16 Sep 2018: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2018 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  4  15  9.4  7.3 Alabama                  129 62   0  8.1  4.5 Southern Methodist      
  2  5  13  9.8  6.2 Ohio State               130 34   0  7.9  4.6 Sacramento State        
  3 20  12  9.9  5.9 Oklahoma                 131 61   0  7.8  4.7 Prairie View            
  4  6  12  9.5  6.2 Penn State               132 49   0  7.7  4.8 Austin Peay             
  5  6  11  8.8  6.7 Georgia                  133 83   0  7.1  5.4 Harvard                 
  6  6  10  8.6  6.9 Clemson                  134 37   0  7.4  5.1 Southern Mississippi    
  7 36  10  8.7  6.7 Auburn                   135 22   0  7.8  4.6 Coastal Carolina        
  8  7  10  8.3  6.9 Washington               136 37   0  7.7  4.8 Nevada - Reno           
  9 10  10  9.6  5.8 Oklahoma State           137 52   0  7.1  5.3 Illinois                
 10  8   9  8.6  6.5 Mississippi State        138 72   0  7.1  5.4 Central Arkansas        
 11  8   9  8.2  6.8 Louisiana State          139 44   0  7.0  5.4 Tulane                  
 12 10   9  8.4  6.6 Texas Christian          140 34   0  8.1  4.3 Oregon State            
 13  9   9  8.7  6.2 Miami - Florida          141 24   0  7.8  4.5 Rhode Island            
 14 54   8  8.2  6.7 Virginia Tech            142 35   0  7.1  5.3 Georgia Southern        
 15 13   9  9.2  5.7 South Dakota State       143 64   0  7.3  5.0 Southern Utah           
 16 15   8  7.9  6.9 North Dakota State       144 61   0  7.0  5.4 Columbia                
 17 21   8  9.2  5.6 Central Florida          145 50   0  7.4  4.9 Southeast Missouri State
 18 10   8  8.2  6.5 Wisconsin                146 48   0  7.2  5.2 Western Kentucky        
 19 23   8  8.2  6.5 Stanford                 147 47   0  7.2  5.1 Akron                   
 20 51   7  8.0  6.6 Iowa                     148 56   0  7.9  4.4 Western Carolina        
 21 33   7  8.1  6.4 Michigan                 149 52   0  7.5  4.8 Liberty                 
 22 30   8  9.6  5.1 Memphis                  150 44   0  7.9  4.3 Monmouth                
 23 15   7  8.9  5.7 Boise State              151 33   0  7.4  4.9 Holy Cross              
 24 12   7  8.9  5.6 Texas A&M                152 49   0  7.4  4.8 Middle Tennessee State  
 25 15   7  8.0  6.3 James Madison            153 60   0  6.6  5.6 New Hampshire           
 26 28   6  8.4  5.9 Washington State         154 47   0  7.9  4.2 East Carolina           
 27 26   6  8.2  6.0 Notre Dame               155 31   0  7.5  4.6 Alabama - Birmingham    
 28 86   6  7.9  6.3 Iowa State               156 50   0  7.2  4.9 Central Michigan        
 29 38   6  8.3  5.9 North Carolina State     157 50  -1  7.7  4.4 Northeast Louisiana     
 30 23   6  8.7  5.6 West Virginia            158 45  -1  7.1  5.0 Charleston Southern     
 31 30   6  8.0  6.2 Duke                     159 40  -1  7.3  4.8 Tennessee State         
 32 31   6  8.3  5.9 Boston College           160 33  -1  7.4  4.6 Missouri State          
 33 36   6  7.9  6.2 Texas                    161 56  -1  6.9  5.2 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 34 26   6  9.1  5.0 Missouri                 162 64  -1  6.5  5.6 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 35 29   5  7.7  6.3 Utah                     163 41  -1  7.4  4.6 New Mexico              
 36 57   5  7.8  6.2 Michigan State           164 59  -1  7.3  4.7 Southeast Louisiana     
 37 37   5  8.9  5.1 Syracuse                 165 32  -1  7.1  4.9 Northern Arizona        
 38 56   5  9.3  4.7 Texas Tech               166 31  -1  6.4  5.6 Wyoming                 
 39 26   5  8.0  5.9 Southern California      167 53  -1  7.7  4.2 Rice                    
 40 63   5  8.9  5.1 Mississippi              168 38  -1  6.7  5.3 Texas - San Antonio     
 41 22   5  7.9  6.1 Florida                  169 43  -1  6.9  5.1 Rutgers                 
 42 46   5  8.1  5.9 Fresno State             170 55  -1  6.6  5.3 William & Mary          
