prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
96% 86 Louisiana Tech 31 40.8, 230 Texas - El Paso 24 11.1
96% 71 South Florida 38 47.4, 215 Connecticut 30 16.7
96% 61 San Diego State 16 39.3, 216 San Jose State 13 7.4
96% 41 Boise State 56 46.9, 160 Colorado State 28 18.8
95% 1 Alabama 58 45.6, 87 Tennessee 21 12.3
94% 19 Appalachian State 27 51.0, 127 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 21.6
94% 15 Central Florida 37 48.8, 166 East Carolina 10 23.2
93% 5 Penn State 33 44.1, 80 Indiana 28 23.6
92% 218 South Carolina State 30 35.2, 254 Delaware State 19 12.8
92% 105 Georgia Southern 48 39.8, 212 New Mexico State 31 20.9
92% 98 Florida International 36 45.3, 236 Rice 17 18.2
92% 72 Northwestern 18 36.0, 210 Rutgers 15 13.7
92% 36 Texas Tech 48 46.5, 94 Kansas 16 27.5
92% 29 Wisconsin 49 40.6, 154 Illinois 20 12.0
91% 102 Ohio 49 49.7, 207 Bowling Green 14 28.9
90% 32 Army 31 32.8, 126 Miami - Ohio 30 11.6
88% 12 Iowa 23 36.7, 70 Maryland 0 19.9
87% 60 Florida State 38 38.0, 90 Wake Forest 17 24.4
87% 16 Princeton 29 40.2, 136 Harvard 21 20.6
86% 173 Southern 21 38.0, 248 Texas Southern 7 19.1
86% 77 Air Force 41 38.6, 163 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 26.6
86% 30 Fresno State 38 37.4, 123 New Mexico 7 21.4
86% 22 Utah State 24 36.3, 153 Wyoming 16 16.9
86% 2 Clemson 41 36.4, 24 North Carolina State 7 17.8
85% 48 Syracuse 40 42.6, 124 North Carolina 37 26.4
84% 167 Charleston Southern 41 31.6, 245 Presbyterian 7 12.2
82% 152 Central Arkansas 38 34.9, 209 Northwestern State 17 18.6
82% 130 Middle Tennessee State 21 34.0, 196 North Carolina - Charl 13 19.2
79% 172 Tennessee State 41 44.3, 234 Tennessee Tech 14 25.1
79% 161 The Citadel 34 45.1, 242 Virginia Military 32 27.7
79% 128 Southern Mississippi 27 28.8, 203 Texas - San Antonio 17 13.2
79% 114 Arkansas State 51 29.6, 174 Georgia State 35 18.5
78% 150 Mercer 59 41.6, 193 Western Carolina 46 28.7
78% 116 Wofford 30 31.4, 175 East Tennessee State 17 18.0
77% 49 Dartmouth 28 31.9, 165 Columbia 12 14.9
73% 17 Utah 41 29.6, 58 Southern California 28 18.4
72% 235 Marist 48 34.2, 249 Davidson 41 23.7
72% 158 San Diego 42 32.6, 237 Butler 13 21.6
72% 35 Kentucky 14 27.5, 68 Vanderbilt 7 18.9
71% 188 Northeast Louisiana 20 37.2, 219 Texas State - San Marc 14 28.1
71% 11 Washington 27 29.8, 46 Colorado 13 17.0
71% 10 North Dakota State 28 27.3, 56 Illinois State 14 12.4
70% 246 Stephen F. Austin 42 43.2, 250 Houston Baptist 14 33.2
68% 81 California - Davis 52 41.8, 180 California Poly 10 32.6
68% 6 Michigan 21 28.3, 57 Michigan State 7 17.1
67% 247 Stetson 38 30.8, 251 Jacksonville 35 21.8
67% 97 Weber State 34 27.0, 148 Montana State 24 17.5
67% 83 Eastern Michigan 42 30.1, 144 Ball State 20 22.1
67% 73 Elon 38 36.0, 132 Richmond 28 25.5
67% 40 Houston 49 37.8, 137 Navy 36 26.1
67% 8 Louisiana State 19 27.1, 14 Mississippi State 3 19.3
66% 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 48 37.4, 255 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 47 31.1
66% 164 Alcorn State 33 30.4, 200 Grambling 26 24.2
66% 157 Cornell 34 28.3, 227 Brown 16 20.3
