2017 Week 12 (14-18 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97% 117 Sam Houston State       53 58.6,   254 Houston Baptist         33  7.4
 97%  97 Eastern Washington      59 53.2,   221 Portland State          33 24.4
 97%  79 Arkansas State          30 43.8,   207 Texas State - San Marc  12 16.2
 97%  48 Florida State           77 48.1,   241 Delaware State           6  7.3
 97%   8 Clemson                 61 44.2,   190 The Citadel              3  5.1
 97%   5 Oklahoma                41 57.6,   197 Kansas                   3 17.1
 97%   3 Ohio State              52 48.9,   135 Illinois                14 10.0
 97%   2 Auburn                  42 59.2,   154 Northeast Louisiana     14 15.1
 96%  94 San Diego               35 47.3,   242 Marist                   7 12.1
 96%  88 Colorado State          42 50.4,   230 San Jose State          14 19.6
 96%  45 Northern Iowa           41 49.2,   227 Indiana State            3 11.7
 96%  10 Miami - Florida         44 40.1,    87 Virginia                28 13.5
 96%   1 Alabama                 56 42.9,   124 Mercer                   0  5.4
 95%  78 Weber State             35 42.8,   188 Idaho State              7 18.6
 95%   9 Notre Dame              24 45.4,    71 Navy                    17 23.4
 95%   6 Georgia                 42 42.2,    83 Kentucky                13 14.8
 95%   4 Penn State              56 46.3,    98 Nebraska                44 15.7
 94%  52 Youngstown State        38 41.1,   163 Missouri State          10 15.5
 93% 149 McNeese State           13 39.4,   248 Lamar                    3 14.0
 93% 100 Central Arkansas        34 40.9,   220 Abilene Christian        0 12.6
 93%  14 Virginia Tech           20 38.0,    82 Pittsburgh              14 14.7
 92%  57 Richmond                27 36.2,   182 William & Mary          20 15.0
 92%  44 South Florida           27 47.0,   128 Tulsa                   20 29.3
 92%  11 Washington              33 31.6,    59 Utah                    30 11.5
 91% 168 Lehigh                  38 41.9,   239 Lafayette               31 24.6
 91% 131 Central Connecticut     42 38.0,   245 Robert Morris           14 11.5
 91% 101 Central Michigan        42 33.8,   233 Kent State              23 13.4
 91%  35 Boston College          39 36.3,   189 Connecticut             16 11.4
 90% 133 Columbia                24 29.7,   224 Brown                    6  9.8
 90% 105 North Carolina A&T      24 32.6,   195 North Carolina Central  10 14.5
 90%  65 Toledo                  66 43.4,   178 Bowling Green           37 25.9
 90%  51 Florida Atlantic        52 42.5,   164 Florida International   24 22.1
 90%  38 Boise State             44 42.2,   127 Air Force               19 22.3
 89% 225 Alabama State           16 32.9,   252 Mississippi Valley Sta  10 15.4
 89%  26 James Madison           31 35.5,   130 Elon                     3 15.7
 89%  20 Stanford                17 35.2,    58 California              14 20.3
 88% 159 Southern Mississippi    66 31.9,   226 North Carolina - Charl  21 12.7
 88% 143 Louisiana Tech          42 35.4,   235 Texas - El Paso         21 18.7
 88%  99 Colgate                 35 29.2,   244 Georgetown              10  8.7
 87% 125 Pennsylvania            29 32.2,   194 Cornell                 22 17.6
 87%  62 San Diego State         42 36.4,   132 Nevada - Reno           23 19.7
 87%  40 Michigan State          17 36.8,   102 Maryland                 7 21.2
 86% 179 Tennessee - Chattanoog  10 29.9,   222 East Tennessee State     3 15.5
 86% 162 Southeast Missouri Sta  21 32.8,   219 Murray State            10 17.4
 86%  77 Jacksonville State      36 34.6,   150 Tennessee State          6 18.2
 86%  18 Central Florida         45 37.6,   103 Temple                  19 22.4
 85% 119 Utah State              38 38.0,   171 Hawaii                   0 24.8
 85%  53 Yale                    24 32.7,   151 Harvard                  3 15.5
 84% 134 Buffalo                 40 39.0,   232 Ball State              24 22.6
 84%  16 Mississippi State       28 39.4,   115 Arkansas                21 25.0
 83% 196 Prairie View            42 44.1,   247 Incarnate Word          28 26.0
 83%  49 South Carolina          31 32.6,   155 Wofford                 10 15.7
 81%  39 Western Illinois        28 37.9,   112 Southern Illinois       14 23.6
 80%  25 Louisiana State         30 29.5,   116 Tennessee               10 16.9
 80%  23 Southern California     28 43.7,    64 California - Los Angel  23 30.7
 80%  17 Iowa State              23 34.9,   108 Baylor                  13 19.9
 78%  61 Arizona State           40 38.5,   136 Oregon State            24 28.3
 77%  12 North Dakota State      20 29.3,    55 Illinois State           7 16.2
 74%  84 Florida                 36 34.4,   139 Alabama - Birmingham     7 20.9
 73% 216 Drake                   52 33.6,   240 Jacksonville             7 22.8
 73% 183 Old Dominion            24 34.1,   215 Rice                    21 23.5
 73% 148 Southeast Louisiana     21 36.3,   203 Nicholls State          17 23.9
