prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 203 Grambling 45 50.0, 254 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 38 17.6
97% 54 North Texas 41 48.5, 236 Rice 17 12.4
96% 22 Fresno State 50 44.1, 136 Hawaii 20 18.5
96% 17 Princeton 66 47.4, 155 Cornell 0 15.1
95% 215 Northwestern State 31 54.5, 255 Houston Baptist 28 25.7
95% 147 San Diego 59 47.3, 251 Jacksonville 35 17.8
95% 68 Eastern Washington 38 47.2, 196 Idaho 14 18.9
95% 66 Colgate 38 29.8, 227 Georgetown 0 2.8
94% 130 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 44.1, 237 Virginia Military 27 17.5
94% 3 Oklahoma 51 47.6, 70 Kansas State 14 22.3
92% 146 Sam Houston State 28 45.8, 224 Southeast Louisiana 25 27.9
92% 135 Austin Peay 41 49.7, 239 Tennessee Tech 10 26.0
92% 81 Alabama - Birmingham 19 35.0, 223 Texas - El Paso 0 13.2
92% 25 Utah State 61 48.4, 124 New Mexico 19 24.9
91% 24 Notre Dame 44 40.1, 142 Navy 22 18.1
90% 241 Hampton 51 49.7, 255 Houston Baptist 28 26.4
90% 181 Holy Cross 56 36.1, 230 Lehigh 0 24.2
89% 20 West Virginia 58 41.7, 73 Baylor 14 26.5
89% 9 North Dakota State 59 36.4, 122 South Dakota 14 15.8
88% 11 James Madison 13 35.3, 63 Stony Brook 10 16.5
87% 189 Central Connecticut 49 41.9, 231 Wagner 24 26.0
86% 176 Florida A&M 38 29.9, 219 Morgan State 3 18.9
86% 77 Maryland 63 37.4, 149 Illinois 33 21.8
85% 49 Dartmouth 24 32.8, 123 Harvard 17 13.5
84% 2 Clemson 59 33.5, 62 Florida State 10 17.9
83% 18 Utah 41 32.5, 91 California - Los Angel 10 19.5
82% 74 Jacksonville State 42 40.1, 166 Murray State 15 23.4
81% 178 Southern 41 26.2, 248 Jackson State 7 6.8
81% 112 Rhode Island 21 32.9, 190 William & Mary 10 20.5
80% 158 Pennsylvania 13 30.2, 234 Brown 7 16.4
79% 86 Nebraska 45 44.4, 201 Bethune - Cookman 9 27.5
79% 51 Kennesaw State 38 35.9, 157 Charleston Southern 10 20.6
78% 41 Virginia 31 33.2, 115 North Carolina 21 18.3
75% 94 Ohio 52 38.8, 143 Ball State 14 26.8
75% 92 Troy State 38 35.2, 179 South Alabama 17 23.3
73% 186 Drake 42 32.5, 238 Valparaiso 25 21.8
73% 185 Sacred Heart 49 39.2, 216 Bryant 26 30.8
73% 169 Monmouth 24 35.3, 247 Presbyterian 14 23.7
73% 65 Cincinnati 26 35.9, 132 Southern Methodist 20 25.7
71% 249 Texas Southern 42 35.4, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 25.6
71% 152 Maine 28 31.6, 180 Albany 9 21.3
71% 44 Houston 57 43.8, 88 South Florida 36 32.9
70% 183 Dayton 38 31.3, 244 Butler 28 22.1
70% 47 South Carolina 27 31.2, 87 Tennessee 24 21.5
67% 173 Nicholls State 48 33.9, 177 Incarnate Word 21 26.5
67% 19 Mississippi State 28 27.3, 27 Texas A&M 13 21.1
67% 8 Penn State 30 33.3, 12 Iowa 24 24.0
66% 193 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 35.1, 242 Robert Morris 7 23.3
66% 165 East Tennessee State 45 36.2, 198 Western Carolina 43 28.5
66% 125 Akron 17 28.1, 160 Central Michigan 10 21.0
66% 118 Wofford 42 33.6, 140 Mercer 21 28.4
66% 96 Southeast Missouri Sta 56 36.4, 174 Tennessee - Martin 33 28.1
66% 4 Georgia 36 29.8, 13 Florida 17 22.5
65% 229 Marist 48 39.3, 243 Morehead State 21 35.1
65% 213 Eastern Kentucky 31 37.8, 205 Eastern Illinois 23 32.2
65% 107 Florida International 38 29.8, 161 Western Kentucky 17 24.8
65% 31 Oklahoma State 38 33.9, 30 Texas 35 29.6
64% 218 Texas State - San Marc 27 37.7, 207 New Mexico State 20 34.1
