2018 Week 7 (9-13 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%  48 Kennesaw State          56 46.8,   252 Gardner - Webb          17  6.7
 97%  22 Princeton               48 53.4,   230 Brown                   10  6.9
 96%  46 Jacksonville State      49 56.6,   209 Eastern Illinois        22 17.9
 95% 206 Southeast Louisiana     62 56.9,   255 Houston Baptist         52 24.1
 95% 167 Charleston Southern     58 60.1,   255 Houston Baptist          6 19.7
 95%  10 Notre Dame              19 41.6,   107 Pittsburgh              14 19.2
 95%   2 Ohio State              30 46.6,    67 Minnesota               14 15.4
 94%   1 Alabama                 39 54.8,    34 Missouri                10 23.4
 93%  96 Samford                 73 46.7,   232 Virginia Military       22 16.2
 93%  70 Maryland                34 41.8,   203 Rutgers                  7 16.6
 92%  21 South Dakota State      36 44.1,   135 Youngstown State         7 22.5
 91% 194 Howard                  55 49.7,   251 Delaware State          13 27.4
 90% 132 Montana State           24 37.1,   208 Idaho                   23 15.9
 90%  97 Western Michigan        42 46.4,   214 Bowling Green           35 30.7
 90%  55 Army                    52 38.8,   195 San Jose State           3 15.8
 90%  29 Boise State             31 43.3,   159 Nevada - Reno           27 23.3
 89%  89 Georgia Southern        15 39.3,   229 Texas State - San Marc  13 19.1
 88%  39 Fresno State            27 30.1,   149 Wyoming                  3  9.9
 88%  37 Mississippi             37 45.2,   133 Arkansas                33 29.4
 87% 131 Harvard                 33 32.0,   192 Holy Cross              31 16.6
 87%  78 Colgate                 31 28.5,   155 Cornell                  0 11.1
 87%  35 Utah State              59 49.2,   143 Nevada - Las Vegas      28 27.8
 87%  28 Texas                   23 39.7,    74 Baylor                  17 24.6
 87%  25 Utah                    42 35.6,   100 Arizona                 10 18.5
 86% 238 Jackson State           23 34.3,   253 Mississippi Valley Sta   7 17.1
 86% 160 Central Arkansas        27 33.7,   243 Stephen F. Austin       17 15.4
 86% 157 Louisiana - Lafayette   66 43.3,   207 New Mexico State        38 29.5
 86%  66 Dartmouth               42 38.2,   163 Sacred Heart             0 19.7
 86%  45 Houston                 42 44.7,   164 East Carolina           20 27.8
 85%  76 California - Davis      44 50.2,   141 Idaho State             37 34.1
 85%  54 North Texas             30 36.3,   121 Southern Mississippi     7 22.2
 85%  11 Iowa                    42 30.5,    68 Indiana                 16 19.7
 83%  79 Towson                  29 36.9,   204 William & Mary          13 18.1
 81% 177 Monmouth                36 36.2,   231 Bucknell                19 22.5
 79% 191 Grambling               34 33.4,   247 Texas Southern          21 18.0
 79%  63 Northwestern            34 35.5,   115 Nebraska                31 23.9
 79%  30 Appalachian State       35 36.1,   102 Arkansas State           9 23.5
 77%  52 Boston College          38 36.9,   114 Louisville              20 24.6
 75% 122 Sam Houston State       42 39.1,   200 Northwestern State      28 28.6
 75%  13 North Dakota State      34 32.9,   106 Western Illinois         7 17.0
 73% 150 San Diego               36 37.7,   196 Dayton                  34 26.6
 72%  84 Brigham Young           49 34.2,    98 Hawaii                  23 26.1
 68% 175 Alcorn State            35 28.5,   221 Alabama A&M             26 17.7
 68% 144 Miami - Ohio            31 29.5,   176 Kent State               6 20.5
 68%  75 Illinois State          51 34.5,   119 Southern Illinois        3 23.7
 67% 223 Duquesne                48 36.6,   242 Robert Morris           24 21.1
 67% 126 Alabama - Birmingham    42 37.0,   213 Rice                     0 27.8
 67%  91 Yale                    35 34.8,   146 Mercer                  28 23.9
 67%  88 Florida International   24 36.2,   148 Middle Tennessee State  21 25.9
 67%  61 South Florida           25 37.8,   113 Tulsa                   24 30.8
 67%  57 Purdue                  46 31.1,   124 Illinois                 7 21.9
 67%  50 Virginia Tech           22 34.1,   127 North Carolina          19 22.1
 67%  20 James Madison           37 29.9,    73 Villanova                0 19.7
 66% 234 Marist                  20 33.3,   250 Jacksonville            17 28.0
 66% 128 Pennsylvania            13 29.6,   169 Columbia                10 20.9
 66% 120 Missouri State          29 36.9,   173 Indiana State           26 31.6
 66% 117 Southeast Missouri Sta  31 40.0,   140 Austin Peay             27 34.2
 66% 109 Louisiana Tech          31 29.5,   188 Texas - San Antonio      3 21.1
