16 Sep 2018: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2018 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  4  14  9.2  7.3 Alabama                 
  2  5  12  9.6  6.3 Ohio State              
  3  7  12  9.4  6.3 Penn State              
  4 22  12  9.9  5.8 Oklahoma                
  5  6  11  8.6  6.9 Clemson                 
  6  6  11  8.8  6.7 Georgia                 
  7 39  10  8.6  6.7 Auburn                  
  8  7  10  8.4  6.8 Washington              
  9  9  10  9.6  5.7 Oklahoma State          
 10 11   9  8.4  6.6 Texas Christian         
 11  9   8  8.2  6.7 Louisiana State         
 12  9   9  8.6  6.4 Mississippi State       
 13  9   9  8.6  6.3 Miami - Florida         
 14 54   8  8.1  6.7 Virginia Tech           
 15 10   8  8.3  6.6 Wisconsin               
 16 24   9  9.2  5.7 Central Florida         
 17 22   8  8.3  6.4 Stanford                
 18 47   7  8.0  6.5 Iowa                    
 19 32   7  8.1  6.4 Michigan                
 20 33   7  9.5  5.1 Memphis                 
 21 24   7  8.4  6.0 Notre Dame              
 22 12   7  8.9  5.5 Texas A&M               
 23 19   7  8.7  5.7 Boise State             
 24 83   6  8.0  6.3 Iowa State              
 25 26   6  8.4  5.9 Washington State        
 26 42   6  8.3  5.9 North Carolina State    
 27 27   6  8.7  5.5 West Virginia           
 28 32   6  8.0  6.2 Texas                   
 29 36   6  8.0  6.2 Duke                    
 30 32   6  8.2  5.9 Boston College          
 31 35   6  8.2  5.9 Southern California     
 32 26   6  9.1  5.0 Missouri                
 33 41   5  8.3  5.7 Georgia Tech            
 34 56   5  7.8  6.2 Michigan State          
 35 53   5  8.5  5.5 Wake Forest             
 36 70   5  8.6  5.4 Louisville              
 37 38   5  7.7  6.2 Utah                    
 38 26   5  8.1  5.9 Kansas State            
 39 19   5  8.7  5.3 Oregon                  
 40 50   5  9.2  4.8 Texas Tech              
 41 31   5  8.7  5.3 South Florida           
 42 21   5  7.8  6.1 Florida                 
 43 64   5  8.8  5.0 Mississippi             
 44 79   4  7.6  6.1 Florida State           
 45 34   5  8.7  5.1 Syracuse                
 46 46   4  8.2  5.6 Indiana                 
 47 73   4  7.9  5.8 Northwestern            
 48 29   4  8.1  5.7 Houston                 
 49 47   4  7.7  6.0 South Carolina          
 50 47   4  7.9  5.8 Fresno State            
 51 31   4  8.4  5.3 Arizona State           
 52 21   4  7.9  5.8 Appalachian State       
 53 32   4  7.9  5.7 Colorado                
 54 54   4  8.2  5.5 Navy                    
 55 40   4  7.7  5.9 San Diego State         
 56 89   4  8.9  4.6 Hawaii                  
 57 59   4  8.0  5.6 California              
 58 68   4  7.7  5.8 Purdue                  
 59 26   3  8.8  4.7 Arizona                 
 60 40   3  7.3  6.2 Minnesota               
 61 52   3  7.7  5.7 Temple                  
 62 33   3  7.8  5.6 Kentucky                
 63 41   3  8.4  5.0 Toledo                  
 64 30   3  7.6  5.8 Vanderbilt              
 65 55   3  7.7  5.7 Army                    
 66 48   3  7.9  5.5 Pittsburgh              
 67 53   3  8.1  5.2 California - Los Angeles
 68 42   2  7.8  5.4 Virginia                
 69 33   3  8.1  5.1 Baylor                  
 70 49   2  8.2  5.0 Ohio                    
 71 60   2  7.7  5.5 Troy State              
 72 76   2  8.3  4.9 Florida Atlantic        
 73 50   2  8.0  5.2 Arkansas State          
 74 74   2  7.7  5.4 North Carolina          
 75 39   2  8.1  5.1 Utah State              
 76 60   2  8.4  4.7 North Texas             
 77 32   2  8.0  5.1 Louisiana Tech          
 78 34   2  7.4  5.7 Tennessee               
 79 55   2  8.1  5.0 Nebraska                
 80 42   2  8.0  5.0 Air Force               
 81 41   2  8.3  4.7 Western Michigan        
 82 43   2  8.0  5.0 Maryland                
 83 43   1  8.0  4.8 Tulsa                   
 84 68   1  7.5  5.3 Eastern Michigan        
 85 58   1  8.0  4.9 Arkansas                