64% 42 Army 37 27.2, 72 Eastern Michigan 22 23.1
64% 40 Boise State 48 32.7, 76 Air Force 38 29.2
63% 127 Coastal Carolina 37 30.9, 170 Georgia State 34 28.2
63% 104 Idaho State 24 38.5, 137 Montana State 17 35.6
63% 64 Vanderbilt 45 25.4, 102 Arkansas 31 22.9
63% 61 California - Davis 49 37.9, 117 Montana 21 35.3
63% 35 South Dakota State 38 32.9, 55 Illinois State 28 30.3
62% 182 Massachusetts 22 40.1, 210 Connecticut 17 37.9
62% 79 Delaware 40 32.4, 69 Towson 36 30.3
60% 84 Minnesota 38 27.5, 75 Indiana 31 26.0
60% 46 Syracuse 51 35.5, 29 North Carolina State 41 34.1
58% 245 Stetson 56 30.8, 246 Davidson 53 29.4
58% 217 Alabama A&M 27 24.6, 232 Alabama State 10 23.0
51% 138 Middle Tennessee State 51 33.7, 156 Old Dominion 17 33.5
49% 100 Louisiana Tech 21 33.2, 121 Florida Atlantic 13 33.3
48% 148 Furman 28 31.7, 168 The Citadel 17 32.0
48% 111 Louisiana - Lafayette 47 33.7, 116 Arkansas State 43 34.0
44% 145 Wyoming 34 23.0, 150 Colorado State 21 23.8
43% 37 Iowa State 40 30.4, 21 Texas Tech 31 31.4
42% 167 Alcorn State 27 29.0, 188 Prairie View 13 30.1
38% 222 Savannah State 32 19.3, 226 Norfolk State 3 21.4
37% 228 Lamar 24 26.6, 240 Stephen F. Austin 17 30.5
37% 192 Northern Colorado 42 26.5, 202 Southern Utah 39 30.6
37% 126 Tulane 24 22.6, 154 Tulsa 17 25.2
37% 108 Weber State 35 18.1, 105 North Dakota 30 21.3
37% 59 Michigan State 23 21.9, 16 Purdue 13 24.6
37% 45 Georgia Tech 49 31.1, 58 Virginia Tech 28 34.8
37% 43 Boston College 27 27.7, 23 Miami - Florida 14 30.8
37% 36 Washington State 41 26.1, 39 Stanford 38 29.0
36% 151 Southern Illinois 49 27.8, 131 Missouri State 35 31.5
36% 90 Toledo 51 38.5, 89 Western Michigan 24 42.9
36% 57 Arizona State 38 28.8, 60 Southern California 35 32.1
35% 208 Portland State 41 33.4, 206 Sacramento State 14 38.7
35% 164 Columbia 17 21.4, 103 Yale 10 27.6
35% 119 Nevada - Reno 28 22.3, 80 San Diego State 24 27.5
35% 114 Wake Forest 56 32.2, 120 Louisville 35 37.2
34% 233 Lafayette 21 19.4, 221 Fordham 13 25.7
34% 225 South Carolina State 27 23.5, 172 Howard 21 32.5
34% 211 McNeese State 23 17.3, 144 Central Arkansas 21 25.8
34% 191 California Poly 38 29.5, 187 Northern Arizona 28 34.4
33% 204 San Jose State 50 29.5, 153 Nevada - Las Vegas 37 35.9
33% 194 North Carolina - Charl 20 19.1, 134 Southern Mississippi 17 28.2
33% 141 Indiana State 43 22.3, 139 Youngstown State 17 33.0
33% 113 Arizona 44 30.8, 52 Oregon 15 37.8
33% 106 Western Illinois 37 23.4, 53 Northern Iowa 17 32.2
33% 101 Northern Illinois 7 17.4, 85 Brigham Young 6 25.4
33% 93 Pittsburgh 54 21.7, 32 Duke 45 29.9
33% 82 Northwestern 31 21.7, 28 Wisconsin 17 30.0
32% 99 Georgia Southern 34 21.5, 26 Appalachian State 14 33.0
30% 34 Kentucky 15 27.5, 14 Missouri 14 35.8
21% 163 New Hampshire 34 10.6, 98 Villanova 0 26.0
20% 97 Kansas 27 18.6, 38 Texas Christian 26 32.3
17% 252 Delaware State 28 22.9, 197 North Carolina Central 13 40.7
14% 95 California 12 14.9, 10 Washington 10 31.6
11% 250 Gardner - Webb 35 7.1, 175 Campbell 7 33.7
8% 171 Oregon State 41 20.5, 48 Colorado 34 47.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.72 55 0.70 15 1.16 17 0.97 17 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 72 82.9 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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