2017 Week 10 (31 Oct - 4 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97% 102 Sam Houston State       57 61.7,   247 Incarnate Word          20 21.3
 96%  74 Jacksonville State      59 40.7,   227 Murray State            23  8.5
 96%  23 James Madison           38 43.8,   150 Rhode Island             3 18.9
 95% 104 Central Arkansas        42 44.6,   249 Lamar                   14 13.1
 95%  69 San Diego State         52 39.4,   216 San Jose State           7 11.5
 95%  65 Youngstown State        66 39.4,   213 Indiana State           24 12.8
 95%  53 Yale                    34 39.6,   234 Brown                    7  8.8
 94% 186 Nicholls State          23 38.7,   254 Houston Baptist         17  6.2
 94% 121 San Diego               45 36.8,   233 Drake                   15 10.4
 94% 106 Monmouth                42 39.4,   237 Presbyterian            21 12.5
 94%  98 Troy State              24 38.2,   208 Idaho                   21 15.0
 94%  14 Mississippi State       34 45.4,   132 Massachusetts           23 17.9
 93% 182 Tennessee State         60 37.8,   254 Houston Baptist          0  3.2
 93% 175 Bethune - Cookman       41 35.3,   241 Morgan State            28 13.1
 92% 196 Campbell                42 37.6,   253 Davidson                29 16.3
 92% 140 Grambling               31 45.9,   243 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   26 19.3
 92%  91 North Carolina A&T      35 37.4,   231 Norfolk State            7 13.9
 92%  50 California              37 43.7,   161 Oregon State            23 22.1
 92%  35 South Florida           37 45.8,   212 Connecticut             20 18.5
 92%   1 Alabama                 24 36.7,    29 Louisiana State         10 10.2
 91% 164 California Poly         35 39.4,   218 Portland State          28 23.2
 91%  76 Houston                 52 40.1,   174 East Carolina           27 17.1
 91%   5 Notre Dame              48 38.6,    31 Wake Forest             37 20.2
 91%   4 Georgia                 24 35.7,    54 South Carolina          10 11.8
 90% 202 Dayton                  36 30.2,   240 Marist                  17 16.1
 90% 180 Alcorn State            47 35.3,   235 Alabama A&M             22 18.4
 90%  57 Boise State             41 38.6,   134 Nevada - Reno           14 19.4
 89%  37 Purdue                  29 33.3,   142 Illinois                10 13.9
 89%  12 Washington              38 37.1,    47 Oregon                   3 20.3
 88% 166 Alabama - Birmingham    52 37.4,   219 Rice                    21 20.8
 88% 119 Eastern Michigan        56 35.2,   220 Ball State              14 15.2
 87% 172 Middle Tennessee State  30 31.6,   224 Texas - El Paso          3 15.9
 87% 131 Dartmouth               10 31.0,   189 Cornell                  0 17.0
 87%  82 Arkansas                39 45.2,   200 Coastal Carolina        38 23.9
 86%  43 Toledo                  27 39.5,    86 Northern Illinois       17 28.3
 85%  95 Southern Utah           47 36.9,   176 North Dakota            21 21.2
 84% 117 Baylor                  38 39.1,   198 Kansas                   9 25.7
 83%  60 Fresno State            20 30.7,   169 Brigham Young           13 13.0
 82% 211 East Tennessee State    24 28.4,   251 Virginia Military        6 12.9
 82%  11 Central Florida         31 46.1,    64 Southern Methodist      24 32.8
 81%  26 Michigan                33 27.5,    80 Minnesota               10 13.1
 79%   6 Clemson                 38 31.0,    28 North Carolina State    31 19.0
 78% 144 New Mexico State        45 35.6,   225 Texas State - San Marc  35 24.2
 78%  94 Tennessee               24 29.6,   153 Southern Mississippi    10 17.0
 77% 187 Old Dominion             6 33.0,   238 North Carolina - Charl   0 19.4
 76% 205 Butler                  23 31.7,   250 Stetson                  6 19.4
 75%  90 Ohio                    45 38.8,   159 Miami - Ohio            28 25.3
 75%   8 Auburn                  42 34.3,    38 Texas A&M               27 23.2
 74% 118 Nevada - Las Vegas      31 39.4,   177 Hawaii                  23 29.9
 71% 112 Elon                    33 26.0,   195 Towson                  30 13.8
 70%  15 Wisconsin               45 30.8,    49 Indiana                 17 21.4
 69% 147 Charleston Southern     10 29.3,   223 Gardner - Webb           9 18.2
 69% 146 Wofford                 24 27.2,   183 Tennessee - Chattanoog  21 17.6
 68% 217 Wagner                  27 23.2,   239 Robert Morris            7 12.7
 68% 145 Sacramento State        50 41.1,   190 Northern Colorado       21 30.7
 68%  13 Texas Christian         24 28.4,    21 Texas                    7 18.0
 67%  96 Vanderbilt              31 31.9,   156 Western Kentucky        17 21.3
 67%  87 Stony Brook             28 23.7,   135 Albany                  21 13.6
 67%  44 Memphis                 41 46.8,   114 Tulsa                   14 39.9
 66% 209 Northwestern State      26 27.8,   229 Abilene Christian       23 20.6
 66% 139 Austin Peay             35 30.3,   214 Tennessee Tech          28 22.7
 66% 127 California - Davis      56 38.3,   173 Idaho State             17 31.7