 86 71   1  7.3  5.5 Northern Illinois       
 87 34   1  6.9  5.9 Brigham Young           
 88 39   1  7.5  5.2 Marshall                
 89 65   1  7.7  5.0 Buffalo                 
 90 69   1  8.2  4.5 Southern Methodist      
 91 58   0  8.1  4.5 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 92 41   0  7.4  5.1 Southern Mississippi    
 93 39   0  7.6  4.8 Nevada - Reno           
 94 56   0  7.7  4.7 Florida International   
 95 45   0  7.1  5.4 Tulane                  
 96 42   0  6.9  5.5 Cincinnati              
 97 53   0  7.1  5.3 Illinois                
 98 70   0  7.5  4.9 Kansas                  
 99 22   0  7.7  4.7 Coastal Carolina        
100 50   0  7.3  5.0 Western Kentucky        
101 54   0  7.3  4.9 Central Michigan        
102 32   0  7.9  4.3 Oregon State            
103 47   0  7.5  4.7 Liberty                 
104 40   0  7.2  5.1 Georgia Southern        
105 48   0  7.4  4.8 Middle Tennessee State  
106 49   0  7.1  5.1 Akron                   
107 51   0  7.8  4.3 Northeast Louisiana     
108 34   0  7.5  4.6 Alabama - Birmingham    
109 50  -1  6.9  5.2 Rutgers                 
110 44  -1  7.9  4.1 East Carolina           
111 41  -1  6.7  5.4 Texas - San Antonio     
112 40  -1  7.3  4.7 New Mexico              
113 32  -1  6.4  5.6 Wyoming                 
114 52  -1  7.7  4.2 Rice                    
115 29  -1  7.4  4.4 Colorado State          
116 49  -1  6.8  5.1 Miami - Ohio            
117 32  -2  6.8  5.1 Georgia State           
118 27  -2  7.3  4.4 Louisiana - Lafayette   
119 24  -2  6.8  5.0 South Alabama           
120 35  -3  6.9  4.6 Connecticut             
121 26  -3  7.4  4.1 Bowling Green           
122 32  -3  7.7  3.6 Massachusetts           
123 31  -3  6.6  4.8 Kent State              
124 24  -4  6.8  4.5 Old Dominion            
125 26  -4  6.7  4.5 Ball State              
126 40  -4  6.9  4.3 San Jose State          
127 19  -5  6.3  4.5 North Carolina - Charlot
128 21  -5  6.7  4.1 Texas State - San Marcos
129 26  -6  6.2  4.5 Texas - El Paso         
130 12  -8  6.5  3.6 New Mexico State        

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 23   8  8.0  6.8 North Dakota State      
  2 16   8  9.1  5.7 South Dakota State      
  3 12   7  8.1  6.4 James Madison           
  4 20   5  7.7  6.1 Jacksonville State      
  5 24   4  7.8  5.9 North Carolina A&T      
  6 67   4  7.7  5.9 Northern Iowa           
  7 33   3  8.4  5.1 South Dakota            
  8 28   3  8.2  5.2 Richmond                
  9 46   3  7.8  5.6 Kennesaw State          
 10 32   3  7.6  5.8 Yale                    
 11 44   3  8.6  4.7 Princeton               
 12 39   3  7.9  5.5 Western Illinois        
 13 29   3  7.3  5.9 Weber State             
 14 37   3  7.6  5.7 Illinois State          
 15 40   3  7.1  6.2 Villanova               
 16 53   2  8.3  4.8 Eastern Washington      
 17 52   2  7.3  5.8 Stony Brook             
 18 48   2  8.0  5.1 Montana                 
 19 55   2  7.3  5.8 Youngstown State        
 20 38   2  7.6  5.4 Maine                   
 21 50   1  8.6  4.3 Sam Houston State       
 22 41   1  7.0  5.9 Delaware                
 23 35   1  8.0  4.9 California - Davis      
 24 63   1  7.4  5.4 San Diego               
 25 27   1  7.9  4.9 Southern Illinois       
 26 54   0  7.6  5.0 Southern Utah           
 27 56   0  7.4  5.3 Samford                 
 28 62   0  7.8  4.9 Furman                  
 29 45   0  7.4  5.2 Wofford                 
 30 46   0  7.6  5.0 Pennsylvania            
 31 47   0  7.2  5.4 Mercer                  
 32 62   0  6.8  5.8 Colgate                 
 33 64   0  7.2  5.3 Dartmouth               
 34 43   0  7.2  5.3 Montana State           
 35 66   0  7.2  5.4 Central Arkansas        
 36 32   0  7.9  4.6 Sacramento State        
 37 54   0  7.8  4.7 Prairie View            
 38 27   0  7.1  5.4 Elon                    
 39 80   0  7.1  5.4 Harvard                 
 40 41   0  7.2  5.2 Towson                  
 41 67   0  6.8  5.6 New Hampshire           
