prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 179 Bethune - Cookman 41 46.9, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 27 14.3
97% 137 Central Arkansas 66 61.2, 255 Houston Baptist 35 11.3
97% 105 North Carolina A&T 34 44.2, 251 Delaware State 6 10.9
97% 42 Memphis 55 56.7, 207 Connecticut 14 21.7
97% 41 Princeton 66 51.4, 190 Lehigh 7 22.4
97% 2 Ohio State 49 49.3, 63 Indiana 26 17.3
96% 17 Central Florida 48 54.4, 147 Southern Methodist 20 25.4
96% 1 Alabama 65 50.1, 130 Arkansas 31 9.8
95% 35 North Texas 27 47.1, 240 Texas - El Paso 24 13.1
95% 15 Wisconsin 41 42.1, 117 Nebraska 24 15.5
95% 14 South Dakota State 54 58.0, 203 Indiana State 51 16.8
95% 4 Georgia 41 37.0, 65 Vanderbilt 13 12.7
94% 134 Sam Houston State 54 42.1, 242 Stephen F. Austin 21 19.4
94% 133 San Diego 51 50.1, 250 Morehead State 34 22.3
94% 72 Toledo 52 56.6, 217 Bowling Green 36 28.0
94% 51 Mississippi 70 48.6, 183 Northeast Louisiana 21 24.8
93% 11 Michigan 42 39.6, 81 Maryland 21 15.6
92% 54 South Florida 58 50.8, 182 Massachusetts 42 30.6
91% 84 South Dakota 35 40.3, 143 Missouri State 28 25.1
91% 30 Washington State 56 44.5, 153 Oregon State 37 26.4
91% 18 West Virginia 38 43.2, 96 Kansas 22 20.4
91% 7 Clemson 63 38.9, 67 Wake Forest 3 21.2
91% 5 Washington 31 37.5, 111 California - Los Angel 24 14.1
89% 89 Colgate 27 26.9, 218 Bucknell 3 8.3
89% 73 California - Davis 49 43.1, 196 Northern Colorado 36 27.1
88% 12 Miami - Florida 28 33.9, 59 Florida State 27 18.0
87% 163 Columbia 34 35.2, 245 Marist 24 14.9
87% 48 Houston 41 42.6, 115 Tulsa 26 26.3
86% 95 Troy State 37 34.4, 181 Georgia State 20 17.3
86% 40 Fresno State 21 39.3, 141 Nevada - Reno 3 24.4
85% 121 Rhode Island 48 36.6, 215 Brown 0 19.8
85% 70 Temple 49 38.8, 139 East Carolina 6 25.9
83% 104 Florida Atlantic 52 42.1, 155 Old Dominion 33 29.8
82% 209 Dayton 53 37.3, 233 Valparaiso 20 26.1
82% 142 Southeast Missouri Sta 70 39.8, 232 Tennessee Tech 38 22.7
81% 66 Kennesaw State 56 44.4, 224 Presbyterian 0 11.7
80% 60 Jacksonville State 56 39.4, 174 Eastern Kentucky 7 24.2
77% 188 McNeese State 24 30.1, 227 Abilene Christian 21 14.6
74% 57 Eastern Washington 55 43.7, 171 Southern Utah 17 24.7
72% 210 East Tennessee State 45 27.0, 244 Gardner - Webb 0 16.4
72% 126 Georgia Southern 48 32.3, 176 South Alabama 13 19.9
71% 241 Jackson State 30 30.7, 253 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 27 18.1
71% 98 Ohio 27 39.9, 184 Kent State 26 26.9
71% 88 Hawaii 17 33.9, 157 Wyoming 13 24.0
68% 92 Cincinnati 37 26.5, 113 Tulane 21 17.7
68% 31 Texas A&M 20 32.9, 37 Kentucky 14 24.5
67% 24 North Carolina State 28 34.0, 52 Boston College 23 24.6
67% 23 Iowa 48 23.4, 79 Minnesota 31 14.4
66% 165 New Hampshire 28 25.4, 168 Holy Cross 0 20.6
66% 161 Louisiana - Lafayette 42 38.0, 222 Texas State - San Marc 27 30.2
66% 127 Samford 66 36.4, 164 Western Carolina 28 27.2
65% 202 Drake 36 28.0, 220 Butler 6 19.2
65% 199 Florida A&M 17 27.0, 201 Norfolk State 0 22.5
65% 140 Illinois 38 27.1, 195 Rutgers 17 20.6
65% 118 Youngstown State 17 33.3, 109 Southern Illinois 14 28.3
65% 114 Northern Illinois 24 27.3, 144 Ball State 16 22.7