 43 31   5  8.7  5.2 South Florida            171 26  -1  7.4  4.5 Colorado State          
 44 33   5  8.3  5.7 Georgia Tech             172 51  -1  6.7  5.3 North Dakota            
 45 21   5  8.1  5.8 Kansas State             173 39  -2  7.7  4.1 Lehigh                  
 46 22   5  8.7  5.2 Oregon                   174 49  -1  7.1  4.7 Alcorn State            
 47 50   5  8.5  5.4 Wake Forest              175 32  -2  7.4  4.4 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 48 31   5  8.2  5.6 Houston                  176 62  -2  7.2  4.6 Sacred Heart            
 49 20   5  7.7  6.1 Jacksonville State       177 47  -1  6.8  5.1 Miami - Ohio            
 50 32   5  8.3  5.4 Arizona State            178 36  -2  7.2  4.6 Northern Colorado       
 51 70   5  8.4  5.4 Louisville               179 45  -2  6.9  5.0 The Citadel             
 52 41   4  7.7  6.0 South Carolina           180 36  -2  7.0  4.8 California Poly         
 53 23   4  7.9  5.8 Appalachian State        181 28  -2  6.9  5.0 South Alabama           
 54 28   4  8.0  5.7 Colorado                 182 34  -2  6.8  5.1 Georgia State           
 55 47   4  8.1  5.6 Indiana                  183 35  -2  7.0  4.8 Idaho                   
 56 23   4  7.7  5.9 North Carolina A&T       184 47  -2  6.9  4.9 Grambling               
 57 60   4  7.7  5.9 Northern Iowa            185 92  -2  6.5  5.3 McNeese State           
 58 46   4  7.6  6.0 San Diego State          186 46  -2  6.5  5.3 Albany                  
 59 56   4  8.1  5.4 Navy                     187 73  -2  6.9  4.9 Bethune - Cookman       
 60 67   4  7.9  5.7 Northwestern             188 24  -2  7.1  4.6 Central Connecticut     
 61 34   4  7.6  5.9 Vanderbilt               189 25  -2  6.7  5.0 Tennessee - Martin      
 62 90   4  9.0  4.6 Hawaii                   190 76  -2  6.6  5.0 North Carolina Central  
 63 57   4  8.0  5.6 California               191 55  -2  7.5  4.1 Bryant                  
 64 39   4  8.0  5.5 Kennesaw State           192 55  -2  6.9  4.7 Eastern Kentucky        
 65 74   3  7.4  6.1 Florida State            193 30  -2  6.7  4.9 Nicholls State          
 66 39   3  7.2  6.3 Minnesota                194 52  -3  6.7  4.9 Cornell                 
 67 31   3  8.2  5.2 Richmond                 195 37  -3  7.2  4.3 Southern                
 68 32   3  7.8  5.6 Kentucky                 196 47  -3  7.6  3.8 Idaho State             
 69 65   3  7.7  5.8 Purdue                   197 34  -3  6.8  4.7 Kent State              
 70 39   3  8.4  4.9 Toledo                   198 31  -3  7.7  3.6 Massachusetts           
 71 52   3  7.7  5.7 Temple                   199 29  -3  6.8  4.7 Ball State              
 72 59   3  8.5  4.9 North Texas              200 55  -3  7.0  4.4 Northwestern State      
 73 54   3  7.6  5.8 Army                     201 34  -3  7.0  4.4 Connecticut             
 74 39   3  8.3  5.1 Utah State               202 **  -3  6.8  4.6 Dayton                  
 75 33   3  8.3  5.1 South Dakota             203 38  -3  6.9  4.5 San Jose State          
 76 34   3  7.6  5.7 Yale                     204 84  -3  7.2  4.1 Indiana State           
 77 43   3  7.9  5.5 Virginia                 205 21  -3  7.3  4.0 Bowling Green           
 78 43   3  8.6  4.7 Princeton                206 99  -4  6.6  4.7 Drake                   
 79 39   3  7.1  6.1 Villanova                207 24  -4  6.6  4.6 Wagner                  
 80 37   3  7.6  5.7 Illinois State           208 20  -4  7.1  3.9 Howard                  
 81 31   3  7.3  6.0 Weber State              209 20  -4  6.7  4.4 Old Dominion            
 82 20   3  8.5  4.7 Arizona                  210 50  -5  6.3  4.7 Hampton                 
 83 43   3  8.2  5.0 Baylor                   211 16  -5  6.8  4.1 Eastern Illinois        
 84 58   2  8.0  5.2 Arkansas State           212 34  -5  5.8  5.3 South Carolina State    
 85 44   2  8.1  5.1 Montana                  213 22  -5  6.4  4.6 North Carolina - Charlot