 66%  67 Florida Atlantic        30 37.2,   103 Marshall                25 29.9
 66%  56 Florida State           27 30.6,    48 Syracuse                24 23.0
 66%  25 Southern California     49 39.5,    24 Arizona                 35 34.3
 65% 167 Holy Cross              42 31.9,   210 Fordham                 20 27.6
 65%  68 Arizona State           41 29.7,    77 Colorado                30 24.7
 64% 193 Southern                37 34.8,   194 Prairie View            31 31.8
 63% 242 Savannah State          35 26.7,   245 Delaware State          21 25.1
 63% 228 Alabama State           13 19.2,   244 Jackson State            3 15.7
 63% 199 Eastern Illinois        23 27.2,   185 Eastern Kentucky        20 24.4
 63% 158 McNeese State           13 33.2,   143 Southeast Louisiana      3 30.6
 63% 128 Western Carolina        31 30.7,   171 The Citadel             19 27.7
 62% 100 Montana                 17 35.7,    62 Northern Arizona        15 33.7
 62%  75 Utah                    48 31.6,    40 California - Los Angel  17 29.9
 61% 163 Georgia State           21 27.5,   197 Georgia Southern        17 25.4
 61% 122 Utah State              24 29.1,   162 New Mexico              10 27.6
 60% 226 Jacksonville            20 41.3,   221 Valparaiso              17 39.7
 58%  42 Northwestern            31 27.7,    84 Nebraska                24 26.6
 55% 165 Central Connecticut     28 25.2,   179 Saint Francis - Pennsy  10 24.6
 54% 129 New Hampshire           35 22.7,   152 William & Mary          16 22.2
 53% 248 Texas Southern          38 28.8,   246 Mississippi Valley Sta  21 28.4
 52%  27 West Virginia           20 31.5,    16 Iowa State              16 31.3
 51% 130 Kennesaw State          16 24.1,   141 Montana State           14 23.8

 48%  81 Mississippi             37 34.6,    88 Kentucky                34 34.9
 47% 105 Rutgers                 31 29.1,    89 Maryland                24 29.5
 44% 191 North Carolina Central  14 22.1,   207 Hampton                  6 22.8
 42% 137 Harvard                 21 22.8,   125 Columbia                14 24.1
 42%  78 Missouri                45 29.7,    52 Florida                 16 31.2
 41% 203 Bowling Green           44 21.7,   222 Kent State              16 23.1
 41%  33 Washington State        24 27.4,    20 Stanford                21 28.6
 38% 192 Howard                  37 31.0,   215 Florida A&M             26 32.8
 38% 188 Lehigh                  42 35.3,   201 Bucknell                21 37.0
 37% 206 Bryant                  48 31.1,   184 Sacred Heart            45 33.4
 37% 170 Tennessee - Martin      16 18.1,   154 Southeast Missouri Sta  14 20.9
 37%  22 Miami - Florida         28 22.7,     9 Virginia Tech           10 25.5
 36% 230 Lafayette                7 18.6,   236 Georgetown               0 22.4
 36% 149 Cincinnati              17 21.7,   138 Tulane                  16 27.0
 36% 111 Delaware                31 19.9,    72 Maine                   17 23.7
 36% 110 Wyoming                 16 26.1,    73 Colorado State          13 30.5
 36%  55 Western Illinois        31 25.3,    59 Illinois State          14 29.1
 36%  30 South Dakota State      33 26.9,    17 North Dakota State      21 31.1
 35% 133 Samford                 20 24.8,   113 Mercer                   3 29.8
 35%  51 Northern Iowa           34 29.2,    19 South Dakota            29 35.0
 34% 178 Louisiana - Lafayette   19 23.7,   160 South Alabama           14 31.2
 34% 157 Liberty                 27 29.0,   115 Duquesne                24 36.2
 34% 155 Northeast Louisiana     52 29.6,   108 Appalachian State       45 37.9
 34% 124 Temple                  34 26.3,    46 Navy                    26 31.3
 34%  45 Kansas State            42 32.7,    34 Texas Tech              35 38.6
 34%  10 Oklahoma                62 34.7,     7 Oklahoma State          52 40.4
 33% 148 Pennsylvania            38 28.7,    71 Princeton               35 36.8
 33% 107 Army                    21 30.5,    58 Air Force                0 39.6
 33% 101 Weber State             28 26.9,    85 Eastern Washington      20 34.7
 32% 168 Florida International   14 18.9,   109 Texas - San Antonio      7 28.4
 31% 136 North Texas             24 34.0,   116 Louisiana Tech          23 44.2
 29%  93 Richmond                22 23.2,    61 Villanova                0 34.0
 20% 126 Central Michigan        35 26.1,    83 Western Michigan        28 37.6
 16%  36 Iowa                    55 19.0,     2 Ohio State              24 34.6
 14%  39 Michigan State          27 17.7,     3 Penn State              24 33.1
 12%  99 Virginia                40 22.0,    18 Georgia Tech            36 35.4
  6% 181 Missouri State          36 21.1,    92 Southern Illinois       28 42.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               13 0.84  52 0.83  11 1.08  19 0.98  26 1.03   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 121  84  90.1 0.93

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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