prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 55 South Dakota State 62 44.1, 213 Missouri State 30 17.0
97% 9 Texas Christian 43 55.7, 203 Kansas 0 10.1
97% 1 Alabama 45 45.0, 81 Tennessee 7 8.5
96% 135 Charleston Southern 52 41.7, 248 Savannah State 27 10.6
96% 90 Sam Houston State 63 55.1, 242 Lamar 27 20.0
95% 16 James Madison 46 39.5, 148 William & Mary 14 17.5
95% 12 Wisconsin 38 41.7, 99 Maryland 13 17.0
94% 101 Western Carolina 26 47.9, 250 Virginia Military 7 18.2
93% 150 McNeese State 55 46.4, 245 Incarnate Word 7 14.9
93% 97 Texas - San Antonio 20 39.3, 236 Rice 7 11.1
93% 72 North Carolina A&T 24 36.0, 188 Bethune - Cookman 20 14.6
91% 17 Virginia Tech 59 37.5, 84 North Carolina 7 15.8
90% 59 Jacksonville State 30 34.7, 200 Eastern Illinois 14 15.1
90% 14 Miami - Florida 27 38.8, 64 Syracuse 19 18.9
89% 105 Ohio 48 35.3, 209 Kent State 3 16.8
89% 52 Boise State 24 36.7, 142 Wyoming 14 17.2
89% 23 Mississippi State 45 38.2, 77 Kentucky 7 23.3
88% 13 North Dakota State 24 39.0, 50 Western Illinois 12 21.1
87% 87 Northern Illinois 48 36.7, 205 Bowling Green 17 21.2
86% 216 Dayton 48 31.1, 254 Davidson 22 11.9
86% 85 Southern Illinois 45 37.7, 198 Indiana State 24 22.8
86% 71 Toledo 48 37.6, 147 Akron 21 23.0
86% 65 Minnesota 24 29.4, 157 Illinois 17 13.7
85% 124 Kennesaw State 17 36.2, 208 Gardner - Webb 3 17.5
85% 7 Auburn 52 36.6, 70 Arkansas 20 19.2
84% 115 Central Arkansas 45 31.4, 207 Northwestern State 17 17.3
82% 34 South Florida 34 40.0, 132 Tulane 28 24.8
81% 95 Appalachian State 37 34.2, 180 Coastal Carolina 29 19.8
81% 83 Arkansas State 47 42.7, 160 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 26.2
78% 92 Northern Arizona 45 34.5, 130 California - Davis 31 25.0
75% 140 San Diego 63 37.8, 227 Jacksonville 10 24.1
75% 31 Washington State 28 32.3, 80 Colorado 0 20.3
74% 141 Southeast Louisiana 56 32.4, 218 Abilene Christian 21 23.8
74% 133 New Hampshire 40 30.8, 199 Towson 17 17.7
74% 4 Penn State 42 29.0, 18 Michigan 13 17.3
71% 8 Oklahoma 42 35.7, 47 Kansas State 35 26.6
69% 60 Southern Methodist 31 38.0, 151 Cincinnati 28 29.3
69% 48 Colorado State 27 33.8, 131 New Mexico 24 23.1
68% 233 Stephen F. Austin 27 28.6, 247 Houston Baptist 10 18.1
68% 181 Southern 35 30.8, 243 Jackson State 17 20.1
68% 173 Sacred Heart 21 26.9, 239 Robert Morris 14 17.8
68% 24 West Virginia 38 38.9, 98 Baylor 36 29.2
67% 214 Howard 39 34.0, 241 Morgan State 14 26.4
67% 153 Grambling 41 33.5, 161 Alcorn State 14 25.5
67% 134 Western Kentucky 35 30.4, 191 Old Dominion 31 20.7
67% 122 Duquesne 24 30.6, 171 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 21.4
67% 118 Monmouth 56 35.2, 159 Liberty 39 27.1
67% 66 Air Force 45 37.3, 154 Nevada - Reno 42 28.5
67% 10 Notre Dame 49 34.7, 22 Southern California 14 27.9
67% 3 Oklahoma State 13 39.1, 29 Texas 10 30.7
66% 168 Central Connecticut 31 38.4, 215 Bryant 14 30.7
66% 136 Montana State 27 36.5, 192 Northern Colorado 24 29.2
66% 128 Missouri 68 35.1, 177 Idaho 21 27.5
66% 68 Western Michigan 20 34.2, 123 Eastern Michigan 17 27.4
66% 25 Georgia Tech 38 29.5, 36 Wake Forest 24 21.9
66% 19 Central Florida 31 39.3, 56 Navy 21 31.9
65% 195 Bucknell 13 23.3, 230 Lafayette 7 19.0