 86 47   2  7.7  5.4 Pittsburgh               214 60  -5  6.4  4.6 Butler                  
 87 41   2  7.7  5.4 Western Illinois         215 **  -5  7.5  3.3 North Alabama           
 88 36   2  8.0  5.1 Louisiana Tech           216 53  -5  6.2  4.7 Brown                   
 89 49   2  8.2  5.0 Ohio                     217 39  -5  6.5  4.4 Fordham                 
 90 56   2  8.3  4.8 Eastern Washington       218 63  -5  6.5  4.3 Campbell                
 91 75   2  7.7  5.4 North Carolina           219 25  -5  6.4  4.5 Norfolk State           
 92 63   2  7.7  5.4 Troy State               220 **  -5  6.6  4.3 Abilene Christian       
 93 38   2  7.3  5.8 Tennessee                221 16  -5  6.4  4.4 Florida A&M             
 94 55   2  7.3  5.8 Stony Brook              222 38  -5  5.8  5.1 Bucknell                
 95 55   2  7.9  5.2 California - Los Angeles 223 42  -5  6.2  4.6 East Tennessee State    
 96 38   2  8.1  4.9 California - Davis       224 20  -6  6.7  4.0 Texas State - San Marcos
 97 47   2  8.0  5.1 Maryland                 225 63  -5  6.2  4.6 Presbyterian            
 98 49   2  8.0  5.0 Nebraska                 226 21  -6  5.9  4.8 Gardner - Webb          
 99 72   2  8.2  4.8 Florida Atlantic         227 **  -6  6.3  4.4 Duquesne                
100 31   2  7.0  6.0 Brigham Young            228 36  -6  7.1  3.4 Portland State          
101 46   2  7.6  5.4 Maine                    229 23  -6  6.4  4.3 Tennessee Tech          
102 38   2  8.0  5.0 Air Force                230 79  -6  6.5  4.1 Valparaiso              
103 68   1  7.6  5.4 Eastern Michigan         231 27  -6  6.2  4.5 Texas - El Paso         
104 69   1  7.9  5.0 Buffalo                  232 18  -6  6.3  4.3 Murray State            
105 41   1  8.0  4.9 Tulsa                    233 34  -6  6.6  3.9 Morgan State            
106 43   1  7.0  5.9 Delaware                 234 35  -6  5.8  4.8 Alabama State           
107 51   1  8.5  4.3 Sam Houston State        235 36  -6  5.5  5.1 Georgetown              
108 43   1  8.2  4.6 Western Michigan         236 55  -7  6.8  3.5 Incarnate Word          
109 18   1  8.1  4.7 Southern Illinois        237 74  -7  6.7  3.5 Jacksonville            
110 43   1  7.6  5.2 Marshall                 238 42  -7  6.1  4.3 Stephen F. Austin       
111 62   1  8.2  4.5 Nevada - Las Vegas       239 13  -7  6.3  3.9 Savannah State          
112 63   1  7.2  5.6 Youngstown State         240 28  -7  5.5  4.9 Lafayette               
113 71   1  7.2  5.5 Northern Illinois        241 23  -7  5.8  4.5 Robert Morris           
114 44   1  7.5  5.2 Wofford                  242 46  -8  6.3  3.9 Marist                  
115 37   0  7.4  5.3 Montana State            243 12  -8  6.5  3.6 New Mexico State        
116 70   0  7.6  5.0 Kansas                   244 34  -7  5.4  4.9 Jackson State           
117 49   0  7.2  5.4 Mercer                   245 11  -8  5.8  4.3 Alabama A&M             
118 47   0  7.8  4.8 Arkansas                 246 34  -8  5.7  4.4 Texas Southern          
119 43   0  7.6  5.0 Pennsylvania             247 40  -8  6.3  3.7 Lamar                   
120 42   0  6.9  5.7 Cincinnati               248 99  -8  5.9  4.1 Stetson                 
121 64   0  6.7  5.9 Colgate                  249 41  -9  6.3  3.6 Delaware State          
122 57   0  7.3  5.2 Samford                  250 15  -9  5.9  3.9 Virginia Military       
123 61   0  7.3  5.3 San Diego                251 43  -9  6.3  3.4 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
124 63   0  7.3  5.3 Dartmouth                252 26 -10  6.7  2.7 Morehead State          
125 56   0  7.8  4.8 Florida International    253 93 -11  5.8  3.5 Davidson                
126 60   0  7.7  4.8 Furman                   254  7 -11  5.9  3.2 Mississippi Valley State
127 29   0  7.1  5.4 Elon                     255 13 -16  6.1  1.5 Houston Baptist         
128 34   0  7.3  5.2 Towson                  

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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