 66%  92 Buffalo                 24 35.2,   138 Akron                    6 27.7
 66%  60 San Diego State         21 27.0,    82 Air Force               17 20.5
 66%  18 Florida                 37 25.5,    64 Vanderbilt              27 18.9
 66%  15 Central Florida         31 46.5,    51 Memphis                 30 40.6
 66%   8 Michigan                38 27.4,    23 Wisconsin               13 19.0
 65% 142 Tennessee - Chattanoog  26 33.6,   182 Western Carolina         6 29.0
 65% 125 Marshall                42 34.3,   168 Old Dominion            20 30.2
 65%  65 Northern Iowa           42 30.5,    90 South Dakota            28 26.3
 64% 183 South Alabama           45 29.0,   228 Alabama State            7 24.3
 64%  59 Temple                  24 29.8,   129 Navy                    17 24.8
 63% 110 Northern Illinois       24 31.8,   105 Ohio                    21 28.4
 63% 104 Stony Brook             35 21.6,   136 New Hampshire            7 18.9
 63%  56 Southern California     31 28.2,    43 Colorado                20 24.9
 62% 190 Bethune - Cookman       28 22.1,   210 South Carolina State    26 19.9
 58%  93 Delaware                28 23.8,    69 Elon                    16 22.6
 56%  33 Texas A&M               26 27.4,    42 South Carolina          23 26.5
 53%  80 Eastern Michigan        28 37.8,    77 Toledo                  26 37.4
 51% 147 Richmond                27 32.1,   171 Albany                  24 32.0

 49% 186 Southern Utah           48 29.6,   162 Sacramento State        27 29.7
 46% 237 Hampton                 24 20.0,   239 Presbyterian            23 21.2
 46%  26 Duke                    28 31.4,    41 Georgia Tech            14 32.0
 45% 216 Morgan State            18 26.1,   227 Savannah State          11 26.9
 43% 233 Georgetown              13 16.2,   241 Lafayette                6 17.1
 40% 137 Ball State              24 24.2,   154 Central Michigan        23 25.6
 37% 244 Valparaiso              35 26.9,   226 Butler                  17 28.9
 37% 189 Eastern Kentucky        35 25.7,   172 Tennessee - Martin      34 29.7
 37%   9 Louisiana State         36 24.2,     5 Georgia                 16 26.4
 36% 246 Morehead State          35 36.6,   249 Davidson                28 42.1
 36% 165 Colorado State          20 34.6,   116 New Mexico              18 38.1
 36% 152 Furman                  34 28.5,    95 Wofford                 14 33.7
 36%  44 Iowa State              30 23.8,    12 West Virginia           14 27.8
 35% 240 Lamar                   27 35.9,   202 Incarnate Word          21 42.5
 35% 145 Liberty                 22 30.5,    87 Troy State              16 35.7
 34% 219 Portland State          35 31.1,   193 Northern Colorado       14 36.6
 34% 211 Central Connecticut     48 34.7,   198 Bryant                  14 40.5
 34% 187 East Tennessee State    26 22.7,   161 The Citadel             23 30.1
 34% 166 North Dakota            41 22.3,    94 Montana                 14 29.2
 34% 134 Maine                   38 23.8,    86 Rhode Island            36 30.3
 34% 103 Weber State             14 28.2,    49 Eastern Washington       6 36.1
 34%  53 Oregon                  30 25.2,     7 Washington              27 32.6
 33% 235 Wagner                  23 21.3,   181 Saint Francis - Pennsy  22 33.9
 33% 112 California - Los Angel  37 24.1,    99 California               7 32.7
 32% 225 Abilene Christian       28 20.2,   158 Nicholls State          12 30.6
 31% 217 Murray State            45 27.1,   139 Tennessee State         21 39.3
 28%  81 Kansas State            31 28.4,    16 Oklahoma State          12 36.3
 26% 222 North Carolina - Charl  40 17.4,   130 Western Kentucky        14 31.9
 25% 245 Fordham                 43 22.4,   205 Lehigh                  14 33.3
 24%  71 Virginia                16 22.4,    17 Miami - Florida         13 32.6
 23%  36 Texas Tech              17 29.0,    19 Texas Christian         14 41.1
 15% 248 Stetson                 23 14.0,   184 Drake                   21 32.5
 14% 185 Florida A&M             22 14.2,   118 North Carolina A&T      21 30.1
 12% 212 Southern                38 24.3,   151 Prairie View             0 40.0
 12% 199 Northeast Louisiana     45 28.2,   123 Coastal Carolina        20 42.6
  8%  62 Michigan State          21 18.3,     3 Penn State              17 43.8
  6% 101 Tennessee               30 10.7,    24 Auburn                  24 33.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 0.82  51 0.90  13 0.81  25 0.97  15 0.92   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113  76  83.9 0.91

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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