64% 206 Central Connecticut 56 32.4, 239 Robert Morris 35 26.0
64% 180 Idaho State 62 35.2, 194 Idaho 28 29.7
64% 102 Buffalo 34 29.6, 150 Central Michigan 24 26.2
64% 50 Georgia Tech 66 33.6, 86 Louisville 31 30.4
64% 49 Colorado 28 31.1, 43 Arizona State 21 28.4
63% 213 North Carolina Central 40 32.6, 198 Howard 35 30.0
63% 211 Campbell 49 28.0, 208 Wagner 3 24.6
63% 103 Western Michigan 27 35.1, 90 Eastern Michigan 24 32.8
63% 100 Wofford 21 27.4, 149 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 24.1
63% 97 Arizona 24 33.4, 85 California 17 31.4
63% 77 Illinois State 33 30.0, 91 Western Illinois 16 24.9
63% 19 North Dakota State 56 20.4, 56 Northern Iowa 31 16.4
61% 74 Baylor 37 30.2, 82 Kansas State 34 28.7
55% 167 Nicholls State 28 26.7, 189 Northwestern State 10 26.0
55% 99 Air Force 35 31.7, 94 Navy 7 31.0
53% 44 South Carolina 37 33.9, 33 Missouri 35 33.3
52% 178 Colorado State 42 32.8, 186 San Jose State 30 32.4
47% 152 Austin Peay 49 32.6, 136 Tennessee State 34 33.0
44% 252 Davidson 44 29.1, 248 Jacksonville 37 31.0
44% 216 South Carolina State 21 20.8, 214 Morgan State 18 21.7
44% 200 Texas - San Antonio 20 29.6, 197 Rice 3 30.6
43% 192 Bryant 21 33.3, 226 Duquesne 20 34.5
43% 129 Pennsylvania 31 28.7, 158 Sacred Heart 27 29.6
41% 235 Alabama A&M 42 19.6, 243 Texas Southern 21 21.4
39% 204 William & Mary 25 19.0, 162 Albany 22 21.3
38% 87 Dartmouth 41 23.4, 75 Yale 18 26.2
37% 58 Utah State 45 25.9, 68 Brigham Young 20 28.7
37% 28 Florida 27 19.7, 8 Louisiana State 19 23.7
37% 22 Mississippi State 23 21.4, 13 Auburn 9 23.8
37% 16 Notre Dame 45 26.6, 27 Virginia Tech 23 29.9
36% 230 Georgetown 23 20.0, 238 Fordham 11 23.7
36% 169 Cornell 28 20.5, 131 Harvard 24 25.6
36% 110 Delaware 43 25.5, 120 Richmond 28 29.4
36% 107 Towson 52 23.5, 93 Stony Brook 28 28.3
35% 122 Maine 13 20.7, 64 Villanova 10 27.1
34% 219 Murray State 48 33.2, 205 Eastern Illinois 41 37.9
34% 154 New Mexico 50 33.6, 119 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 41.2
34% 61 Northwestern 29 18.8, 47 Michigan State 19 27.6
34% 39 Utah 40 17.7, 29 Stanford 21 25.1
33% 223 Incarnate Word 52 27.1, 185 Southeast Louisiana 34 37.3
33% 112 Pittsburgh 44 30.1, 34 Syracuse 37 39.1
32% 187 California Poly 41 30.6, 138 Sacramento State 27 39.6
32% 175 Miami - Ohio 41 20.7, 124 Akron 17 28.8
32% 166 Middle Tennessee State 34 23.9, 108 Marshall 24 34.3
24% 145 Alabama - Birmingham 28 27.1, 76 Louisiana Tech 7 39.0
22% 247 Savannah State 23 19.4, 146 Charleston Southern 3 39.5
22% 38 Iowa State 48 21.9, 10 Oklahoma State 42 33.7
19% 36 Texas 48 26.3, 6 Oklahoma 45 38.5
16% 191 Northern Arizona 28 18.2, 78 Weber State 24 32.3
14% 69 San Diego State 19 19.3, 20 Boise State 13 36.4
9% 231 New Mexico State 49 23.2, 123 Liberty 41 42.7
8% 236 Alabama State 28 12.6, 156 Alcorn State 25 33.4
6% 83 Elon 27 13.0, 9 James Madison 24 38.6
3% 228 Portland State 22 18.1, 71 Montana 20 55.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.66 45 0.86 11 0.98 16 0.95 27 0.91 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 73 82.4 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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