65% 158 South Alabama 33 35.7, 152 Northeast Louisiana 23 30.4
65% 103 Marshall 38 27.8, 169 Middle Tennessee State 10 22.9
65% 102 Army 31 26.2, 139 Temple 28 21.8
65% 93 Furman 28 36.2, 108 Mercer 21 32.3
65% 63 Yale 24 35.5, 149 Pennsylvania 19 27.3
64% 220 Hampton 31 23.4, 217 Florida A&M 27 19.2
64% 193 Idaho State 59 37.1, 206 Portland State 30 33.1
64% 170 Massachusetts 55 31.7, 162 Georgia Southern 20 27.8
64% 44 Michigan State 17 27.6, 38 Indiana 9 24.1
63% 155 Austin Peay 38 25.3, 167 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 22.6
63% 121 Weber State 17 27.7, 172 California Poly 3 24.9
63% 112 Troy State 34 24.1, 146 Georgia State 10 19.9
63% 106 Florida Atlantic 69 37.9, 116 North Texas 31 34.4
62% 145 The Citadel 20 24.8, 197 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 22.8
60% 54 California - Los Angel 31 42.3, 40 Oregon 14 40.9
60% 41 Louisiana State 40 33.3, 57 Mississippi 24 31.8
58% 78 Maine 12 23.6, 104 Albany 10 22.5
56% 107 Delaware 42 25.5, 79 Richmond 35 24.4
56% 76 Princeton 52 28.6, 117 Harvard 17 27.6
51% 212 Cornell 34 25.8, 219 Brown 7 25.6
48% 143 Elon 35 22.5, 175 Rhode Island 34 22.7
46% 138 Sacramento State 34 31.5, 179 North Dakota 27 32.2
46% 35 Arizona 45 33.5, 51 California 44 34.1
44% 223 Drake 19 25.8, 238 Marist 14 26.6
42% 211 Fordham 17 27.5, 231 Georgetown 9 28.6
37% 176 Central Michigan 56 25.6, 185 Ball State 9 28.0
37% 125 Utah State 52 35.1, 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 38.4
37% 119 Samford 24 23.8, 127 Wofford 21 26.6
37% 53 Northwestern 17 21.7, 33 Iowa 10 24.3
36% 202 Eastern Kentucky 31 19.4, 166 Tennessee - Martin 21 23.9
36% 165 Miami - Ohio 24 25.1, 113 Buffalo 14 28.9
35% 232 Butler 37 21.5, 189 Campbell 23 26.7
35% 184 Colgate 45 20.2, 144 Holy Cross 7 25.7
35% 110 Southern Utah 46 32.2, 73 Eastern Washington 28 37.5
35% 67 Northern Iowa 19 22.1, 30 Youngstown State 14 27.2
35% 62 Memphis 42 25.9, 74 Houston 38 30.9
35% 26 Iowa State 31 38.4, 28 Texas Tech 13 42.2
34% 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 53 23.4, 247 Houston Baptist 5 30.2
34% 252 Morehead State 29 28.6, 244 Stetson 26 33.9
34% 137 Columbia 22 19.3, 120 Dartmouth 17 25.2
33% 187 Connecticut 20 31.0, 96 Tulsa 14 40.5
33% 114 Southern Mississippi 34 24.0, 100 Louisiana Tech 27 31.2
33% 91 Boston College 41 21.4, 61 Virginia 10 29.1
32% 225 Norfolk State 28 15.6, 190 North Carolina Central 21 28.7
32% 201 East Carolina 33 23.4, 156 Brigham Young 17 31.8
31% 111 Illinois State 37 26.0, 21 South Dakota 21 36.3
31% 75 Fresno State 27 18.9, 43 San Diego State 3 30.3
27% 129 Rutgers 14 19.9, 37 Purdue 12 31.3
25% 69 Arizona State 30 22.6, 39 Utah 10 35.3
22% 237 North Carolina - Charl 25 22.2, 163 Alabama - Birmingham 24 35.4
18% 49 Louisville 31 25.3, 20 Florida State 28 37.9
17% 88 Pittsburgh 24 21.9, 42 Duke 17 33.2
13% 246 Delaware State 17 10.3, 178 South Carolina State 14 29.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.90 58 0.95 10 0.94 19 0.98 13 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 77 79.6 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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