 72%  13 Wisconsin               24 27.3,    24 Michigan                10 17.2
 70%  43 Memphis                 66 46.6,    60 Southern Methodist      45 38.0
 69% 176 Bethune - Cookman       29 29.1,   212 Florida A&M             24 19.8
 67% 141 Austin Peay             28 32.0,   199 Eastern Illinois        13 23.2
 67%  75 Northern Illinois       35 36.9,    92 Western Michigan        31 28.9
 67%  66 Indiana                 41 30.2,    91 Rutgers                  0 22.2
 67%  36 Northwestern            39 28.2,    69 Minnesota                0 19.5
 67%  15 Texas Christian         27 35.7,    41 Texas Tech               3 27.4
 66% 172 Tennessee - Martin      24 23.8,   210 Tennessee Tech           0 15.9
 66% 160 Western Kentucky        41 28.2,   167 Middle Tennessee State  38 22.0
 66% 104 Eastern Michigan        27 28.0,   158 Miami - Ohio            24 21.6
 66%  42 Louisville              56 41.5,    46 Syracuse                10 34.9
 66%  34 Missouri                45 39.2,   122 Vanderbilt              17 30.8
 65% 251 Morehead State          21 38.4,   253 Davidson                14 33.5
 65% 206 Fordham                 20 26.8,   218 Bucknell                 9 22.1
 64% 217 Northwestern State      38 26.4,   236 Stephen F. Austin       21 22.3
 64% 109 Kennesaw State          52 31.4,   113 Monmouth                21 27.5
 64%  93 Sacramento State        52 36.8,   120 California - Davis      47 32.5
 64%  37 Texas A&M               31 40.6,    70 Mississippi             24 37.5
 64%  21 Wake Forest             30 32.6,    31 North Carolina State    24 28.6
 63% 142 Nevada - Las Vegas      38 29.7,   198 New Mexico              35 27.3
 63% 114 Villanova               28 17.4,    86 Delaware                 7 14.9
 63%  73 Southern Utah           48 32.1,    68 Northern Arizona        20 29.4
 62% 110 North Carolina          65 31.3,   123 Western Carolina        10 29.0
 62%  81 Stony Brook             20 27.0,   106 Maine                   19 25.1
 61% 166 Towson                  29 24.7,   147 Rhode Island            10 23.0
 59% 174 Eastern Kentucky        14 20.9,   200 Saint Francis - Pennsy  10 19.4
 56% 191 Charleston Southern     20 28.3,   161 Liberty                 19 27.5
 55%  56 Oregon                  48 41.4,    28 Arizona                 28 40.9
 54% 214 Hampton                 20 28.4,   185 Howard                  17 27.8
 53%  89 Massachusetts           16 27.2,   140 Brigham Young           10 26.8
 52% 228 Norfolk State           45 26.2,   234 Morgan State            32 25.9

 48% 229 Presbyterian            31 18.7,   223 Gardner - Webb          21 19.1
 47% 181 Coastal Carolina        13 32.0,   193 Idaho                    7 32.5
 47%  22 South Dakota State      31 35.3,    32 South Dakota            28 35.7
 44% 144 Texas - San Antonio      9 22.9,    95 Marshall                 7 23.8
 43% 246 Texas Southern          24 28.5,   238 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   10 29.6
 41% 173 East Carolina           48 31.8,   157 Cincinnati              20 33.2
 41%  80 Fresno State            13 19.4,    90 Wyoming                  7 21.0
 38% 187 Louisiana - Lafayette   47 33.3,   153 New Mexico State        34 34.9
 37% 156 Albany                  15 19.8,   111 New Hampshire            0 22.5
 36% 211 Valparaiso               8 25.9,   205 Dayton                   7 30.6
 36% 204 Georgia Southern        52 21.9,   169 South Alabama            0 25.3
 36% 201 Northern Colorado       42 28.2,   186 California Poly          0 30.7
 36% 138 Montana State           31 25.9,    96 Montana                 23 28.9
 36% 118 Samford                 26 28.1,    63 Furman                  20 31.1
 36%  29 Texas                   28 26.8,    30 West Virginia           14 29.9
 35% 137 Dartmouth               54 27.2,    76 Princeton               44 32.0
 34% 126 North Texas             52 28.1,    74 Army                    49 35.5
 33% 231 Savannah State          34 17.6,   202 South Carolina State    10 28.0
 33% 208 Wagner                  28 23.2,   177 Sacred Heart            15 32.2
 33% 145 Tulane                  20 17.7,    67 Houston                 17 27.8
 33%  47 Purdue                  24 17.2,    27 Iowa                    15 26.2
 31% 165 Akron                   37 24.6,    54 Ohio                    34 34.2
 30% 192 Bryant                  38 28.3,   129 Duquesne                29 37.8
 30%  72 Duke                    43 20.4,    19 Georgia Tech            20 29.2
 12% 243 Jackson State            7 15.4,   146 Alcorn State             3 31.8
  9%  50 Kansas State            45 25.3,     7 Oklahoma State          40 44.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               13 0.84  39 0.95  12 1.12  25 1.11  31 1.03   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 120  94  92.2 1.02

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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