prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 8 Oklahoma State 58 60.3, 190 Kansas 17 17.1
94% 110 Troy State 62 36.8, 206 Texas State - San Marc 9 12.9
93% 67 San Diego State 35 35.3, 185 New Mexico 10 12.2
93% 32 Memphis 70 57.5, 162 East Carolina 13 31.7
92% 48 Oregon 69 44.3, 139 Oregon State 10 22.8
92% 44 Florida Atlantic 31 48.4, 234 North Carolina - Charl 12 18.9
92% 35 South Dakota 38 41.8, 201 Nicholls State 31 18.1
92% 13 Texas Christian 45 37.4, 101 Baylor 22 9.9
92% 6 Penn State 66 44.2, 95 Maryland 3 22.0
91% 159 Alabama - Birmingham 28 36.9, 236 Texas - El Paso 7 16.5
90% 5 Oklahoma 59 46.5, 40 West Virginia 31 28.1
89% 154 Akron 24 30.3, 230 Kent State 14 10.6
88% 30 Northwestern 42 32.4, 136 Illinois 7 15.9
88% 16 Virginia Tech 10 34.3, 86 Virginia 0 19.2
88% 10 Wisconsin 31 32.5, 92 Minnesota 0 14.8
87% 15 Central Florida 49 40.7, 58 South Florida 42 27.4
86% 114 Eastern Michigan 34 38.8, 177 Bowling Green 31 23.9
84% 72 Stony Brook 59 47.5, 174 Lehigh 29 29.8
83% 7 Clemson 34 29.3, 54 South Carolina 10 15.4
82% 45 Northern Iowa 46 39.0, 122 Monmouth 7 24.2
80% 14 Washington 41 32.5, 36 Washington State 14 20.3
77% 112 North Texas 30 45.8, 212 Rice 14 31.6
76% 199 Prairie View 30 33.0, 244 Texas Southern 16 21.0
76% 60 Toledo 37 43.6, 98 Western Michigan 10 33.7
76% 28 North Carolina State 33 34.9, 76 North Carolina 21 22.2
74% 156 Miami - Ohio 28 35.9, 232 Ball State 7 23.2
73% 144 Grambling 30 36.8, 188 Southern 21 27.8
70% 70 Southern Methodist 41 38.4, 140 Tulane 38 29.1
68% 143 New Mexico State 17 36.7, 205 Idaho 10 27.7
68% 52 Utah 34 30.5, 74 Colorado 13 21.5
67% 169 Middle Tennessee State 41 30.9, 196 Old Dominion 10 21.7
67% 84 Arkansas State 67 41.5, 133 Northeast Louisiana 50 32.3
67% 50 Michigan State 40 25.3, 119 Rutgers 7 15.5
67% 31 Iowa 56 33.5, 87 Nebraska 14 26.0
67% 27 Louisiana State 45 31.9, 37 Texas A&M 21 24.0
67% 24 Missouri 48 44.2, 108 Arkansas 45 34.5
67% 22 Louisville 44 38.8, 79 Kentucky 17 31.1
67% 4 Georgia 38 32.2, 26 Georgia Tech 7 24.3
66% 176 Cincinnati 22 28.6, 182 Connecticut 21 22.2
66% 146 Brigham Young 30 25.8, 194 Hawaii 20 18.6
66% 121 New Hampshire 14 32.7, 123 Central Connecticut 0 26.1
66% 117 Appalachian State 31 26.3, 168 Georgia State 10 20.5
66% 83 Kennesaw State 28 27.0, 111 Samford 17 18.8
66% 73 Furman 28 30.7, 132 Elon 27 24.5
66% 2 Ohio State 31 33.0, 29 Michigan 20 25.1
65% 131 Nevada - Reno 23 39.1, 137 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 34.6
64% 43 Purdue 31 26.7, 46 Indiana 24 22.5
64% 38 Boston College 42 29.9, 66 Syracuse 14 26.2
63% 148 Louisiana Tech 20 25.0, 145 Texas - San Antonio 6 22.1
62% 106 San Diego 41 31.1, 90 Northern Arizona 10 28.5
62% 63 California - Los Angel 30 34.9, 62 California 27 33.0
60% 82 Houston 24 26.9, 55 Navy 14 25.4
53% 104 Temple 43 30.3, 128 Tulsa 22 29.9
49% 47 Florida State 38 21.7, 80 Florida 22 21.8
47% 61 Arizona State 42 40.0, 41 Arizona 30 40.4
45% 166 Florida International 41 29.4, 163 Western Kentucky 17 30.0
41% 42 Kansas State 20 25.2, 19 Iowa State 19 26.6
40% 23 Stanford 38 26.2, 12 Notre Dame 20 27.6
39% 126 Air Force 38 30.5, 91 Utah State 35 32.0
38% 3 Auburn 26 23.2, 1 Alabama 14 25.3
37% 171 Georgia Southern 34 31.2, 181 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 33.3
37% 109 Central Michigan 31 27.4, 78 Northern Illinois 24 30.3
37% 75 Weber State 21 23.2, 39 Western Illinois 19 25.9
34% 134 Vanderbilt 42 20.9, 118 Tennessee 24 28.6
34% 129 Buffalo 31 31.9, 64 Ohio 24 37.7
34% 81 Fresno State 28 21.7, 34 Boise State 17 28.6
33% 138 Southern Mississippi 28 22.1, 102 Marshall 27 30.4
33% 57 Duke 31 22.8, 21 Wake Forest 23 31.5
19% 56 Texas Tech 27 23.5, 25 Texas 23 35.8
13% 71 Pittsburgh 24 18.2, 9 Miami - Florida 14 34.2
12% 69 Mississippi 31 26.2, 17 Mississippi State 28 42.0
7% 229 San Jose State 20 13.4, 89 Wyoming 17 40.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.30 34 1.08 7 1.34 14 0.92 11 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 72 53 52.9 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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