 42 56   0  7.0  5.4 Columbia                
 43 52   0  7.6  4.8 Austin Peay             
 44 54   0  7.9  4.4 Western Carolina        
 45 40   0  7.9  4.4 Monmouth                
 46 57   0  7.2  5.0 Southeast Missouri State
 47 38   0  7.3  5.0 Northern Arizona        
 48 23   0  7.6  4.6 Rhode Island            
 49 36  -1  7.2  4.9 Holy Cross              
 50 48  -1  7.1  5.0 Charleston Southern     
 51 44  -1  7.3  4.8 Tennessee State         
 52 58  -1  7.3  4.7 Southeast Louisiana     
 53 32  -1  7.4  4.6 Missouri State          
 54 71  -1  6.4  5.7 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 55 40  -1  6.5  5.5 Albany                  
 56 56  -1  6.6  5.4 William & Mary          
 57 38  -1  8.0  3.9 Lehigh                  
 58 46  -1  6.8  5.2 North Dakota            
 59 58  -1  6.7  5.2 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 60 44  -1  7.0  4.9 Grambling               
 61 50  -1  7.2  4.7 Alcorn State            
 62 29  -2  7.2  4.7 Central Connecticut     
 63 29  -1  6.6  5.2 Tennessee - Martin      
 64 90  -1  6.6  5.3 McNeese State           
 65 47  -2  6.9  5.0 The Citadel             
 66 35  -2  7.0  4.8 Idaho                   
 67 67  -2  7.2  4.6 Sacred Heart            
 68 37  -2  7.2  4.6 Northern Colorado       
 69 68  -2  6.8  4.9 Bethune - Cookman       
 70 43  -2  6.9  4.8 California Poly         
 71 50  -2  7.4  4.2 Bryant                  
 72 38  -2  6.8  4.8 Nicholls State          
 73 47  -2  6.9  4.7 Eastern Kentucky        
 74 75  -2  6.6  5.0 North Carolina Central  
 75 56  -3  6.7  4.9 Cornell                 
 76 39  -3  7.2  4.3 Southern                
 77 52  -3  7.6  3.9 Idaho State             
 78 96  -3  6.6  4.8 Dayton                  
 79 48  -4  6.9  4.4 Northwestern State      
 80 96  -4  6.6  4.7 Drake                   
 81 85  -4  7.1  4.2 Indiana State           
 82 24  -4  6.5  4.7 Wagner                  
 83 17  -4  6.8  4.3 Eastern Illinois        
 84 18  -4  7.1  3.9 Howard                  
 85 41  -4  6.7  4.4 Fordham                 
 86 56  -5  6.3  4.7 Hampton                 
 87 36  -5  5.8  5.2 South Carolina State    
 88 62  -5  6.2  4.7 Brown                   
 89 61  -5  6.6  4.3 Campbell                
 90 61  -5  6.4  4.5 Butler                  
 91 15  -5  6.4  4.5 Florida A&M             
 92 33  -5  6.4  4.4 Norfolk State           
 93 38  -5  5.8  5.1 Bucknell                
 94 **  -5  6.6  4.3 Abilene Christian       
 95 44  -5  6.5  4.4 Tennessee Tech          
 96 **  -6  7.7  2.9 North Alabama           
 97 38  -5  6.2  4.6 East Tennessee State    
 98 22  -5  6.0  4.8 Gardner - Webb          
 99 65  -5  6.2  4.6 Presbyterian            
100 35  -6  7.1  3.4 Portland State          
101 **  -6  6.3  4.4 Duquesne                
102 75  -6  6.6  4.1 Valparaiso              
103 20  -6  6.4  4.3 Murray State            
104 37  -6  5.7  4.9 Alabama State           
105 29  -7  6.5  3.9 Morgan State            
106 43  -7  6.1  4.3 Stephen F. Austin       
107 36  -6  5.5  5.0 Georgetown              
108 27  -7  5.6  4.9 Lafayette               
109 80  -7  6.7  3.5 Jacksonville            
110 13  -7  6.4  3.9 Savannah State          
111 71  -8  6.7  3.4 Incarnate Word          
112 45  -7  6.3  4.0 Marist                  
113 23  -7  5.7  4.5 Robert Morris           
114 13  -8  6.0  4.2 Alabama A&M             
115 35  -7  5.3  4.9 Jackson State           
116 42  -8  5.7  4.4 Texas Southern          
117 42  -8  6.2  3.7 Lamar                   
118 98  -8  5.9  4.1 Stetson                 
119 25  -9  6.3  3.6 Delaware State          
120 19  -9  5.8  4.1 Virginia Military       
121 37  -9  6.3  3.4 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
122 26 -10  6.6  2.8 Morehead State          
123 92 -11  5.8  3.5 Davidson                
124  7 -11  5.9  3.2 Mississippi Valley State
125 28 -14  5.8  2.5 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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