66% 119 Akron 24 30.8, 194 Kent State 23 22.9
66% 99 Western Michigan 35 34.5, 143 Central Michigan 10 28.5
66% 85 Stony Brook 52 32.7, 89 Rhode Island 14 26.4
66% 84 Towson 56 34.6, 178 Albany 28 27.1
66% 76 Samford 38 36.0, 142 Furman 25 28.2
66% 59 Temple 24 28.7, 75 Cincinnati 17 22.0
66% 34 Washington State 34 39.7, 55 Oregon 20 33.4
65% 147 North Carolina A&T 35 29.2, 189 Bethune - Cookman 10 23.8
65% 141 Youngstown State 29 29.9, 103 South Dakota 17 25.5
65% 118 North Dakota 41 33.7, 192 Sacramento State 15 26.6
65% 91 California - Los Angel 31 31.7, 106 Arizona 30 27.8
65% 33 Missouri 65 46.6, 52 Memphis 33 41.9
65% 4 Oklahoma 52 34.7, 28 Texas Christian 27 29.4
64% 228 Georgetown 22 25.3, 226 Lehigh 16 22.2
64% 187 Howard 35 36.3, 217 Morgan State 26 32.4
64% 131 California 49 36.2, 151 Oregon State 7 31.8
63% 177 Monmouth 38 32.4, 184 Campbell 21 28.3
63% 146 Coastal Carolina 24 46.0, 168 Massachusetts 13 43.2
63% 88 Delaware 38 21.1, 149 New Hampshire 14 17.6
61% 109 Marshall 31 34.4, 100 Florida Atlantic 7 33.0
60% 121 Arkansas 23 32.4, 110 Tulsa 0 31.2
59% 39 Auburn 31 32.7, 45 Mississippi 16 31.7
58% 134 Liberty 48 40.6, 113 Idaho State 41 39.2
54% 96 Yale 23 27.7, 140 Pennsylvania 10 27.2
47% 222 North Alabama 24 33.6, 243 Jackson State 7 34.6
47% 37 Stanford 20 28.5, 47 Arizona State 13 28.8
41% 223 Bryant 42 29.6, 225 Fordham 41 31.0
40% 117 Western Illinois 31 30.1, 108 Missouri State 14 31.4
37% 201 Idaho 31 22.8, 181 Southern Utah 12 28.4
37% 107 Nebraska 53 27.0, 67 Minnesota 28 29.4
36% 238 Lafayette 29 15.0, 232 Bucknell 27 20.1
36% 221 North Carolina Central 36 19.5, 205 Norfolk State 6 24.9
36% 214 Duquesne 27 22.3, 182 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 28.3
36% 183 Sacred Heart 28 30.5, 191 Central Connecticut 25 33.3
35% 244 Morehead State 31 37.3, 229 Valparaiso 24 42.6
35% 211 Abilene Christian 48 28.8, 220 Southeast Louisiana 27 32.9
35% 129 Nevada - Reno 40 36.1, 112 Hawaii 22 40.1
35% 82 Buffalo 31 37.3, 79 Toledo 17 42.8
34% 213 Incarnate Word 45 23.8, 186 McNeese State 17 30.4
34% 204 Eastern Illinois 24 34.1, 159 Tennessee - Martin 21 40.9
34% 199 William & Mary 27 18.2, 135 Maine 20 23.7
34% 197 Drake 28 25.5, 185 Dayton 17 31.6
34% 195 Murray State 34 28.5, 190 Eastern Kentucky 6 35.1
34% 139 Southern Methodist 27 28.5, 111 Tulane 23 33.7
34% 92 Alabama - Birmingham 29 23.8, 53 North Texas 21 31.0
34% 66 Northern Iowa 24 31.2, 20 South Dakota State 9 38.0
33% 206 Northern Colorado 42 28.0, 162 Northern Arizona 14 34.6
33% 170 Old Dominion 37 26.4, 156 Western Kentucky 34 34.6
33% 115 Southeast Missouri Sta 37 28.4, 54 Jacksonville State 14 39.8
29% 155 Indiana State 24 30.4, 145 Southern Illinois 21 40.7
22% 65 Virginia 28 17.8, 21 Duke 14 30.6
13% 43 Purdue 49 25.5, 3 Ohio State 20 40.6
10% 240 Lamar 41 26.3, 125 Sam Houston State 23 48.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.88 53 0.92 16 1.17 14 1.00 16 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 78 78.2 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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