                27 17.1,     2 Clemson                 24 42.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 1.17  54 0.94  11 1.22  18 0.71  23 1.02   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114  81  84.8 0.96

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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